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My 'World Cup 2010' Thread
OVERALL:
Its always hard to find good value in the outright markets since its always the same teams that are there or thereabouts. There are probably only 4 teams that are capable of winning the world cup and the betting reflects that, Spain and Brazil will probably be close and teams like Argentina, Holland and England will not be far behind. Its hard to fancy any of the African contingent, and the home team advantage for South Africa is negated by the fact they are absolute trash. If this had been held in one of the "better" African nations then it may have been different, but its very hard to look past the top European teams along with Brazil and Argentina. The closest thing to a decent play on outrights for me is HOLLAND, they have an easy group and also the prospect of an easy 2nd round game against Paraguay or Slovakia, and once they reach the Quarter Finals anything can happen. Worst case scenario is it will be possible to hedge out if one or two of the other seeds have been eliminated by that point.
THE PLAY - HOLLAND +1100
GOLDEN BOOT:
This is a VERY tough bet to call every single year for so many reasons and this is no different. Normally the way I approach this is look at the best teams who only have one out and out striker on the field, this leads me to Luis Fabiano but his price in the market shows this and isnt really value. The Spanish pair of Villa and Torres should score a few behind them but I have no call as to who scores the most, same situation with Holland in a way because I dont know how they will line up. England, Italy and any of the other contenders dont really score enough to make me take note. I'm gonna plump for an Argie and hope the lineup is as I predict it will b, taking Gonzalo Higuian, I know they have Messi but I fear he will just get marked out of the game and it will be down to someone else to score the goals. I also see the Argies making the semis and coupled with an easy group they should be good for a few goals - no reason why Higuain cant score plenty coming off the back of an excellent season with Real Madrid.
THE PLAY - GONZALO HIGUAIN +2000
GROUP A:
This is a hard group to call since the top seeded team are France, who just arent what they used to be but have a massive advantage of very poor opposition. I expect South Africa to be comfortably eliminated here with Uruguay and Mexico fighting it out for 2nd spot behind France, I give the advantage in that battle to Uruguay just because I believe the only game South Africa have a chance of even getting a draw in is the opener, just because of the occasion, against Mexico. I can see the final group game coming around with Mexico needing to beat Uruguay to qualify, but a draw being good enough and that is a massive advantage,
THE PLAY - URUGUAY TO QUALIFY +110
GROUP B:
This group should be a laugher for Argentina to win to be honest, its hard to see any of the other 3 teams upsetting them and thats why there is no value in their price whatsoever. Like the previous group its a toss up for 2nd place, this time between Greece and Nigeria, I think South Korea will finish in 4th place. Neither Greece or Nigeria are all that good to be honest, but Nigeria will have the advantage of at least being more familiar with African conditions and temperatures. It really is hard to call this and its 50/50 for me who finishes 2nd, so obviously the smart play is on the team comfortable with the conditions, namely Nigeria, hopefully they get a draw in the opener against Argentina and go from there.
THE PLAY - GREECE TO QUALIFY +150
GROUP C:
This is the group where I am going totally against public expectation and the bookies themselves. I'm fancying Slovenia to finish 2nd behind England with the USA and Algeria being eliminated. The fixtures for this are set up for Slovenia, the Yanks will likely lose to England in the opening game and Slovenia should take care of Algeria - the pressure would then be on the USA to beat Slovenai in matchday 2 otherwise they'd be eliminated, I dont think even a draw wouldnt be good enough if England had already qualified by the time the last round of matches came around - Slovenia could easily get a point against Englands backup players.
THE PLAY - ENGLAND/SLOVENIA (SF) +350
GROUP D:
The hardest group of them all to call this one, any of the 4 teams can realistically qualify and even the group winners are debatable. Germany are an old team and arent as good as they have been but they have a habit of turning up for major events. Serbia are a dangerous team and could easily win the group ahead of Germany, with Ghana and Australia fighting just behind them. It really can go any way this group but I fancy Serbia to beat Ghana in matchday 1 and go from there, Australia have a tough first game and its hard to see them qualifying, although they may finish 3rd. Ghana have an advantage of being African, but I dont fancy them to upset Germany or Serbia.
THE PLAY - SERBIA TO WIN GROUP +330
GROUP E:
Fairly easy to call this group with Holland as the winners, its hard to see any of the other teams being good enough defensively to keep pace with Holland, who often start well in major tournaments. After that I really am not sure whats going to happen at all, apart from Japan probably coming last. Cameroon and Denmark will both beat Japan and lose to Holland I reckons, meaning the matchup between them is absolutely key to what happens - I fancy Cameroon to get the result they need in that since the pressure will be on Denmark, who by that point will have lost to Holland. I'm always happy to go with the teams who have points on the board in that situation.
THE PLAY: CAMEROON TO QUALIFY +110
GROUP F:
This might well be the lowest scoring and least entertaining group i've seen in the World cup in a while, partly down to the fact that the top seeds and probable group winners are Italy, a known defensive team. I dont really know what to expect of Paraguay or Slovakia since i'm not all that familiar with either of them, but I do know that New Zealand will likely lose every game and not score a goal. Since I dont know much about the 'middle' teams its hard to find any play that I really like, but the total goals prop looks decent to me.
THE PLAY: TOTAL GROUP GOALS u13 +220
GROUP G:
A week or so ago i'd basically penned this group in as the easiest to call, due to my belief that Portugal are an over-rated one man team and the days of those succeeding at the big level are gone. Didier Drogba will play some part I would have thought, but just the fact he is a doubt puts Ivory Coast in a tough position and its widely known that they are under intense pressure from back home to do well, since its probably their best squad in ages. Brazil will hit the ground and win the group easily, and I will hold to my original theory of the Ivory Coast finishing 2nd and just hope that Drogba can play some part - Portugal will finish 3rd I think and North Korea will be bottom without registering a point on the board.
THE PLAY: BRAZIL/IVORY COAST (SF) +275
GROUP H:
So to the group involving the current favourites, Spain, and lets face it they couldnt have gotten an easier set of opponents if they'd actually picked the draw themselves. I expect them to come through this group without really being troubled at all, Honduras are a poor team and I dont rate Chile or Switzerland - I dont know loads about the latter 2 but their respective squads dont appeal to me at all. Finding value is hard when I know who the group winners will be, but have no real lean as to what will occur behind them. Since I think its a pick 'em between Switzerland and Chile to qualify, I will play the outsider of the two as per usual.
THE PLAY: SWITZERLAND TO QUALIFY +162
I will be back later today with some picks from the opening round of group matches, but wont be posting them everyday - more than likely post picks for each sets of group games as they come round as I see whats happening etc. These are all just my opinions and picks and nothing more, but please feel free to flame and abuse me if you see fit to do so.....!
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Originally Posted by cro
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