[benrama]

odds on the Aus Open telecast here just had Nadal at $7 to win the Aus Open? (via tabs sportsbet)

When Nadal is playing Federer who he has the complete wood over in recent times? (note: line just opened for Fed/Nadal at Pinny at +156, I jumped on it within 5 seconds and by the time I could actually place a bet it was down to +128 )

Anyone else seeing futures on their books?

[H1Cypher]

I'm wondering- sounds like you caught the line right when it opened. So when it went from 156 to 128- was that people just betting on it before you? or was that the bookie editing it before you could place your bet.

I mean were you really that slow by 5 seconds?

this seems to happen to me alot.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got Nadal at +780 a few rounds ago, so that would have been a great price you snagged. Although given he has to go through an in-form Federer and potentially Djokovic ... might have been fairly accurate of his realistic chances of winning.

[shari91]

odds on the Aus Open telecast here just had Nadal at $7 to win the Aus Open? (via tabs sportsbet)

When Nadal is playing Federer who he has the complete wood over in recent times? (note: line just opened for Fed/Nadal at Pinny at +156, I jumped on it within 5 seconds and by the time I could actually place a bet it was down to +128 )

Anyone else seeing futures on their books?

Futures are varied with him all over now.

Pinny:7001 N. Djokovic 2.150
7002 R. Nadal 5.750
7003 R. Federer 3.750
7004 A. Murray 7.000

bet365: Djoko $2.00, Fed $3.75, Murray and Nadal $6.00

Sporting: Djoko $2.10, Fed $3.75, Nadal $5.50, Murray $5.60

Betfair (the sharpest of the lot): Djoko $2.20, Fed $4.00, Nadal $6.40, Murray $7.00

Take your pick! But no, I don't think Nadal can win this after that match tonight and his performance here so far in Melb.

[EaglesPhan36]

5Dimes
Novak Djokovic +118
Roger Federer +305
Rafael Nadal +535
Andy Murray +585
David Ferrer +8500
Kei Nishikori +21500

[manutd19]

I will bet against him in the semifinals for 1.5 units, if he manages to beat Federer, then i wil pick Djoko to beat him in the final for 5 units. Nadal isn't 100% and it's affecting his game. Not a great service. Now he can beat other players like this, but i don't think he can beat those two not 100% fit, at least not on the hard court.

[benrama]

I'm wondering- sounds like you caught the line right when it opened. So when it went from 156 to 128- was that people just betting on it before you? or was that the bookie editing it before you could place your bet.

I mean were you really that slow by 5 seconds?

this seems to happen to me alot.

It's automated - has to be. What happens at Pinny is that when a line gets pounded they just start dropping it rapidly until they get bets the other way - it's their way of rapidly finding out the natural resistance points on a betting line.

[BettingWizard]

8/1 is nuts, he's gonna win this thing

[benrama]

Thanks for the lines guys - looks like the +800 line was short-lived - had to be - and Pinny/5D now have it about right - I'd expect Nadal to be about +170 ($2.70) against Joker.

I still think Nadal is Federer's kryptonite at this point in his career. I wasn't overly impressed with Fed against Del Potro - he just did what he had to do, and Del Potro couldn't take advantage of the big points - e.g. 1 of 6 from break points. Nadal is different, he plays the big points as well as Federer, and he is able to pound Federer's backhand which still can't take repeated high lobbed shots from Nadal in a long rally.

I thought Nadal in set 3 and 4 looked like a beast - and this is more representative of what he'll be like against Federer than the way the match began. So Nadal +130 to +135 all the way for me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Easy to look like a beast when your opponent is spraying the ball all over the court like Berdych did. He missed a lot of easy volleys and he started pressing. You could tell after he lost that 2nd set tie break that his level/confidence dropped and of course, Rafa's went up a notch and he pounced.

This match will show you if it's all mental about this match-up because if you look at it based on where both guys are at right now on this surface, the edge goes to Federer. I go back to Doha and look at Nadal's match against Monfils, that was embarrassing and it was all about his faulty serve. It will be a fight for sure, but if Rafa comes out and plays like he did in the 1st two sets vs. Berdych, Federer will win IMO.

[benrama]

Yes, will be an interesting game for sure. As I mentioned, I think 1st set will decide the match, I expect Federer to give 100% to win that 1st set and I expect him to push really, really hard to get up a break early - if he can do that, and hold onto it, then Fed will have the confidence to win.

Nadal would know he can't play like he did against Berdych in the 1st two sets, as Federer won't have any unforced error binges during the match like Berdych inevitably does - you can go down 2-0 to Berdych and always still feel a chance.

Rafa is battling his shoulder and knee injuries so I think this is partly why the line is where it is - but Federer still hasn't shown how he can combat his backhand achilles heel against Nadal; if Nadal just has to get into long rallies to win the points then Fed is in trouble.

I simply can't not take Nadal in this spot at +130 type odds, and if he wins the 1st set against Fed I'll jump on him again to win the match even with high juice (at what then will probably be -200 or so) - Federer can't win this match if he goes down early I'm convinced of that.