[Nastrovje]

Welcome to my thread!

First off, the trick is called dedication.

I watch a lot of games in the big leagues. I download and watch them faster or just the parts that interest me to make a judgement.

My specialities are bets on the Premier League and International games. I also bet quite a bit on the Primera División and Bundesliga. Sometimes I make exceptions and bet on games in other leagues.

The past couple seasons I always won money. This year I decided to not cash out and try a deeper run and see if my 'luck' continues. I don't need the cash much atm and this has always just been a game to me. I am not attached to my playing money and I never chase losses with money of my own.

Just to let you know, it may seem like I don't care about bankroll management or don't follow 'optimal' rules. It will stay that way, it has brought me success so far. Sometimes I bet too small, sometimes way too high. Sometimes I don't bet for a week and other times bet 10 games a weekend or even live.

Now enjoy watching me go broke or rich

If people here are dedicated too and want to share thoughts on future bets, we could set up a chat somewhere.

---

Bets may go up closely before kick-off.

The site I use is mostly Pinnacle. If i use another one, I will state that

Starting bankroll: 4000

[Nastrovje]

18.8. FC Wiener Neustadt - WSG Wattens - Win Neustadt - 2,08 - 75 to win 81

19.8. Girona - Atletico Madrid - Win Atletico - 1.473 - 211,42 to win 100

20.8. Deportivo La Coruña - Real Madrid - Real Madrid -1.5 - 1.943 - 212.09 to win 200

20.8. Freiburg - Frankfurt - Freiburg 0.0 - 1.819 - 122,10 to win 100

21.8. Levante - Villareal - Win Villareal - 2.36 - 150 to win 204

[franz555]

Great start with Neustadt.


You mentioned Bundesliga and Primera Liga being primary leagues to wager on. I totally agree, though i feel the EPL is very erratic and tough top cap week in and week out.

BOL this season

[Nastrovje]

A good start always is relieving. Thanks for helping with that. I see you're doing your homework, looking at stats in the minor leagues too!

My personal approach is more driven by current form on the pitch and not by results only, which is why I need to see the matches in detail myself. Usually I only bet when I have a strong feeling for a result, which later may result in only 0-3 picks incl. international games per week.

Now is the start of the season, odds are still 'off' quite often and more bets also keep me motivated in following as many games as possible and building a knowledge about the teams for the future.

I love the premier league for my approach. Thanks to the many good teams I see good odds come up more often, meanwhile current form can be wide apart even tough they have similar results. Can't wait to see the season start rolling with full steam.


May the luck be on our side.

[Nastrovje]

19.8.17 Liverpool - Crystal Palace - Over 3 - 1,961 - 104,06 to win 100

[EasyPicks]

Hi Nastovje,

I watch a lot of games in the big leagues. I download and watch them faster or just the parts that interest me to make a judgement.

I've been using this approach in my home country league - Portugal - and it's quite useful regarding the big teams (top 4) but for the rest is poor trash, they play well one week and total garbage the next (I've also seen similarities regarding this approach in the EPL and La Liga).

Is that a thing you also notice and adapt (it's seems so random therefore the odds being way more attractive in those games) or you just disregard those teams and only watch top 6-7 teams regularly in the EPL, top 4 in La Liga and Bundesliga?

Thx for any feedback,
Cheers

[Nastrovje]

Hi Nastovje,


I've been using this approach in my home country league - Portugal - and it's quite useful regarding the big teams (top 4) but for the rest is poor trash, they play well one week and total garbage the next (I've also seen similarities regarding this approach in the EPL and La Liga).

Is that a thing you also notice and adapt (it's seems so random therefore the odds being way more attractive in those games) or you just disregard those teams and only watch top 6-7 teams regularly in the EPL, top 4 in La Liga and Bundesliga?

Thx for any feedback,
Cheers

I would say I play the big teams more and even favourites too as they go on really good runs often. But I watch mostly all games. Maybe not all in the same week, but I catch up before interesting match ups.

I simply rarely bet on inconsistent teams. For me that's a gamble which I try to avoid. Sometimes I take a shot at a team after a great performance but I mostly look for a general trend, whether that means playing extremely well or extremely poor or in the best case when good and bad are playing the same match. I also don't bet on teams that can't play good football even tough they had a couple wins, there I mainly look how bad their defense is and if I think opponents can use the shown deficits to their advantage.

[Nastrovje]

not the greatest opening weekend. have seen worse tough.

2-3-1
Bankroll 3815,52

continuing with:

Liverpool vs Arsenal - Win Arsenal - 3.520 - 150.00 to win 378.00

[Nastrovje]

Augsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach - Win Gladbach - 2.25 - 150 to win 187.5

Bournemouth - Manchester City - City -2 - 2.27 - 100 to win 127

Werder Bremen - Bayern Munchen - Bayern -2 - 2.18 - 300 to win 354

Add
Levante UD - Deportivo La Coruna - Over 2.5 - 2.17 - 150 to win 175.50

Add
Las Palmas - Atletico Madrid - Atleti -1 - 2.28 - 200 to win 256

[Nastrovje]

Up a bit for the weekend so far. Picks were pretty strong but individual mistakes lead to the 2 losses.

Really uncomfortable about Arsenal now but I am going to let the bet stay.

Adding:

Eibar - Athletic Club Bilbao - Bilbao 0.0 - 2.24 - 150 to win 186

AC Milan - Cagliari - Milan -1.5 - 2.02 - 150 to win 153

Pescara - Foggia - Win Pescara - 1.98 - 100 to win 98 (tailing Franz :P)

[franz555]

Pescara and Bilbao

[Nastrovje]

This weekend had way more potential. Every loss (except Arsenal) was super close. Anyway, good to be back at 0.

This weekend: 4-4-1
Total: 6-7-2
Bankroll: 3981,02 - -18,98

[Nastrovje]

Uganda - Egypt - Win Egypt - 100 to win 137

[Nastrovje]

France - Netherlands - Netherlands +0.5 - 2,71 - 100 to win 171

Bulgaria - Sweden - Win Sweden - 1,917 -
100 to win 91,7

Venezuela - Colombia - Colombia -1 - 2,23 - 200 to win 246

[Nastrovje]

Rip

[Nastrovje]

Won a bit in other sports and trying to make the amount seen on the bankroll even again.

I feel like this is a super strong play. It all depends on Kyle Walker, if he doesn't perform there is no width for City and they will go down. Great odds imo.

City - Liverpool - Win Liverpool - 4.21 - 437.04 to win 1402.90

[Nastrovje]

Stoke - Man Udt - Udt -1 - 1.869 - 250 to win 217.39

Freiburg - Dortmund - Dortmund -1.5 - 150 to win 175.50
Mainz - Leverkusen - Win Leverkusen - 100 to win 143

[EasyPicks]

bad run....
no CL for you?

[Nastrovje]

bad run....
no CL for you?

I took a break. Was no fun to lose

Will continue soon again. Monitoring games as always

[Nastrovje]

Tottenham - BVB - Win BVB - 3.59 - 250 to win 647.50

Bvb plays great. I think real odds are even.

[Nastrovje]

Lazio 250

[Nastrovje]

Man Utd 200 - 168.07

[Nastrovje]

Real 100
Leipzig 100

[Nastrovje]

RBS - Marseille - Win Marseille - 250 to win 495

[Nastrovje]

PSG - FCB - München +0.5 - 200 to win 180