What do we think about this matchup? Nadal obviously has the H2H advantage, though that didn't help Federer in this tourny. Both had to battle back from potential losses, though Murray started down and cleaned up while Nadal lost the middle set. Murray did beat Nadal in their most recent meeting and Nadal may have a small injury. I'm thinking Murray may be the play, especially being the dog.
To begin with I leaned towards Nadal but I dont think theres much value in the line. I think it will be a close game which makes me favour the 'over' rather than backing either player. Potential 3 setter for sure.
These games always look like they'll be potential 3 setters and seem to end up straight sets victories - value is nearly always on playing the under as the over line gets pushed up.
Nadal was complaining about his knee after the Tsonga match and how he's unsure of how the Murray match will go if it doesn't improve. It could mean nothing, which is most likely, but he did look off against Tsonga. I think the play is Murray or nothing. Actually, waiting to put in a live play after seeing Rafa move around some is probably the best idea.