[sjm5122]

I have seen maybe one game of the last 15 go over in this league. Is it always this low scoring?

[sjm5122]

Welp I jinxed the late game. 2 goals in the last 10 mins for the over. But wondering if flat betting the overs for the next couple weeks would be profitable. I would have to think it would regress back to the mean eventually.

[Vaughany]

Interesting post. And yee I noticed that too...only 2 out of last 15 games have gone over 2.5. And no that isn't normal per se, like when you compare it to recent years...

Last season 11 out of the 12 teams in the league had an average goal per game rate of at least 2.5, and 7 of those 11 were over 2.75 per game. When you look at the average goals per game total this season the figures are drastically different. This season only 5 out of 12 teams are averaging at least 2.5 goals per game; and 5 teams are averaging a lower goals per game than the lowest out of all teams last season! 4 teams are averaging less than 2 goals per game this season. Those 4 teams are AaB (1.76 goals per game), Copenhagen (1.75), Randers (1.65), and Sonderjyske (1.94). In contrast, last season AaB were joint 3rd highest goals per game averaging 2.97, Copenhagen (2.79), Randers (2.69), and Sonderjyske (2.85). So can see a very big difference. The team with highest goals per game average last season - Viborg (3.06) were relegated. Only FC Midjytlland have been consistent as they averaged 3.6 last season are and league highest this season with 3 per game.

Hard to explain why the big difference but can speculate that it's due to teams playing more conservative and defensive. For sure some teams have lost key attacking players from last season due to combination of transfers out of the league, injuries, and bad form. AaB for instance lost attacking mid Kasper Kusk (33 apps, 12 goals) to Twente; striker Rasmus Jonsson (19 apps, 6 goals) hasn't been available this season; Nick Helenius who they brought back from Aston Villa has only scored 3 in 17 apps; and Lukas Spalvis who scored 8 in 17 last season has only made 3 appearances.

[sjm5122]

Insightful post, thanks vaughany! I don't follow this league that closely but remembered it was much higher scoring last year. Everything you said makes sense. I will probably test this out over the next couple weeks but only for a half unit per game.

[Vaughany]

yeah I don't follow that league at all anymore really which is why I can't really offer much insight in to the reasoning behind the somewhat drastic change. Only reason I looked in to it was because I used to bet on overs quite a lot in games involving AaB as they used to be an overs machine (last season they had a run of like 16 out of 17 games or something like that that had 3 goals or more)! So was quite surprised by how different they are this season

Whether your test is +EV I guess all depends on whether the bookmakers have adapted their lines in accordance with the change from last season. I haven't looked at odds for overs in games in that league in a while so don't know whether the standard over line is Over 2 now or over 2.25 at Evens rather than Over 2.5 or Over 2.75 at Evens like it was for most last season when so many teams were averaging near 3 goals per game