1. 01-20-12 09:07 AM #1
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Tomic v Raonic prop for points

    Raonic ranked 25th
    Tomic ranked 38th

    Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

    Raonic -13 -110
    Tomic +13 +100

    Outright
    Raonic -300
    Tomic +250

    Max bet is to win 200.

    Prices are valid until start of the Tomic v Federer match.



    If you know (or are pretty certain) I'd take your word. We can settle up on 1st April. Please don't ask otherwise.
    If you are a Tennis Forum regular (outside Slams) or have over 1000 posts and 1yr+ forum membership, post up 10% now for action.
    Anyone else, please post up fully for action.
    Last edited by Optional; 01-20-12 at 09:12 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-20-12 11:35 AM #2
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    Not posting up :|


    Tomic +13 +100, risk 25
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-20-12 11:36 AM #3
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Not posting up :| Tomic +13 +100, risk 25
    You're on.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-21-12 10:49 AM #4
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Anyone else want a piece of this before I adjust the odds to take into account the Raonic loss in the next half hour or so?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-21-12 10:56 AM #5
    shari91
    shari91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-23-10
    Posts: 32,661
    Betpoints: 1689

    give me a sec... i'll be in
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-21-12 10:59 AM #6
    shari91
    shari91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-23-10
    Posts: 32,661
    Betpoints: 1689

    Hey Opti - Are they all in bets ie if a player gets injured in Feb and doesn't play again until past April? Just making sure
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-21-12 11:03 AM #7
    shari91
    shari91's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-23-10
    Posts: 32,661
    Betpoints: 1689

    Actually either way, I'll put 100 on Tomic +13 +100. If you want me to post up, let me know.
    Points Awarded:

    Optional gave shari91 100 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-21-12 12:53 PM #8
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    Actually either way, I'll put 100 on Tomic +13 +100. If you want me to post up, let me know.
    Nah that's fine. You're on.

    Got caught up playing poker. Will redo odds a bit later if anyone else wants a go first.

    Think I'll add a 3 way with Nishikori too.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-21-12 12:55 PM #9
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by shari91 View Post
    Hey Opti - Are they all in bets ie if a player gets injured in Feb and doesn't play again until past April? Just making sure
    Yes, action no matter what happens.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-21-12 04:08 PM #10
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    Tomic +13, risk 175
    Tomic +250, risk 20
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-22-12 12:20 AM #11
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Tomic +13, risk 175 Tomic +250, risk 20
    You're on.



    Betting still available up until start of the Tomic/Fed match.

    Will update odds after it's over.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-22-12 10:17 AM #12
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    The +13 was a bit of a gift.

    Updated Odds

    Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

    Raonic -3½ -110
    Tomic +3½ -110

    Outright
    Raonic -245
    Tomic +150

    3 Way with Nishikori
    Raonic -130
    Tomic +185
    Nishikori +100

    Max bet is to win 200.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-22-12 10:26 AM #13
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    that 3 way line is a ways off.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-22-12 10:54 AM #14
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    that 3 way line is a ways off.
    40 cents juice on a 3 way prop isn't off. The other two are just low in comparison.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-22-12 10:55 AM #15
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    That isn't 40 cents juice!

    A no juice three way with even odds would be +200 a side.

    We need to send you back to bookmaking school.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-22-12 10:56 AM #16
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Add it up if you like. 41.03 cents actually.

    And give me a break Yis, I only had to think about some juice to help cover your first day gift
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-22-12 10:58 AM #17
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Sorry make that 39.23 cents. 41.03 would have been with Roanic at -140
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-22-12 11:00 AM #18
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    3 lines are:

    56.52%
    50%
    35.09%

    Adds up to 141.61%
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-22-12 11:06 AM #19
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Oh yeah 141.61%... I had Nishikori 10 cents higher in my calcs the second time, excuse me I'm a bit tired.

    But at the risk of sounding a bit thick here, isn't that 41.61 cents?
    Last edited by Optional; 01-22-12 at 11:29 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-22-12 12:08 PM #20
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    Cents is a little different, I think. If you went with cents, it'd be off by even more, but the fairest way of looking at "hold" is to do the implied probabilities of each line and seeing what it adds up to. Here, the bookie's hold would be 41.61%.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-22-12 12:28 PM #21
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    How do I calculate how many "cents" is in the line then?

    But my initial point still stands I think. Call it cents or hold or whatever, 40% overround is not off for a prop market.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 01-22-12 11:35 PM #22
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Updated Odds

    Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

    Raonic -3½ -110
    Tomic +3½ -110

    Outright
    Raonic -210
    Tomic +135

    3 Way with Nishikori
    Raonic -105
    Tomic +185
    Nishikori -120

    Max bet is to win 200.
    Last edited by Optional; 01-22-12 at 11:42 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 01-26-12 01:02 PM #23
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    Can I do Raonic -3.5 (-110), 110 to win 100?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 01-26-12 02:18 PM #24
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Can I do Raonic -3.5 (-110), 110 to win 100?
    Yes.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 01-26-12 02:30 PM #25
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    ok add that to my bets then
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 01-26-12 02:53 PM #26
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Done
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 01-29-12 11:43 PM #27
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    New rankings released.


    Updated Odds

    Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

    Raonic -1½ -110
    Tomic +1½ -110


    3 Way with Nishikori
    Raonic +145
    Tomic +165
    Nishikori -180

    Max bet is to win 100.


    Attachment 37127
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 01-30-12 08:47 AM #28
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    Raonic -1½ -110, 55 to win 50
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 01-30-12 10:40 AM #29
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    You're on. Added to the sheet.

    Nice result for Nishikori eh! Top 20. Wonder who the last Japanese was to do that.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 01-30-12 12:11 PM #30
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    so is Raonic expected to lose a lot of points soon?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 01-30-12 12:38 PM #31
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Well maybe not lose, but he won the San Jose 250 and got another 300 points for runner up in the Memphis 500 during this period last year, so he can only make 200 max by winning both this time, and will more likely lose 100+ over those 2 weeks.

    It will all come down to the last two 1000 events though. Raonic made 75 points and the other two both made 35 points in those 2 last year. And this year all three of them are more ready for those two events imho. A semi-final or finals appearance in those should be enough for any of them to take it. That's my thinking anyway.

    Should be a good finish.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 01-30-12 12:43 PM #32
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Updating Odds (after a re-think)

    Who will be ranked higher after the Miami 1000 event on 1st April?

    Raonic -1½ -110
    Tomic +1½ -110


    3 Way with Nishikori
    Raonic +170
    Tomic +180
    Nishikori -220

    Max bet is 100 risk+/win-.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 01-30-12 12:48 PM #33
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    still not biting on the 3 way

    Well maybe not lose, but he won the San Jose 250 and got another 300 points for runner up in the Memphis 500 during this period last year, so he can only make 200 max by winning both this time, and will more likely lose 100+ over those 2 weeks.
    Yeah that's what I mean. He's losing points because during this upcoming period last year, he did better than the others.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 01-30-12 12:59 PM #34
    Optional
    Optional's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 57,803
    Betpoints: 9216

    Oh well. Hopefully I'll get a chance to balance out the action before this ends. None of them playing this week, which will drop 20 from Milos for Joburg last year, and whatever points Tomic got for the Burnie Challenger last year.

    Then it's Davis Cup.

    Where they play the week after that, 13th Feb tournies, could make a difference too. I suspect all three might opt for the San Jose 250 event, But there is a also an indoors event in Rotterdam for 500 points on and if one of them opts for that and does well it could shake things right up too.

    10th in the 12pm... sucks to me today.

    I'm quite keen on a dog at Burnie today btw, Ben Mitchell to beat Duckworth.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 01-30-12 01:51 PM #35
    yisman
    yisman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-01-08
    Posts: 75,682
    Betpoints: 246162

    I'll try to bet on it later
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
123 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Tennis Betting | Next Thread »