halftime lines are easily moved. With a small book like Justbet its probably just a few max wagers. I remember 5dimes moving totals 1/2 point on several of my max wagers for 1h totals during the regular season. So its smaller a number than you would think for a major sport.
Movements of a half point back and forth like that doesn't need to mean one large wager. Pretty common it's moved like that to balance action. That doesn't look like "one huge bet" type movement.
Thanks guys for your replies. Seems like online books' lines move much more frequently than a Vegas book. I'll presume that's because there are more transactions being processed online than at a brick 'n mortar Vegas book. Trying to pick-up any advantage possible from these line movements. Wouldn't put too much weight on a line moving on a $500 play verse say a $5,000+ one. Of course never know if a wealthy player betting 1,000's, has any more insight than an average Joe betting a hundred bucks. In any case, SBR is good enough to display the movements in real-time, so wonder what (if anything) can be gained from this info.
From my experience, for every line movement on a fave that wins, there's one that loses. Seems like line movements on weekends, holidays & national televised events should be faded more so than a line movement on a weekday non-prime game. But as always in this industry, there's no rhyme & reason with the stats and info to the outcome of the event that I see. I presume SBR, et al publish these line movements, so that we can use this info to our advantage. However, have not discovered one that is profoundly prosperous. Have any of you? If anything, this info is more of a disadvantage that just even more confuses you, and is that why it's openly published?
I've noticed steady line movements on totals like 208 to 207.5 to 207 to 206.5 to 206 often win, meaning if the total is consistently going lower the under wins and vice versa, but of course not always. Just didn't know if on that NBA 2nd half back 'n forth, were 2 high rollers liking each side, with 1 say betting $10K on the +4 to move the line to +3.5 and then the other betting say $10K on the -3.5 to move it back to -4. Which if were the case, the line movement doesn't mean a bloody thing. Except if you see the line consistently moving back 'n forth, you may be able to save yourself a potentially critical half a point on the side you want to back, by timing when you place your wager.
Consensus here seems to feel a measly $500 play can move a line a half a point at Justbet, so to me that would greatly favor a high roller. If they want say $10K on the -3.5 and the line is -4, then they simply put $500 on the +4 to bring it down to -3.5, and then pound the $10K wager on the -3.5 the second it drops. Unless they put another $500 on the +3.5 to get the line down to a -3 etc. Doesn't seem to me would be that easy to manipulate a line, for that reason if nothing else, or am I missing something in that assessment? My guess would be that Justbet doesn't allow a $10K wager, and has like a $500 max per wager type of thing, or do they?
They dont do that when you place bet,they steal odds from big live betting shops,and companies like betradar etc.
Basically most of outfits clone odds from few euro books,pinnie and few asians,depending on sport.
Dance: I'd agree with you on opening lines. However, a book that is not adjusting it's own say half-time lines based on it's own action that it's taking, is senseless. In regards to say NBA half-time lines, after the line opens, are you suggesting that Justbet et al is moving its lines by the seconds from say 4 to 3.5 to 4 to 3.5 to 4 based on odds elsewhere, and not the action they themselves are booking?
Please join me in my new thread in the 'Handicapper Think Tank' titled 'Line Movements' as I attempt to document a winning strategy that I'm studying/creating.
Yes i suggest. Take a look at bet365 marathonbet fonbet william hill.... and compare them with Us book that have whole game live bet.
I got impression that most of euro books have same handicap but they just put their own odds. On other hand russians have bit different handicap,and i assume that they invest money in their own traders to make current line.
If you look line movement at bet365 and watch live stream at their site,you make conclusion that their odds are made from artificial intelligence. Sometimes their trader get involved when they think their supplier,supply them with bad line.
Example that im right about same program for most of books.Many times i watch 365 stream and their odds.When guy who work at betradr make mistake in tennis tb instead server,he mistakenly type point as mini break. So many places block this match for betting for next 30 s-1 minute because of system error.
Im bored to write more as english isnt my first language. Take a look at this site and try to understand how does it work.
Yes,most important thing. In europe people dont bet straight as much as americans,even when bet in play games we parlay. So books dont change odds according to H1 and H2 bets,they make odds as per computer algorithm. Pure math,not profit /loss possibility.
Perhaps I'll never know how say Justbet decides on, their changing say an NBA half-time line back 'n forth a half-point by the seconds, is either their own linesmaker adjusting the odds based on their own accepted action or they're using an arbitrary 3rd party. What I do know, is that when you at look the many books published in real-time on SBR, the line vastly varies. Like -4 Even, -3.5 -120, -3.5 -110, -3.5 -105, -3 -130 and so on, where at the same exact time many different books offer different lines/odds on the same event. This would most benefit one who has accounts at all the various books, to shop for the best line/odds to book.
Am seeing some lines move simultaneously with others, and guess that companies may market to and serve different customers, but pool their action together because are owned by the same and/or due to some contract. So they'll always have the same odds/line. None-the-less, safe to say that line movements, like trends, and any other data, have no bearing on who'll next win. However, if by tailing (or fading) the correlation of line movements to previous outcomes consistently produces a winning formula on future outcomes, then you all can rightfully call me a genious.
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