I know he's playing well, I know he's made a Slam final, but should he be favored over Rafa and/or Roger?
Australian Open
Mon 1/19 12:00PM (EST)
Andy Murray +275
Roger Federer +280
Rafael Nadal +430
Novak Djokovic +655
Jo Wilfred Tsonga +2000
Gilles Simon +4500
David Nalbandian +5000
Ernests Gulbis +6600
Andy Roddick +7000
Juan Martin del Potro +7000
Gael Monfils +7500
Richard Gasquet +11500
Fernando Verdasco +14000
Marin Cilic +17500
Kei Nishikori +19000
Lleyton Hewitt +21500
Marat Safin +22500
James Blake +24000
Marcos Baghdatis +25000
Fernando Gonzalez +26000
Tomas Berdych +26000
David Ferrer +35000
Stanislas Wawrinka +39000
Ivo Karlovic +43000
Radek Stepanek +43000
Paul Henri Mathieu +45000
Mario Ancic +46000
Robin Soderling +46000
Philipp Kohlschreiber +52500
Mikhail Youzhny +59000
Igor Andreev +60000
Mardy Fish +62500
Tommy Haas +69000
Tommy Robredo +70000
Nicolas Almagro +95000
Nicolas Kiefer +95000
Dmitry Tursunov +95000
Feliciano Lopez +95000
Juan Monaco +95000
Andreas Seppi +95000
Nadal has as many Grand Slam titles on hard court as Murray. Plus Murray made it to a final on hard, while Nadal hasn't. And he played better the last few month, so yes he should.
Federer probably not, but he beat Federer three times in a row that's probably why his odds dropped that much.
I think he started at about +400-+500 when I looked last year, guess it dropped a lot after Friday.
Everything is in the right alignment for Murray: he's playing by far the best in his career, the other big three are off form, and the opponents whose style trouble him the most are either out injured (Davydenko), wildly off form (Baghdatis) or just plain fat and unfit (Nalbandian). He's now beaten Federer in their last 4 meetings, and Nadal and Djokovic twice in a row.
The question for me is whether Federer can step it up again as he did in the US Open - personally I think Murray won't be overawed again.
I'm curious how Gilles Simon gets on btw. He'll be seeded 6th with Davy out, and will have a good shot at the semis if he plays well. If it's Nadal there, he would have a fair chance of beating him. Monfils might be worth watching also, he's really improving fast under the new coach.