[yisman]

14 world cup matches.

I used the most common total offered (no asian handicap with the split lines) with the most even lines (closer to -110/-110, in other words):

unders:

sa/mx: push at 2
uru/fr: win
sk/gr: push at 2
ar/ng: win
eng/usa: win
alg/slv: win
srb:gh: win
gr/aus: loss
nth/dn: win
jpn/cmr: win
itl/ prg: push at 2
nz/slvk: push at 2
ic/prt: win
brz/nk: push at 3
chile/hnd: win
spn/sws: win

So it's 10 wins, 1 loss, and five pushes so far.

[ukbsktbll]

what do you think of the next 3 games. I have been handicapping it and putting the u2 to u 2.5 and winning those. I really like the uruguay game to stay under

[brumbies]

Thanks for compiling!

[EmpireMaker]

I think those vuvu horn make it hard to communicate on the field, and that the unders will continue.

[Regul8er]

vuvu

[yisman]

two more winners today.

[VLR100]

Anyone else had success betting on the time of the first goal? Out of the 16 games played so far, only 4 have had goals before the 30th minute. Probably due to the cagey cautious manner in which these matches have been played. Tonight I'm going with first goal after the 29th minute at +110 (no goals in match is a loss). Interesting to see if this trend continues.

[coloradobuff]

Just curious if anyone been riding the ridiculous trend that has been UNDER 2.5 goals coming in on World Cup Games.

I noticed after couple days, unders were 4-1, so started playing unders exclusively and am up almost $800 and I am only a $100 player..

My question is has anyone else been playing unders and if you think that the trend of Unders will continue? Epecially with the new soccer ball Jabulani that players are complaining about and the African Trumpets (Vuvuzeles) also causing playes to complain about not being able to communicate w/each other?

Teams are starting to play their 2nd games, should we still expect UNDERS? I think so...

[Thomas_Garber]

nO IT WONT. after first round the odds will be inflated, public will be looking to bet the under after witnessing all the unders. but games will open up more after 1st rounds....teams play defensive slow games in the first round because they dont want to lose....especially the underdog teams.

[sweethook]

not all were 2.5 , lot 2 and splits. i think the over will go about 55% rest the way

[stc9357]

Can't wat till after the first round myself, unders kill first matches always I'll kill the public in the second games besides the under for the Uraguay and SA match!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I think it will be more 50/50 now. The ball will still be the same ball and those stupid blow horns will still be around (if those are legit excuses). Teams that live and die by 1-0 or 0-0 draws will still be trying to keep games close and Unders will still be around but not as much. Be careful playing the Under in the next 2 weeks of group stages matches. Your $800 could disappear fairly quickly as teams start to open up and the groups start to shape up as they should be. None the less, GL.

[rockman123]

What do you think about the unders so far in this WC?
Good shoots have been made on goal but they just didn't landed in the net. Is this "luck" about to change.
Cause i'm seriously thinking to ride all the unders for the rest of the WC...
What do you guys think?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

What do you think about the unders so far in this WC?
Good shoots have been made on goal but they just didn't landed in the net. Is this "luck" about to change.
Cause i'm seriously thinking to ride all the unders for the rest of the WC...
What do you guys think?

There isn't any solid reason why you shouldn't keep riding the unders after all 32 teams have played. My advice would to be careful as teams could start to open up more offensively.

[rockman123]

thats what i was thinking too. but so far only 1 game went over... all the underdog teams play heavy defence as they dont want to lose big against heavy favorites like brazil yesterday was a good example.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

thats what i was thinking too. but so far only 1 game went over... all the underdog teams play heavy defence as they dont want to lose big against heavy favorites like brazil yesterday was a good example.

That Brazil game is a very good example and observation. Another prime example would be the game between Uruguay/France. If Uruguay wanted to have a chance to finish top spot in Group A or even get through to the 2nd round they were better off to tie that game with France then to go for the win and end up losing. I'd say the same with Portugal/Ivory Coast. Ended 0-0 draw as both teams knew it was better to get the single point as if would be more crucial later on in that group of death.

[brumbies]

Surely the overs will start hitting on a consistent basis now? Law of averages...

[SilkBC]

Surely the overs will start hitting on a consistent basis now? Law of averages...

Well then we are in for some *very* high-scoring games. I checked back on the previous three World Cups (back to 1998 France), which all had the current 32-team format. At this point in each of them (after the first round of 16 games), here is what the average goals per game were:

1998: 2.31
2002: 2.69
2006: 2.44
2010: 1.56

As you can see, the 1.56 of this year's WC is seriously behind previous Worlds Cups at this same stage. If things are to get to where they typically have been in previous years, the games for the rest of the Group Stage will have to average about 3.4 goals per game, so we are talking about some *very* open games.

Keep in mind that with very few exceptions, the goals average historically falls off sharply in the knockout stages, compared to the Group Stage, so it isn't going to get much better then either....

I suspect we are going to continue to see this trend towards low-scoring games, though there will be a few teams who will wake up and realize they actually need to play for the win as opposed to playing "not to lose"

-SilkBC