[kpoutlaw]

I'm fairly new to soccer and don't have much confidence betting it. Anyway, I subscribed to Accuscore's new Soccer Advisor for the English Premier, Bundlesliga, Seria A, and La Liga for an extra $10 dollars a month. I'm going to test Accuscore's estimated win percentages against lines at Pinnacle using a half Kelly betting system based on a bankroll of $2000. I'm not betting real money here but just checking to see how reliable Accuscore can be in soccer. I plan to run this test for awhile before actually betting any real money.

Any tips or thoughts on how to be profitable in soccer would be appreciated.

Germany Bundesliga

Games odds Accuscore's % Stake

Hannover 96 Moneyline +123 57.10% $222
Hannover 96 Under 2.5 -121 57.70% $65
Freiburg +0.5 +169 46.90% $154
Hamburger SV Over 2.5 -126 67.20% $258
Nurnberg Moneyline +113 53.70% $127
Borussia Under 2.5 +105 59.60% $211

English Premier

Aston Villa Moneyline -106 68.70% $355
Aston Villa Over 2.5 -119 70.30% $349
Fulham +0.5 -107 67.50% $327
Manchester United ML -240 79.90% $316
Wigan Athletic Moneyline +130 56.20% $225
New Castle +0.5 -124 72.00% $372

I noticed a big difference in Accuscore's estimated win percentages and the actual lines for soccer, which is unusual because in Accuscore's NBA and NHL picks, there is never that great of a disparity.

I'm running a similar test for Accuscore' NBA picks in the month of March over at Covers and right now, Accuscore is hot, going 70-44-0 61.40% for a profit of $1619.25 full Kelly betting based on a bankroll of $1000. (The numbers might be off a little 'cause I'm doing everything manually but it's pretty accurate). You can check out the thread here:

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=100991852&page=4

[Jacobyy]

Thanks for doing this.

[thekid667]

Thanks man that's very insightful.

[Ruff]

could you please explain the system based on this wager? is the 372 to risk or win? and is the % the probability of succes of the play?
New Castle +0.5 -124 72.00% $372

[kpoutlaw]

could you please explain the system based on this wager? is the 372 to risk or win? and is the % the probability of succes of the play?
New Castle +0.5 -124 72.00% $372

372 is the amount risked at whatever odds are posted.

% is the probability that Accuscores gives the team of either winning or covering a handicap. I might be off on the handicap aspect, so correct me if I'm wrong. For example, Accuscore gave Newcastle a 41.2% of winning straight up when the current line (I don't which book) was listed at 29.0% and a 30.8% chance of the game ending in a draw when the line was listed at 29.7%. So I figured 41.2% + 30.8% - 72%. Doesn't this correspond to the +0.5 or would it correspond to the +0.25? Still confused with these asian handicaps for soccer, so you're going to have to give me some insight as to whether I'm doing this right for the handicaps.

[Ruff]

I dont think you would add the 41% to the draw at 30%... They are separate plays, hence different %.
Thats my 2 cents ..... but you pose a great question as how you would use the numbers for the handicap lines.

[Ruff]

There is another post where someone is playing everton ML +115 + draw at +220
im not sure how he is playing that. I would play 2 units on ML and 1 unit on draw. looks like auto winner IF Everton doesn't lose.

[kpoutlaw]

I dont think you would add the 41% to the draw at 30%... They are separate plays, hence different %.
Thats my 2 cents ..... but you pose a great question as how you would use the numbers for the handicap lines.

Okay..I guess I'll take out the handicaps until I figure out exactly how to compute the edge for handicaps. I'm mostly interested in seeing how well Accuscore does for moneyline favorites, but something seems really off with their percentages for soccer. I mean, where do they get a 70% chance of the Aston game going over when all the books had it at like 56%/44%? (0-1) right now as we speak) and making Newcastle a 40% favorite to win when most books had them at 20% something, and sure enough, they're getting bombed right now 3-0. lol

Well, we shall see...

[kpoutlaw]

Here the plays for Italy Seria A

AC Milan +101 57.70% $149
AC Milan Over 2.5 -106 55% $73

[kpoutlaw]

Well, I found this service that converts soccer 1x2 into asian handicaps

http://annabet.com/en/poissoned/asianhc.php

but they charge you something like 9.9 Euros a month just to use this one calculator...15 credits or something...I tried it in a trial version and the lines they spit out seemed fairly close to the ones at actual books, so I might actually subscribe if really I start getting serious about soccer...

EDIT: I decided to pay for it and it is spot on

For example, Pinnacle has the lines for AC Milan 2.0 Draw 3.32 Palermo 4.5 and their odds for Palermo +0.5 is at 1.926

I inputed the same line into the calculator and got a 1.96 for the +0.5

I did the same for another random game at Bet365, and the +0.5 was 2.6 while the calculator was 2.59, only a 0.01 decimal off....it does this for all the different handicaps like 0.25, 0.75

GREAT TOOL!

[kpoutlaw]

I dont think you would add the 41% to the draw at 30%... They are separate plays, hence different %.
Thats my 2 cents ..... but you pose a great question as how you would use the numbers for the handicap lines.

For the Newcastle game you were mentioning earlier, I changed the percentages into decimal odds and inputted them into that calculator I just subscribed to. It gave me the exact same percentage 72% at fair odds of 1.39 for Newcastle +0.5...so I guess it was a lot more simple that we had both imagined. lol..I guess that's the easy part. The hard part is determining whether the percentages are close to what the true odds should be.