[Kire5Bets]

Hi team!

New to the forum but was hoping to make this a public journal of sorts for my sport's betting application. I've developed a script which scans several books and identifys value bets and automatically places wagers when opportunities are found with no human intervention whatsoever.

It runs 24x7, scanning the markets 1,440 times per day (once a minute) and is currently focused on football but will likely expand in the future.

Though here has been some thought to coding in Kelly Criterion, I'm currently simply flat betting. From a money management perspective, I keep the bet size very small and focus on number of occurrences so as to give the probabilities the proper substance to play themselves out long-term.

I believe I've found a sweet spot in the parameters so as to keep variance decently in check, whilst still finding sufficient opportunities daily/weekly/monthly (those are often inversely correlated).

Here is how the last few days are shaping up:

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
12/20	27	-2.57
12/21	71	+55.55
12/22	59	+3.14
12/23	5	-1.55
12/24	4	-4.00
12/25	9	-7.20
12/26	14	-3.61
Totals:	189	+39.76

Had a monster day on the 12/21 before the holiday slowdown with the last several days being small red days. Looking forward to the next few weeks when things return to normal with more games on (especially the weekends).

I'll keep this thread updated as eventually I hope to drum up interest and take on a few (non-US) clients. If anyone has any questions, please fire away

Good luck to everyone in their endeavors!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

I was very happy to see an uptick in the number of bets and therefor overall turnover on 12/28. It resulted in yet another small daily loss but that's just how it goes.

I'll publish some fancy graphs at some point but we're currently at a profit of 14% of our total turnover. Since our edge varies on average between 2-5%, there is an element of luck in our current results. The amount that our actual results float above our theoretical results is good luck. The amount that it floats below is bad luck. It's important to remember that there is always mean reversion. Don't get too elated in the good times, don't get too bummed in the bad. This is yet another advantage to our automated approach... the removal of emotions during the swings of variance (that is to say: good and bad fortune).

Here are our updated results, omitting today since we still have a few outstanding bets on:

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
12/20	27	-2.57
12/21	71	+55.55
12/22	59	+3.14
12/23	5	-1.55
12/24	4	-4.00
12/25	9	-7.20
12/26	14	-3.61
12/27	5	-5.00
12/28	33	-3.03
Totals:	227	+31.73

Feel free to fire away if there are any questions and I'll be back soon with another update.

Good luck everyone!

[smitch124]

I will be watching, good luck.

[SoccerWatch]

Hey Kire I am a computer science student and I am very interested in the idea you have implemented. What language did you write your scripts in? When determining "value" which factor held the most weight?

[Kire5Bets]

I will be watching, good luck.

Many thanks Smitch, best of luck in your endeavours also!

[Kire5Bets]

Hey Kire I am a computer science student and I am very interested in the idea you have implemented. What language did you write your scripts in? When determining "value" which factor held the most weight?

Hi mate,

Good questions! Everything is written in php and all data gets dumped into a sql back-end. I have some front end tools at my disposal but that's the crux of it.

As far as value: I subscribe to efficient market theory and, as such, aren't a believer in handicapping. I know there are supposed outliers out there but I'm still skeptical. Everything there is to know about the probability of an event happening is priced into the odds on display. The chances of 1 person knowing more than the cumulative market participants is highly, highly unlikely... or knowing more than dedicated teams that do this stuff for a living and with tons of money and resources at their disposal.

Therefor, we look for opportunities where there are pricing discrepancies between books. We are then able to perform calculations on the fly to determine A) What the price should be and B) If there is a large enough deviation in price to overcome the over-round and therefor create a positive expectation.

When all the boxes are checked, our proprietary platform then places the bet automatically and logs it for record keeping.

It's all numbers behind the scenes. I can't even pronounce many of the team names we bet on. I personally have no interest in the sport itself, it's all market theory and probabilities.

I hope that helps, good luck!

[SoccerWatch]

Great to see someone is putting programming to good use. I appreciate the answers and I am excited to follow your progress.

[Kire5Bets]

Great to see someone is putting programming to good use. I appreciate the answers and I am excited to follow your progress.

Absolutely! Speed of execution and 24 hour monitoring are the primary advantages. I often wake up to find a dozen bets placed that occurred overnight (in my time zone) so it's nice to not be glued to the screens looking for opportunities. There is nothing wrong with living and breathing this stuff if that suits you. As for myself, I just want to make money and have more time freedom.

Here is an excellent example of how our automated platform caught an opportunity that would have been difficult to spot manually:

Current Date:	12/20/2019
Current Time:	2:21:10 PM
Starts On:	12/20/2019
Sport:	Football
Match:	Haras El Hedoud vs El Mokawloon
Bet:	AwayOdds
Book:	SIN
Best Odds:	11
Variance:	1.11
Status:	Bet Placed Successfully
Result:	W
Current Score:	0:0

This opportunity popped up very late in the game. The score was tied at nil-nil and we spotted one book pricing the draw at 11. This was a low probability play but our algorithm calculated that this was a large enough variance to justify a bet. Here’s what happened:


This would have been very, very difficult to detect and take advantage of manually. These opportunities often exist for mere seconds and can happen anytime across hundreds of games pre-game or live as in this example.

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

Hope everyone had a fun and safe new year! Here are our totals for Dec and today:

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
12/20	27	-2.57
12/21	71	+55.55
12/22	59	+3.14
12/23	5	-1.55
12/24	4	-4.00
12/25	9	-7.20
12/26	14	-3.61
12/27	5	-5.00
12/28	33	-3.03
12/29	15	-0.45
12/30	8	-8.00
12/31	3	+1.10
Totals:	253	+24.38

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
1/1	12	+5.38
Totals:	12	+5.38

Month	Num Bets	P/L Units
Dec 2019	253	+24.38
Jan 2020	12	+5.38
Overall:	265	+29.76

I'll update again soon with some nifty info regarding average odds, average variance, actual results vs theoretical results, etc for my fello data geeks

Best of luck everyone, be safe out there!

[Kire5Bets]

Hey everyone, Happy Weekend!

I've been data crunching this morning and, as promised, here are some figures to mull over:






If anyone has any questions, fire away! Otherwise, I'll be back soon with more updates.

Good luck everyone!

[Kire5Bets]

(Ref: https://kire5.com/blog/a-lesson-in-variance/)


Yesterday’s (1/4/2020) results compelled me to write this bit regarding variance and how it factors into the emotional realm of sports betting… and life in general.

For context, here is a waterfall graph of yesterday’s results:


The net result was that we ended up the day -0.34 units down. But the obvious eye-grab in the chart is that loooonnnngggg string of losing bets. 20 In a row to be exact. So, what happened? Did something go wrong? Should we analyze and back-fit some sort of weird filter in an attempt to cull those (and just those) matches out somehow? Perhaps there’s a pattern? Maybe all of those teams had names with 3 symbols and the winners only 2… perhaps they were playing away after losing 2 in a row at home on odd numbered dates…

No friends, each and every one of those bets were value plays and ones that we would take each and every time. This is simply an example of negative variance, i.e. a bad run. It happens and it happens in both directions. There will be swings that look like this (or worse), like you are just randomly betting with no idea what you’re doing… and there will be swings that make you look god-like, like you just can’t lose. The fact is, neither are true. The truth, as it often does, lies (lol) somewhere in the middle.

The conundrum in betting (and life) is that sometimes we don’t have an edge at all, but get lucky early on and mistake that good fortune for skill or talent. When this happens, people often end up chasing that feeling for the rest of their lives, eventually telling tales of how good they used to be, never realizing that they caught lightning in a bottle and never had a positive expectation to begin with.

The opposite also happens. Sometimes we know exactly what we’re doing but suppose you began your betting journey at around bet 13 above. Now suppose you were a handicapper and subscribed to the idea of only 1 bet per day. Would you have the stomach to continue after the first 10-15 loses in a row? Would you start questioning your approach? What if you were spending hours handicapping every match or race or whatever to find that one “lock” only to lose every single day?

This (literally) leads us to a bullet pointed list of advantages to our automated, programmatic approach:
· We don’t have to emotionally ride out these swings in variance.
· Our edge is quantified, and it is easy to discern that every bet was a good bet to take.
· Because we look for opportunities around the clock, we are able to get a large number of occurrences. This is crucial for allowing probabilities to play out.

Speaking of number of occurrences, this is absolutely paramount to establishing an edge and giving it the opportunity to demonstrate itself (I’ll save that topic for another post).

In the meantime, check out the graph for where we stand over-all (with bad runs highlighted):



Interesting once it’s put in context, huh? This graph is our current over-all P&L but could just as easily represent weight loss/gain, traditional investing, job prospecting… any number of things.

The important take away is: if you know that you have an edge, don’t get too elated during times of positive variance and don’t get too bummed during times of negative variance. There will always be mean reversion and ultimately, you’ll end up right where you are supposed to be.

Stay humble, stay grateful… and keep grinding.

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

January P/L:


And Over-All:

Month	Num Bets	P/L Units
Dec 2019	253	+24.38
Jan 2020	82	+26.20
Overall:	335	+50.58

Hope everyone had a safe and profitable weekend!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
1/1	12	+5.38
1/2	8	-2.8
1/3	27	+23.96
1/4	35	-0.34
1/5	46	-4.04
1/6	21	+13.85
Totals:	149	+36.01

Month	Num Bets	P/L Units
Dec 2019	253	+24.38
Jan 2020	149	+36.01
Overall:	402	+60.39

[Kire5Bets]

Hey everyone!

Had the largest single play win today, hitting an in-play bet at odds of 16! Here's how it looked:


This opportunity was detected about 30 minutes into the game with Yaxley down 2:0! We had no way of knowing that they would go on to rally and win the game… but our algorithm detected that the price we found of 16 was way too generous.

This implied that they only had a 6.25% chance of winning whereas we calculated that the truer probability was somewhere around 14-15%. Here’s how it ended:


15 Units Won (Risking 1 Unit as always!)

I'll update tomorrow with a recap of the entire day but I was so excited to see this particular bet that I had to single it out and share

Talk soon!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

I mentioned previously that variance works in both directions and how important it is to be emotionally level during swings in both directions. Previously, we documented a run on 20 successive losses. Here's the other side of that proverbial coin (in terms of P/L not successive wins):





That 15 to 1 in-play winner certainly was the highlight of the day and the cause for the higher than expected return.

More to come soon, thanks to everyone following this thread!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

Date	Num Bets	P/L Units
1/1	12	+5.38
1/2	8	-2.8
1/3	27	+23.96
1/4	35	-0.34
1/5	46	-4.04
1/6	21	+13.85
1/7	11	+18.65
1/8	19	+9.06
Totals:	179	+63.72

January 8, 2020 Stats:

[Kire5Bets]

Hi everyone,

I've received a few inquiries from interested prospective clients that are hesitant (or not in a position) to put up the funds necessary to establish the recommended 100pt betting bank and come on board.

Firstly, it is commendable to everyone that has expressed skepticism. PLEASE don't change that in your nature. Be critical, ask questions, look for the "catch", etc always... I have no qualms with that, this industry is full of scammers so don't just give your money/trust to anyone posting screenshots on a forum.

For those in that position, I do have an alternative option that would entail putting NO funds in the account and having none of your money at risk. I will explain the details in private to anyone interested. I'm a personable fella and not a sales person so don't be shy. There is NO pressure to join us as a client, we just like to have conversations and see if we're a fit for each other. No harm done is that's not the case

It's late here my peoples, so goodnight for now and best of luck with all endeavors!

[Kire5Bets]

Hey team!

I just added a WhatsApp Chat shortcut to the website if anyone would like to chat in real time and ask any questions or discuss details of our service.

I'll be back later with today's update, thank's everyone!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

I thought today was going to be a down day (seems like we're "due" for one)... but then a couple of decently priced winners put us back into the black for the day. We'll take it!

For dramatic effect, here's a waterfall graph of how it unfolded (the odds of each bet are on the horizontal axis across the bottom):

Hope everyone else fared well also... I'll update again soon!

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

Small down day on 1/10/2020. Didn't have many bets, which always leads to high variance (for better or worse). Here's the breakdown:



Today is looking like a great bounce back but we won't count it until the days rolls

Be back soon with today's figures and some month to date numbers.

[Kire5Bets]

*UPDATE*

I love the weekend because it generally produces a larger number of bets/occurrences which helps our probabilities play out and manifest the edge that we achieve.

Here is yesterday's chart:



And here is overall since official launch:


And, to my previous point, here is a distribution graph for betting activity by weekday:


If anyone would like to see the data sliced and diced in any other way, or if there are any questions please reach out!

[Kire5Bets]

Hey team!

Quick update before diving into my day. Last two days have seen an impressive losing run but completely within the numbers when you look at things like risk of ruin, etc based upon the average odds we achieve. Here's the roller coaster-esk waterfall chart:



This is how much a 3-4% edge can swing things in either direction. It's all part of the process

Be back with another update soon!

[Hman]

No Links in the future please

Thanks Much