[Sawyer]

Thread Title may sound like a regretful expression but it's not. Actually, I love making mistakes. It's a great way to learn. Making mistakes and losing is the foundation of success. I made many mistakes in my professional betting career and I'm so glad I made these mistakes. I realized and analyzed my mistakes and changed my mentality and betting strategy.


So Let's Start!


1# Staying strictly with +A Books




First, I was happy and I thought it was a good thing to stick with A+ books but then I realized that I was leaving a fortune on table. A+ book means no payout problem, no limit problem (or higher limits) and good customer service but what you get in return? Sharp lines, sharp odds.

You can beat Betsson with ease, you can beat Bwin with ease (Thanks to soft lines and sleepy oddsmakers) but Pinnacle? Not easy to beat these guys.

I can hear you sayin', but hey A+ books have reduced juice, so better odds! You don't like better odds?

Well, A+ books' odds are not higher then ordinary books, actually it's worst. A+ books' Reduced Juice sounds amazing at first glance but it doesn't matter much since "winner side" is usually juiced. Let me show you with an example.

Dortmund 1,65 at softbook. Napoli +0,50 is 2,20.

Dortmund is 1,53 at pinnacle. Napoli +0,50 is 2,75 at Pinnacle.

If you like Dortmund, why pick it 1,53 at Pinnacle? You can get it at much better price. And guess what? If you pick Napoli, you lose..and this is not only one game. It happens all the time. You're doomed to lose if you're picking other side at a very "high price" in A+ book. They offer you winner side at bad odds (so you don't bet it at there) and loser at high odds. Very smart!

But Softbooks are safe?

Softbooks will limit you, some of them are not reliable, you may have payout problems, that's right. But at the end of the day, still it's worth of the risk. Just make your homework and stay away from scam books. When you're limited at one book, switch to another. There's lots of books..

My second mistake was,

2# Staying away from Bonus offers




I was very strict about bonuses, never picked any bonus in my early pro years. I was a pro after all! Pro players don't make bonus hunting. A Pro Handicapper should not be a bonus whore after all, right? Well, I'm working in a brothel now, lol. I'm not a bonus hunter, I'm not even a bonus whore. These words are not enough to describe me. I'm a bonus vampire. I'm a Bonus Lich. I suck bonus, I eat bonus, I drink bonus. Now, I take advantage of every bonus opportunity.. It's free money after all. Make sure odds are not terrible, rollover conditions are not ridicilious (x30 and min. odd req 2,00? Thanks, Bye!) and bookie software is good. Even if you offer me %200 bonus, I wouldn't play at a bookie which uses Everymatrix software.

3# Using a Sick Rating/Unit System instead of Flat Betting




Actually, I'm not against stake/unit systems with a narrow range such as 3-4-5. But if you're betting 1 unit on one game and 20 unit on another, if you have showy, big stake sizes like Lock Of The Month, Play Of The Month, then Good Luck to you! I remember times when I hit %60 ATS and failed to make any profit. Guess why?

4# Lack of discipline, Not keeping record of bets




Can't stress it enough. I was a very messy handicapper. Now, even my desk is tidy. I'm keeping excellent records, it let me see my progress and p/l. I love excel, lol.

5# Not taking advantage of trade opportunities




Arbitrage betting, pregame trading or inplay trading/betting..Whatever! Extra profit is always welcome! Many people don't take advantage of free money opportunties and take unnecessary risks. If I ask you, would you choose a guarantee 50$ or risking 330$ to win 300$, which one you would choose? First one, right? Then why you always pick the 2nd option when you're betting? Because many people are too degenerate, they're so obssessed and addicted with the rush of gambling. Most people are not "betting", they're gambling.

So what's your favourite mistakes? Shoot!

Thanks for reading!

[allin1]

4# is crucial

[DiCaprioHD1995]

Amazing thread

[Hareeba!]

2# Staying away from Bonus offers




I was very strict about bonuses, never picked any bonus in my early pro years. I was a pro after all! Pro players don't make bonus hunting. A Pro Handicapper should not be a bonus whore after all, right? Well, I'm working in a brothel now, lol. I'm not a bonus hunter, I'm not even a bonus whore. These words are not enough to describe me. I'm a bonus vampire. I'm a Bonus Lich. I suck bonus, I eat bonus, I drink bonus. Now, I take advantage of every bonus opportunity.. It's free money after all. Make sure odds are not terrible, rollover conditions are not ridicilious (x30 and min. odd req 2,00? Thanks, Bye!) and bookie software is good. Even if you offer me %200 bonus, I wouldn't play at a bookie which uses Everymatrix software.

No. It is NOT FREE MONEY.
There are almost always conditions attached.

Free is when it's yours to do what you like with it.
And that's what you should be trying to turn your bonus bets into.

If you win them then generally you have even more turnover to achieve so it's still not free money.
What you should be trying to do is LOSE your bonus bets.

Lay them or back the other side at an exchange thus turning them into FREE money at the exchange.
And for that you're best to back outsiders so they're less likely to win.

And that's why a minimum odds requirement of 2.00 isn't a problem. You should be choosing bets at much longer odds than evens.

I don't get too many opportunities to play bonuses as most places that offer them don't let me play or are just too risky to trust.

You need to ensure that you understand all the rules before committing to them. And if possible get them to confirm in writing the conditions about timeframe, turnover and limiting.

I recently took a 25% bonus offer with 3x turnover on a $25k deposit but ensured that I had in writing beforehand that there were no time limits, turnover included the free bets but winnings from free bets didn't increase the initial turnover requirement and that they wouldn't reduce my betting limits for as long as I took to use the free bets. Unfortunately deals like that don't present themselves too often.

[rangerz2478]

As someone who considers all the above, good read.

[relaaxx]

thanks-that was a great read.

[rangerz2478]

No. It is NOT FREE MONEY.
There are almost always conditions attached.

Free is when it's yours to do what you like with it.
And that's what you should be trying to turn your bonus bets into.

If you win them then generally you have even more turnover to achieve so it's still not free money.
What you should be trying to do is LOSE your bonus bets.

Lay them or back the other side at an exchange thus turning them into FREE money at the exchange.
And for that you're best to back outsiders so they're less likely to win.

And that's why a minimum odds requirement of 2.00 isn't a problem. You should be choosing bets at much longer odds than evens.

I don't get too many opportunities to play bonuses as most places that offer them don't let me play or are just too risky to trust.

You need to ensure that you understand all the rules before committing to them. And if possible get them to confirm in writing the conditions about timeframe, turnover and limiting.

I recently took a 25% bonus offer with 3x turnover on a $25k deposit but ensured that I had in writing beforehand that there were no time limits, turnover included the free bets but winnings from free bets didn't increase the initial turnover requirement and that they wouldn't reduce my betting limits for as long as I took to use the free bets. Unfortunately deals like that don't present themselves too often.

25% on 25K? Surely this has to be a typo. Right? Never heard of a book giving a bonus THAT big.

[Hareeba!]

25% on 25K? Surely this has to be a typo. Right? Never heard of a book giving a bonus THAT big.

No typo. That was indeed the deal.

[5mike5]

#1 and #2

[andywend]

Disagree with numbers 1 & 2 strongly. It's not worth the hassle of dealing with the lower rated books and I have read so many horror bonus stories

[allin1]

Disagree with numbers 1 & 2 strongly. It's not worth the hassle of dealing with the lower rated books and I have read so many horror bonus stories

yeah, I also believe most of the time it's not worth the hassle.

[5mike5]

#1 and #2

Yeah I meant I NEVER take bonuses and def would only play at A+ shops

[Hareeba!]

Yeah I meant I NEVER take bonuses and def would only play at A+ shops

I agree that in general bonuses aren't worth it.

However you'd be foolish to just dismiss them all out of hand.

I don't get too many opportunities to take them any more but every now and then something worthwhile comes along. Such as the one I posted about in this thread a day or so ago. Why would you not take one like that?

[winterice]

Good advice ! Lets see if i can apply it.

[easyliving]

great information once again, Sawyer always delivers. Thank you for sharing.

[Miz]

Nice post, thanks. Made me smile a few times. Being willing to reconsider ideas you once dismissed is a real strength. I have only learned to do this in the last 4-5 years in all aspects of life. Cheers Sawyer.