Argentina needs to beat Ecuador in Ecuador (which is in altitude) and Argentina RARELY wins there. Without Messi, the World Cup ratings will be way down. Game sales will be down. FIFA will take a big hit. Argentina shouldn't need the refs to step in, but should they have to, I don't see why they wouldn't. Argentina needs to beat Ecuador, and then they'll advance to the playoffs to play New Zealand (unless other results happen, wherein Argentina can secure a World Cup bid with a win and some losses).
Would be completely insane if a nation like Argentina, the favorite to win the world cup several months back, were to not even make the tournament...