[Owls]

I was surprised to see before yesterday s final to find so many backing Nadal even after he had lost 6 straight to Djokovic. All kinds of ancillary unimportant factors were brought up, like how Nadal had an extra day's rest(these guys are in phenomenal shape 42 hours rest is plenty for Djoko), how it was hot and humid (as if it would be only hot for Djokovic and not for Nadal!), how draining it was to go 5 sets for Djoko the prev match, breathing problems, etc.

I am not a fan of Djokovic's excuses such as allergies, etc, or Nadal's excuses like the bad knee, I am a fan of no excuses and the class of Federer. So as soon as saw the line at -145 for Djokovic, I realized how too many were buying into their own theories of what affects a tennis player's performance, without any proof of their validity. And Nadal money poured in. In 2009 Nadal was coming off a draining 5 setter in the semis to only comeback to take out Fed in 5 grueling sets. Once again, the theory of being drained from a previous match is bogus when taken under the microscope of cold hard historical analysis.

Let's face facts. The popularity of a tennis player inflates their image and value among the public. That's how you get Nadal as an underdog to Federer even though he owns him in GS haed to head matches. Fed is the most popular player. Followed by Nadal. Djokovic is still mostly considered just a hot player on a good run, physically fragile, which is totally absurd. This even affected the judgement of the linesmen, as it was clear as day that most of the calls were going against Djokovic. If you took popularity and reputation aside and handicapped the final, Djokovic should have been -300. I bet he wins 75 percent of the time against Nadal in a hard court GS final. And Nadal should have been -200 over Federer in the semis, because of the favorable matchup and Federer's weak one handed backhand, and low margin of error play, very vulnerable to Nadal's topspin strokes and grinding rallies type of play.

After watching Djokovic operate in the past year in Grand Slams, it is clear that he is the most talented player in the game at this time. He is at a higher level than even Nadal and Federer. He combines the rare qualities of hitting consistently big groundstrokes which result in lots of winners without committing a lot of unforced errors. Nadal's big edge over everybody is his consistency, his lack of unforced errors, the high margin of error his topspin heavy game gives him, which results in very few balls going into the net or going long. And of course his footspeed and hitting on the run. But Djokovic trumps all that because he has one thing that Nadal still lacks: positional awareness and sharp powerful groundstrokes, along with the best return of service in the game. Djokovic, when he played his standard game of hitting deep but conservative shots, mostly towards Nadal's backhand, he put Nadal on the defensive, gained superior positioning, eventually setting up the rally for a high percentage winner on a short ball hitting to the open court towards Nadal's forehand. This standard play was what gave Djokovic the easy wins in sets 2 and 3, and for half of set 4 and set 5. So why didn't he keep this up?

It's the one weakness that Djokovic has that made him inferior to Nadal and Federer for all these years until 2011. He has so much talent that he never needed to focus 100% mentally on his best strategy of baseline play to win matches. He would take shortcuts, trying to finish a rally quickly, with a lower percentage groundstroke. Out of fatigue or lack of patience, or desire to hit the "awesome looking" winner, he would throw in a bunch of unforced errors trying to make something happen when nothing was there. When he was trying to hit a low percentage winner off a well hit deep ball from Nadal early in the rally, Nadal was able to climb back into the match with each Djokovic unforced error.

But this is the new and improved Djokovic. He is more fit now, which is a huge boost mentally because he can now play the higher percentage long rally game, using his superior ground strokes to gain better positioning in a point to eventually win with a higher percentage winner on a short return. This has reduced Djokovic's number of unforced errors relative to winners. And made him dominant. Djokovic, with improved fitness, serves better, but more importantly, can be more patient with his great ground strokes to grind away at his inferior opponents, reducing the number of risky shots and boosting his winners to unforced errors ratio. He returned to this strategy just in time late in set 5 to spurt ahead of a steadfast but tiring Nadal.

It is also why Nadal will only be able to beat Djokovic if he has a mental day off, which can happen about 20-30% of the time. Thus the -300. When they are both mentally and physically 100%, Nadal cannot touch Djokovic.

[Blax0r]

Interesting insight, but would've been more impressive/credible if this were posted 30 hrs earlier.

[Owls]

Sorry, I should have posted it earlier but I didn't have any motivation to write such a long message until after the elation of winning my hard won bet.

I also want to add a couple of other things about Djokovic and Nadal. If you watched the match, you could see that Djokovic played more towards the front of the baseline, and Nadal was well beyond the back of the baseline. There is a reason for this, which I don't see any analysts mention. Because Nadal has such an unorthodox swing which produces a ton of topspin, it takes him longer to complete his swing than a Federer or a Djokovic. He needs the extra time to hit his shots, which is why he sits so far back in the baseline. It is not out of stubborness, it is out of necessity. If he played too close to the baseline, he would be dead meat on deep balls, because he just wouldn't have the time to pull the trigger on his topspin heavy swing, especially on the forehand side. That is why Nadal seems to hit better on running forehands than on standing forehands, because he has that much more time to hit his ground stroke.

But against a player with such good powerful groundstrokes as Djokovic, this positional disadvantage of playing so far back is magnified and you see it with each shot in a rally, Djokovic getting a little bit better positioning, eventually setting up an easy winner.

The further beyond the baseline that you play, the ball has more room to move outside of the center of the court, and out wide. It forces one to hit the ball from bad positions on the court. It is all about angles.
This is also why I don't think Nadal will have much success as his footspeed slows down as he ages. He needs to run well because he plays so far back behind the baseline, forcing him to hit more balls from out wide, and then having to sprint to the other side when his opponent jerks him back with a shot in the opposite direction.

[EaglesPhan36]

All kinds of ancillary unimportant factors were brought up, like how Nadal had an extra day's rest(these guys are in phenomenal shape 42 hours rest is plenty for Djoko), how it was hot and humid (as if it would be only hot for Djokovic and not for Nadal!), how draining it was to go 5 sets for Djoko the prev match, breathing problems, etc.

Unimportant? If a guy is having troubling breathing at various times during a match and looking totally gassed during some points of previous matches, I'd say it's a pretty important factor to consider into the overall picture. The line was pretty accurate given how Djokovic had played the last couple of rounds/physical questions about fatigue, etc.

If you think he is under valued, then unload on him any time you see the price you like ... but I whole heartedly disagree about these other factors being "anicillary" as you call them. If you don't factor potential fatigue/injury news/etc. into the equation you're not really looking at the entire match, you're simply saying Player A > Player B so he should win. At the end of the day, the result speaks for how evenly this match was and Nadal had the match on his racket in the 5th to close it out. So I don't really think anyone was under or over valued here as Nadal had every chance to win and obviously, Djokovic kept fighting and turned out as your winner.

[Owls]

Fatigue is always an issue in tennis. But that is from playing the current match, not from after effects from playing a long match 2 days ago. These are professional athletes. Djokovic is 24 years old. Nadal 25. These players are in prime physical condition. They recover quickly. 2 days is plenty of time for them to get back to peak condition for a match. I think you bought into the media and Djokovic hammed up his breathing for the cameras. The thing I don't like about Djokovic is he overexaggerates everything and starves for attention. You telling me someone plays this level of tennis for 6 hours under hot conditions has breathing problems? You fell for his trick. I wasn't going to.

Djokovic now has the fitness level to crush Nadal and Federer. Before, he didn't and would try to win points quickly resulting in unnecessary errors. I did think Djokovic was undervalued and that is why I unloaded him, as you say. As for injuries, Djokovic had no injuries and neither did Nadal. They weren't hobbling around in the semis.

The only thing keeping Djokovic back from crushing all his opponents in 3 sets is mental. That is his only weakness, and he's improved on that tremendously to where he can overcome the tougher spots in a match without completely falling apart like he did in the past. Instead of giving up the match, he'll just give up a set now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well you've got your opinion and I've got mine. Fatigue adds up during the course of a long tournament like a Grand Slam, obviously taking a bigger toll the more time a player spends on court and depending on their age. Not saying he's gassed from one five set match, but it was obvious early that he was not right as far as his ability to get loose and play freely. That's not just because he woke up on the wrong side of the bed IMO. The breathing stuff has been well documented for him in Melbourne for years. He's allergic to something [flowers or whatever] and it has hindered him at different times during matches. I don't think he's "hamming it up" for the cameras with this. It's certainly not the #1 reason you should go against him or not back him, but it was certainly a factor worth considering.

[shari91]

Nice write up Owls. Not sure if I can agree that he was undervalued though. Not only did he close 5 cents lower than he opened, but the closing line only gave Nadal a 41% chance of winning. If anything - and because you've stated that fatigue or his breathing issues shouldn't have been considered at all - one could almost say he was overvalued in this match seeing as how it went to 5 sets and Mr 41% Nadal was in a dominant position half way through the 5th. Definitely looking forward to what happens at the French. GL

[Owls]

I would not bet against Djokovic in Grand Slams this year, and that includes the French Open. I really think Federer is the only guy that has a somewhat decent chance against him, unless Murray continues improving. Nadal just doesn't have the game that bother Djokovic at the moment.

[shari91]

I would not bet against Djokovic in Grand Slams this year, and that includes the French Open. I really think Federer is the only guy that has a somewhat decent chance against him, unless Murray continues improving. Nadal just doesn't have the game that bother Djokovic at the moment.

I wasn't necessarily referring to Nadal at the French... I meant in general. He's never made it past the Semis. Even after beating Nadal in Rome and Madrid last year, he couldn't get past Fed, who couldn't get past Nadal. So if he's going to at least make the Finals for the first time, you'd hope it would be now if he's going to prove he's the consummate all-around player because your legacy doesn't reflect anything other than Slams. Time will tell. Either way, he's definitely made tennis more fun to watch now that it's not just Fed and Nadal winning everything. Murray improving should help this year too.