[AussiePunter123]

Right, some people here have been laying the boot into me, saying that I have leans, official plays and all different sorts of things and that I don't post enough analysis etc.

I have decided to start anew. Everything I post here is an official play with statistics and information to back up my selections.

Tail at your own risk. But hopefully we can all make some money and get laid.

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#1 Soccer » Singapore » S.League » Geylang - Tanjong Pagar

Home team has a solid record.

L6 matches: 3 wins, 0 losses, 3 draws
L6 @ home: 4 wins, 0 losses, 2 draws
H2H v Tanjong (recent history): 3 wins, 0 losses, 1 draw

Away team:

L6 matches: 1 win, 3 losses, 2 draws
L5 away: 2 wins, 3 losses.

Odds are shortening for the home team, so they are considered favourites in this fixture.

Home team @ 2.25 (sporting bet)

* DNB is 1.69 (sporting bet) if you want to lower the risk.

BOL and sex to all.

[tainted]

Thanks and best of luck!

[MustWinPlease]

in on this

[AussiePunter123]

#1 Soccer » Singapore » S.League » Geylang - Tanjong Pagar

RESULT: 1-1

Record (1x2)

0 wins
1 loss
P/L: -1 unit

Record DNB

0 win
0 loss
1 push

P/L: 0 units

[AussiePunter123]

#1 EXOTICS

Honduras » Liga Nacional » Marathon - Olimpia

Both teams to score: NO @ 2.00 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

This bet has cashed last 11 out of 12 times going back to 2012.

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

#1 EXOTICS

Honduras » Liga Nacional » Marathon - Olimpia

Both teams to score: NO @ 2.00 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

This bet has cashed last 11 out of 12 times going back to 2012.

BOL and sex to all.

Easy money with the bookies making a mistake pricing this line IMO. Game ended 0-0.

Exotics Record

Wins: 1
Loss: 0
Push: 0

+ 1.00 units

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics # 2: Clermont Foot under 2.5 goals total @ 1.65 (sporting bet)

Statistics suggest that this pick is a solid selection. Last 12 Clermont Foot home games have gone under this line.

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics #3 PFK Simurq vs Azal Baku


Both teams to score: NO @ 1.79

Once again, statistics form the foundation of this selection.

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics # 2: Clermont Foot under 2.5 goals total @ 1.65 (sporting bet)

Statistics suggest that this pick is a solid selection. Last 12 Clermont Foot home games have gone under this line.

BOL and sex to all.

Game finished 0-1

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics #3 PFK Simurq vs Azal Baku


Both teams to score: NO @ 1.79

Once again, statistics form the foundation of this selection.

BOL and sex to all.

0-0 draw.

Exotics Record

3 wins
0 losses
0 pushes

+ 2.44 units

[blstrick5]

Nice job so far. Any AFL picks for today?

[AussiePunter123]

No mate, not really. Most games look very one-sided. Earlier in the week I did back St Kilda with a handicap of +51.5 @ 1.90. So will see how that goes.

[AussiePunter123]

Nice job so far. Any AFL picks for today?

Saints are getting pumped.

Started capping AFL games this year, have been going straight out H2H when there is a bit of value but not much around at all this weekend.

One of the best AFL cappers I have seen posts his tips on an external website.

He posts under the name, 'the betting stig'. He has been going great guns for over 4 years now. Check him out, lost his bets last night but over time he is probably the best tipper in AFL i have seen.

Apparently most of the bookies in Australia have banned/limited him. Specialises in player exotics but does do straight out H2H and handicaps.

[AussiePunter123]

# 2 Soccer (1x2)

Gai Lai (Vietnam V league) @ 1.67 (in from 2.10)

Very strong record at home. Lost their last home fixture, and have always won the next home game after losing one at home. Very confident of this selection. BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

# 2 Soccer (1x2)

Gai Lai (Vietnam V league) @ 1.67 (in from 2.10)

Very strong record at home. Lost their last home fixture, and have always won the next home game after losing one at home. Very confident of this selection. BOL and sex to all.

3-2 with the winner in the last 10 mins. A lot closer than expected, but a win is a win.

Soccer Record (1x)

1 loss
1 win
0 pushes

-0.33 units

[AussiePunter123]

# 3 Soccer (1x2)

Bolivia » Liga de Futbol Prof » Oriente Petrolero - Blooming

Home team is very good value here.

The home team has a solid home record, while the away team's away record is remarkable for the number of losses.

Back Oriente Petrolero @ 2.00 (Bet 365)

DNB is @ 1.50 if you want to lessen risk.

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

# 3 Soccer (1x2)

Bolivia » Liga de Futbol Prof » Oriente Petrolero - Blooming

Home team is very good value here.

The home team has a solid home record, while the away team's away record is remarkable for the number of losses.

Back Oriente Petrolero @ 2.00 (Bet 365)

DNB is @ 1.50 if you want to lessen risk.

BOL and sex to all.

Had written this game off as a loss, but was surprised when the home team got up for the win.

Will take anything that comes my way.

Soccer Record (1x2)

2 wins
1 loss
0 push

+0.67 units

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics #4

FC Tokyo vs Omiya Ardija Under 2.5 Goals Total @ 2.00 (sporting bet)

Thought this was good value with recent fixtures between these two clubs being low scoring.

BOL and sex to all.

[cryptocap]

Urawa!

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics #4

FC Tokyo vs Omiya Ardija Under 2.5 Goals Total @ 2.00 (sporting bet)

Thought this was good value with recent fixtures between these two clubs being low scoring.


BOL and sex to all.

Finished 0-1 to the home team, with a late goal in stoppage time.

Exotics Record

4 wins
0 losses
0 pushes

+3.44 units

[AussiePunter123]

Updated Record (imported from value BTTS and Overs/Unders thread)

Exotics Record

5 wins
1 loss
0 pushes

+4.09 units

OVERALL (exotics + 1x2 record + DNB record) = +4.76 units

[AussiePunter123]

A new category coming up today.

Parlay Exotics (Singapore S Legue)

Albirex Niigata v Geylang U3.5 @ 1.46 into (last 4 H2H fixtures under 3.5)
Tampines Rovers v Warriors U3.5 @ 1.56 (last 10/12 H2H fixtures gone under 3.5)

TOTAL ODDS: 2.28

BOL and sex to all.

UPDATED Parlay Record

Parlays always nail me.

0 wins
1 loss

- 1 unit

[AussiePunter123]

1x2 Play

Tampines @ 2.00 (Singapore S League)

BOL and sex to all.

Game ended 3-3, half a thought that this game might have been fixed.

Either way, it is a loss for me.

1x2 Updated Record

2 wins
2 losses

-0.33 units

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics

Nagoya Grampus v Gamba Osaka 02.5 @ 1.74

Last 5 head 2 head matchs at Nagoya have cleared this line. 6 out of 7 matches at Nagoya this year have gone over 2.5 goals.

Odds implied chance: 57%
Estimated Probability: 86%

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

Norway » NM Cup » Raufoss - Stabaek

Home team double chance @ 2.38 (bet 365) (1x2 Soccer Tip)

Home team has not lost a game in its last 6 matchs.

Last 6 matches @ home for the home team gives a record of 1 win, 3 losses and 2 draws.

Last 6 matches @ away for the away team gives a record of 3 wins and 3 losses.

On this basis, I think this is a decent bet at good value.

BOL and sex to all.


UPDATED RESULTS

1x2 Soccer

2 wins
3 losses

-1.33 units

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics

Hiroshima

-

Shimizu O2.5 @ 1.83 (Japan)

Last 4 games between these 2 clubs have gone over this line.

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics

Hougang v Balestier Khalsa (Singapore S League)

v


BTTS No @ 2.50 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

4 out 7 of the last fixtures between these two clubs (Hougang at home) have cleared this line. Therefore, I believe this price offers good value.

Implied probability: 40%
Estimated probability: 57%
Difference: +17%


​BOL and sex to all.

RESULT: Loss

Home team scored @ home (2014) = 4/6 (67%)
Away team scored @ away (2014): 5/6 (83%)

On reflection, that was a poor bet. Very poor bet.

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics

The Strongest v Guabira Montero (Bolivia)

v

BTTS No @ 2.05 (Marathon Bet)

Rationale

The away team has only scored twice in nine away games in 2014 (22.2%). H2H (The Strongest at home) this line has cleared 3 out of 5 times (60%). These two factors combined, I think this is a decent bet.

Implied Probability (from odds): 49%

BOL and sex to all.

[AussiePunter123]

Exotics

Guangzhou Evergrande v Guangzhou R&f FC (China Super League)

v

Over 2.5 @ 1.57 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

These are lower odds than the other plays, but the home team has cleared this line in every home match so far this year. As such, I really couldn't let it pass us by.

BOL and sex to all.


RESULT: LOSS

Game ended 0-1. As another user said, the away team had limited the home team before in terms of scoring. Im putting this down as a poor bet, despite the good at home record.

[AussiePunter123]

Parlay Exotics



Tonight, I go to France with a multi-bet complete with stats and rationale.

1st Leg: Arles v Auxerre O1.5 @ 1.36 (Sporting Bet).

Cleared this line 61% at home. Last 3 games at home have all cleared.

2nd Leg: Caen v Tours U3.5 @ 1.40 (Sporting Bet)

2 out of 3 of the previous games at Caen's home ground have cleared this line. 76% record at home.

3rd Leg: Clermont Foot U3.5 @ 1.33 (Sporting Bet)

Last 3 games at home have all cleared this line. Overall record of 94% at home.

TOTAL ODDS: 2.53

BOL and sex to all.

UPDATE:

LOSS: Just not my night, Clermont put a spanner in the works. penetrate.

[AussiePunter123]

Tonight, we are in the land of Australia as well. In the AFL.



Swans v Hawks



Both teams to score 80 points or more @ 2.40

To me, this is a over-priced line. The game is at ANZ stadium and the weather is fine. I think a high scoring game is on the cards with each team's midfield pumping the ball inside 50.

H2H this line has cleared 60% of the time. Out of the 2 times these teams have played at ANZ stadium, both have scored 100 points plus.

BOL and sex to all.

RESULT: Win

Bookies got done here, games at ANZ stadium are more open affairs, and hence higher scoring. Match is still in play in the last quarter with scores at 95 to 87. Line was way over-priced.

[Marillion]

Norway » NM Cup » Raufoss - Stabaek

Home team double chance @ 2.38 (bet 365) (1x2 Soccer Tip)

Home team has not lost a game in its last 6 matchs.

Last 6 matches @ home for the home team gives a record of 1 win, 3 losses and 2 draws.

Last 6 matches @ away for the away team gives a record of 3 wins and 3 losses.

On this basis, I think this is a decent bet at good value.

BOL and sex to all.


UPDATED RESULTS

1x2 Soccer

2 wins
3 losses

-1.33 units

You did realize that home team are a bunch of amateurs playing in the regional leagues while Stabaek are playing in the top league and are lead by Bob Bradley, right?

[AussiePunter123]

No I didn't good sir. Thanks for informing me. All the best.

[edabramov]

Exotics

Guangzhou Evergrande v Guangzhou R&f FC (China Super League)

v

Over 2.5 @ 1.57 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

These are lower odds than the other plays, but the home team has cleared this line in every home match so far this year. As such, I really couldn't let it pass us by.

BOL and sex to all.

I actually liked this too, taking Guangzhou over 3 at home would guarantee you a push at least .. But this game I'm skipping because last time there Guangzhou game didnt have 3 goals at home was this exact opponent. Good luck though

[blstrick5]

Exotics

Guangzhou Evergrande v Guangzhou R&f FC (China Super League)

v

Over 2.5 @ 1.57 (Sporting Bet)

Rationale

These are lower odds than the other plays, but the home team has cleared this line in every home match so far this year. As such, I really couldn't let it pass us by.

BOL and sex to all.

I went Evergrande -1 for 1000 yen.