[noober]

I just decided to do an analysis on the last round of the Bulgarian league as I see some very good plays. First, I must say that most of the teams have nothing to play for, as the champion has already been determined and therefore there is a lot of potential for upsets. However, there is still a fight between Levski and Lokomotiv Sofia for the last place which gives the right to play in League Europa next season. Also, Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Mezdra are endangered of relegation so they will give it all.
Interestingly, one of the games opposes Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia. Lokomotiv Plovdiv just needs one point to stay in the premier league so a draw is acceptable for them. However, Lokomotiv Sofia is trailing two points behind Levski and only a win will give them a chance to secure a place in Europa League. This seems nearly impossible as Levski is playing Sliven, who has already secured a spot in the premier league next season and will most likely lose easily. This match is as much of a lock as you can get.

Levski Sofia (home) over Sliven at 1.05
Probability of winning: ~ 98%

Even though there is a lot of chalk, I still see value in that play. There is a high chance of this match being fixed, as Levski is a very powerful club and haven’t finished lower than top three in the last 20 years (if not more). Therefore, the local bookmaker doesn’t accept bets on Levski to win that match anymore.
The next exiting game is between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Sofia. I think Lokomotiv Plovdiv is going to get the point needed for “salvation” but there is no value in that pick. There is a huge value play for Lokomotiv Sofia to win. They have done horrible in the last 4 matches and basically missed the golden opportunity to play in League Europa. But they are going to fight very hard for the win as the fans (and their president) are furious.

Lokomotiv Sofia (away) over Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 11
Probability of winning: ~ 20%

The last interesting game with value play is between Chernomoretz and CSKA (Sofia). None of the team has anything to play for so it should be a good game, given there is no pressure. CSKA is the much better team (both historically and currently) and I was very surprised to find out that CSKA is an outsider. They just got a new coach and all the players will try to impress him so there will be no messing around. Moreover, the fans are used to nothing but wins and will be highly disappointed at draw, let alone loss. So I see a huge value play in backing CSKA to win, but if you are a little conservative you can play the double sign (to win or to draw) which is still a big value play in my opinion.

CSKA over Chernomorets at 4.5
Probability of winning: ~ 33%
CSKA to win/or tie Chernomorets at 2.1
Probability of winning: ~ 65%

Hope that was helpful. Good luck if you tail my picks.

[Tommy_de1st]

GL with those plays
I know Levski are gonna win but im not touching games whers the odds are like 1.05 ( even in a parlay)

[Slainte]

I like Beroe around 2.50

[noober]

Not sure about Beroe. They have nothing to play for, except for a good ending to their best season in many years. Anything could happen in this match.

[Gandev]

I played Chernomorets.9 players in the group for CSKA who have never played for the first team.The stadium will be full with chernomorets fans - tickets are free!

[Slainte]

Beroe plays at home and will show the cup in his own stadium today. They have nothing to play for except pride, but on the other side Slavia don't play for absolutely nothing.
Heavy rain here, maybe a lowscoring game.

[noober]

Well, except for Levski all other games lost. Still think there was value in the plays.