1. #1
    tevari
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    Tevari's dog hunting thread - US Open 2011

    Grand slams usually yield a pretty high profit for books, because in actuality, most matches with a favorite of anywhere between -120 and -200 are virtually a pick'em, and bettors flock to big name players. In this thread I'll be picking 2 dogs a day, that I feel have the most value.

    No odds out yet, but here are some matches that I feel will have value off the bat.

    Sela over Bellucci - Bellucci not great on hard courts, Sela is. Fitness and stamina will be an issue here for Sela, but his return game is pretty on point, and doesn't yield a ton of break points. Interesting what they odds will be.

    Matosevic over Chela - More of a longshot here, Matosevic with some decent results this summer, Chela has been MIA, and will probably be a bit rusty.

    Dodig over Davydenko - Not much has to be said here. Davy is in awful awful form, struggling with his first serve, and can't seem to stay in long rallies. Beaten by Fish 6-0 6-2 in Cincy, and Stakhovsky in straight sets in Winston Salem. Dodig on the other hand earned the win of his life, beating Nadal in 3 sets, and also took Monfils to 3 sets before being forced to retire from fatigue. I expect Davydenko to open around -220 or so.

    Marino over Dulko - Better results since the summer started for Marino. I feel her game starting to come around, Dulko has been unimpressive as of late, will wait to see what the odds are.

    Pervak over Ivanovic - Fading the has been hottie, if not in this match, surely her second round. Could go 3. Ivanovic most likely to prevail, but not without some hiccups. I could see great value with Pervak here, who is no shlub. Probably around +350 or 400.

    Sevastova over Dushevina - VD has been playing a lot of tennis as of late with disappointing results. Sevastova earned a straight set win over Sofia Arvidsson a few days ago in Dallas, where she won near 70% of her first serve points, and about a 50% clip on her second serve. Has a shot.

  2. #2
    innn
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    totally agree with Sela

  3. #3
    iMxth3xbossx5000
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    Aye Tevari whats your BEST 'small' underdog play for the US Open qualifiers? I been handicapping these scrubs at about a 60:40 win ratio. It's hard capping no namers but if you look through each individual matchup, theres always like 1 or 2 matchups where you get a clear cut winner at a really decent price on favorite or excellent as an underdog. I had Go Soeda yesterday and he won easily.. anything good 4 today?

  4. #4
    tevari
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    Only had 1 play this morning (Sijsling @ even money) and he lost.

  5. #5
    iMxth3xbossx5000
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    To be dead honest tevari, I was studying these matches last night and that was 1 of 3 matches I was lookin at and thinking about pullin the trigger on. I was on the other side however and LEANING towards Sijsling's opponent but never actually played that game

  6. #6
    jdrb
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    There's one dog I'll be very interested in. That's Rybarikova over Safarova. I don't think anybody knows a thing about her but she goes alright on her day. She's made the third round of the US open twice in three appearances and has some solid results this year. She pushed an in-form Lisicki in Birmingham, beat Cetkovska and Kvitova in an ITF event (yeah I know no one gives a rats arse about these tourneys). She also held her ground against Azarenka in Wimbledon before retiring injured. Safarova's a flake so if she's off her game I can't see why Rybarikova can't make an impact.

  7. #7
    tevari
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    Safarova is a flake I agree, but I don't know enough about Rybarikova's game to make a confident play

  8. #8
    noober
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    marino has actually been struggling recently

  9. #9
    tevari
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    Monday's plays:

    Sela +170
    Hercog +100

  10. #10
    iMxth3xbossx5000
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    I really like Potito Starace over Michael Berrer. Also Ryan Sweeting over that herb Denis Istomin. If I had to pick underdogs, these would be my 2 guys. Any opinions on these tevari?

  11. #11
    tevari
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    don't like sweeting. the king of russian challengers istomin will take it, i think. i mean he stands a chance but i really have no confidence in sweeting at all, his second serve belongs on the women's tour. no opinion on starace. dude is wildly inconsistent, but berrer blows too.

  12. #12
    tevari
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    Adding: Doi +165

  13. #13
    saints1856
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    Why is Xavier Malisse -155 over Marcel Granollers? Malisse hasnt been in good form lately and is lower ranked than Granollers.... Let's go Marcel!

  14. #14
    Allure
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    Rankings don't mean anything in tennis.

  15. #15
    JNic
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    Bellucci won't lose.. You have to realize that he has a monster serve and skipped the whole entire clay court season to practice on hard courts (gstaad where he won his first title, hamburg where he defended semis last year). He has some bad losses but with timing on big serves and movement isn't at his best. His attacking game is completely underrated, he his going to hit a ton of aces and he isn't going to lose if his first serve percentage is high

  16. #16
    JNic
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    Good hit with Sela. I was so surprised Bellucci folded up 2 sets and 3-1 in that 3rd set. Just shocked

  17. #17
    tevari
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    Forgot to add, 100 dollar units

    Monday's results:

    Sela - Win
    Hercog - Win
    Doi - Loss

    US Open YTD: 2-1 +170.00

  18. #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Nice day sire.

  19. #19
    tevari
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    thank ya, folks

  20. #20
    tevari
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    Tuesday:

    Dodig +110
    Dellacqua +160
    Rus +210
    Last edited by tevari; 08-29-11 at 10:39 PM.

  21. #21
    JNic
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    Just to keep in mind, Souza match is included on the wednesday first round matches. No idea why matches on wednesday? must be cause of transportation problems with irene

  22. #22
    tevari
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    Thanks, yea, didn't see that till you posted it.

    Scratching him all together, but adding (for Tuesday):

    Rus +210

  23. #23
    tevari
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    and for kicks:

    86722233-18/30/11 9:09am$300.00
    $235.07
    Pending5 Team Parlay



    Pending8/30/11 11:00am ATP Tennis 197 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -1780* vs Yen-Hsun Lu



    Pending8/30/11 2:00pm ATP Tennis 210 Fernando Verdasco -415* vs Jarkko Nieminen



    Pending8/30/11 12:30pm ATP Tennis 338 Jurgen Melzer -820* vs Eric Prodon



    Pending8/30/11 11:00am WTA Tennis 546 Sabine Lisicki -1280* vs Alona Bondarenko



    Pending8/30/11 11:00am ATP Tennis 293 David Ferrer -800* vs Igor Andreev

  24. #24
    tevari
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    Dodig loses, Rus wins. Waiting on Dellacqua. Parlay hit but I won't include it in my win/loss record

  25. #25
    tevari
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    Dodig - Loss
    Rus - Win
    Dellacqua - Loss

    YTD: 3-3 +180

    Wednesday:

    Sock +235
    Hercog +215

  26. #26
    tevari
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    Adding for 2 units:

    McHale +185

  27. #27
    tevari
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    Hercog loses, McHale wins, waiting on jack in the sock

  28. #28
    tevari
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    Excellent day!

    McHale - Win
    Sock - Win
    Hercog - Loss

    YTD: 5-4 +685.00

  29. #29
    tevari
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    Thursday:

    Zheng +270
    Cetkovska +120
    Kukushkin +175

  30. #30
    chinoloco212
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    mirjana lucic toms get on it!

  31. #31
    face
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    donald young +265 small bet

  32. #32
    tevari
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    Zheng up 4-0 in the first. Let's go! Cetkovska pushed.

  33. #33
    Glitch
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    nice thread. keep it up.

    kukushkin is looking very evenly matched with granollers. if granollers wins the first set, im gonna take kuk live at huge odds.

  34. #34
    tevari
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    Zheng blew a set lead, what can you do...

  35. #35
    Sactown
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    I was on Zheng too. Not only that, 2nd set, up 3-0 and up 2 break points 15-40 and gets a soft second serve and misses a winner. From there on out she gets destroyed. Now I understand why people say womens tennis is all mental and hardly any physical. unreal

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