1. 11-25-16 07:02 AM #1
    Division
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    €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

    I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

    Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

    Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

    I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

    I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

    *This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

    *Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.
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  2. 11-25-16 09:51 AM #2
    Stackzilla
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    BOL! Looking forward to seeing you succeed.
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  3. 11-25-16 09:53 AM #3
    rgrant2214
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    Good luck sir!
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  4. 11-25-16 05:43 PM #4
    Don_Omarion
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    best of luck , bro
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  5. 11-25-16 07:00 PM #5
    Division
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    Betting Round 1:

    English Premier League
    Hull v West Brom
    Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
    Stake: €67

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
    Stake: €56

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v West Ham
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
    Stake: €77
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  6. 11-25-16 08:00 PM #6
    Enkhbat
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    How do you calculate the expected strike rate and expected value?
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  7. 11-26-16 05:08 AM #7
    Division
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    Basically I assign a percentage to the chance of each team scoring 1 goal, 2 goals, 3 goals, ect. This can then be used to price up quite a few markets in football (soccer) Once you have this the expected value is related to the odds offered by the bookmakers.

    The goal percentages are influenced by many factors from what I see when I watch that teams previous games, how they play against similar teams, home and away form, motivation, travel distance, injuries & suspensions, ect.
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  8. 11-26-16 07:34 AM #8
    Division
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    Thanks guys, will need a bit of luck with this staking plan.
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  9. 11-27-16 12:52 PM #9
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 1

    Hull 1-1 West Brom
    Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
    Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

    Current Balance: €282
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  10. 11-27-16 10:05 PM #10
    rgrant2214
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    Great job so far!
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  11. 11-28-16 06:47 AM #11
    Don_Omarion
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    good luck , and way to go man
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  12. 11-28-16 05:04 PM #12
    dreamchaser
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    Keep it up!
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  13. 12-01-16 02:37 PM #13
    Division
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    Betting Round 2:

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Southampton
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
    Stake: €82

    Spanish Primera Division
    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
    Stake: €102

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
    Stake: €98
    Last edited by Division; 12-01-16 at 02:40 PM.
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  14. 12-07-16 03:37 PM #14
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 2

    Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
    Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
    Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

    Current Balance: €294
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  15. 12-12-16 10:03 AM #15
    Division
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    Betting Round 3

    English Premier League
    Everton v Arsenal
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
    Stake: €81

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Burnley
    Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
    Stake: €108

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Man Utd
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
    Stake: €105
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  16. 12-12-16 02:09 PM #16
    calvin34242
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    i turned 35 dollars sat into 3500 sun good lucks with ur goal
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  17. 12-12-16 02:25 PM #17
    Division
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    Well done Calvin, enjoy the win.
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  18. 12-12-16 02:27 PM #18
    calvin34242
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    i see u bet alot of favs, i'm more into team totals over 2.5 goals over 3.5 goals looking for at least 3-1 or higher value
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  19. 12-13-16 08:03 AM #19
    Division
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    Which would you rather?

    Bet Team A to win at odds of 4/6 when you think they will win 68.7% of the time.
    Bet Team B to win at odds of 3/1 when you think they will win 26% of the time.

    Don't confuse big odds with big value.
    Points Awarded:

    Stackzilla gave Division 5 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  20. 12-13-16 09:24 AM #20
    calvin34242
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    i don't like to bet more to win less, also i don't like bet teams to win anymore i do but not as often, i used bet alot underdogs i would get the 1st goal alot, have late leads and lose to equalizers late, it was very painful , now i have live betting offered i bet team totals, i don't care who wins the game
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  21. 12-14-16 04:20 PM #21
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 3

    Everton 2-1 Arsenal
    West Ham 1-0 Burnley
    Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

    Current Balance: €406
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  22. 12-16-16 10:58 PM #22
    Division
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    Betting Round 4:

    English Premier League
    Tottenham v Burnley
    Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
    Stake: €99

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Hull
    Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €152

    English Premier League
    Everton v Liverpool
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
    Stake: €155
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  23. 01-14-17 08:09 AM #23
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 4

    Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
    West Ham 1-0 Hull
    Everton 0-1 Liverpool

    Current Balance: €190

    English Premier League
    Everton v Man City
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Arsenal
    Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
    Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
    Stake: €64

    Spanish La Liga
    Sevilla v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
    Stake: €68
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  24. 01-20-17 10:47 AM #24
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 5

    Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
    Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
    Everton 4-0 Man City

    Current Balance: €197

    German Bundesliga
    Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
    Stake: €62

    English Premier League
    Man City v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    West Brom v Sunderland
    Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
    Stake: €77
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  25. 01-27-17 06:50 PM #25
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 6

    Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
    Man City 2-2 Tottenham
    West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

    Current Balance: €290

    German Bundesliga
    Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
    Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
    Stake: €102

    Spanish La Liga
    Espanyol v Sevilla
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €81

    Spanish La Liga
    Betis v Barcelona
    Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
    Stake: €107
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  26. 01-31-17 08:34 AM #26
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 7

    Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
    Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
    Betis 1-1 Barcelona

    Current Balance: €138

    English Premier League
    Middlesbrough v West Brom
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
    Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
    Stake: €43

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Chelsea
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
    Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €36

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v Hull
    Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
    Stake: €52
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  27. 02-01-17 02:00 AM #27
    bettingmosquito
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    Good luck bro, you can do it.
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  28. 02-10-17 03:38 PM #28
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 8

    Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
    Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
    Man Utd 0-0 Hull

    Current Balance: €137

    English Premier League
    Stoke v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
    Stake: €53

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
    Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
    Stake: €39

    German Bundesliga
    Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
    Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
    Stake: €45
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  29. 02-13-17 08:06 PM #29
    Division
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    Results - Betting Round 9

    Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
    Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
    Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

    Current Balance: €69

    Champions League
    Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €22

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Napoli
    Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
    Stake: €25

    Champions League
    PSG v Barcelona
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
    Stake: €22
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  30. 02-14-17 08:42 PM #30
    Division
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    I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

    To quote my opening post:

    "This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

    I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

    Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.
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