[Blackster]

Hi there,

I am opening this thread to post my picks daily, mostly for reason to track my record on day-to-day basis. This will be my own picks for soccer and hockey, picked after analysis, and not by stats or by "the feeling". I read all about those games on net before, with injuries, coach annuncements, squads, tactics that will be used etc... Since I played soccer for years i believe I can evaluate those infos enough to place bet.

All odds will be from pinnacle and at value I got them when placing stake.

I use Kelly strategy for determining units, with 2-3 for low, 4 for medium, 5-6 high stakes.

And consider my bets and analysis as second opinion, not as expert tip...

Cheers

[Blackster]

October 22nd

WIN: Schalke - Chelsea 0:3

I saw two games of Schalke this season - when they got trashed by Bayern, and this week agains Braunschweig (top candidate for relegation in Bundesliga) where they managed to win with late goal 3-2. They were twice behind and got back, but it was mainly because od totally poor defence of hosts. They are good attacking team, but Huntelaar and Farfan are obviously great lack for team at this moment. Today they could also be without Jansen, Hildebrand and K.P. Boateng, and in that range of team, I do not see too much chances for them against Chelsea, who already lost their bonus points agains Basel at home, and I don't see Mourinho and team is likely not to perform full 100%. Their defence might get lost once in this game, despite of Schalke's misses in this game, but their attack (Mata, Oscar, Hazard, Ramires, Etoo) is definitely too strong not to score one more than Schalke. Taking lower risk with 0,-0,5 to return half stake in case of draw, and even more - playing medium instead high stake (should be 5 units, but I already placed bet on medium 4 units)

My bet goes on: Chelsea -0,25 (odd 2,01) / 4 units
// Result 0:3 -> WIN

WIN: Marseille - Napoli 1:2

I was quite surprised with high odds on overs in this game. Despite lack of form lately, Marseille and Napoli can definitely provide some excellent attacking football. Yes, Napoli is favourite in this game, and probably bookies were setting odds for some defensive game from Italians and closing when they take a lead. But Marseille is definitely capable of scoring to Italian defence, with Ayew and Gignac, and on Velodrome. Last game they lost 0-1 in Nica, but were constantly attacking and looking for a goal. This is what I look in my bet. On other hand, I believe that Napoli himself can go over 2,5 in this game, with only Higuain lacking. They are truly fast in their attacks, and I see their fast goal in this game, maybe in first 20 minutes. Since they are both going for win, and will be oriented to score, I was surprised with high odd, and chosed to take over 2, 2,5, to cover half loss in case of two goals.

My bet goes on: Over 2,25 goals (odd 1,83) / 4 units
// Result: 1-2 -> WIN

LOST: Steaua - Basel 1:1

This is typicall Eastern European team game against non top flight team. I am quite familiar with this kind of games. Despite being total outsider in group, Steaua will fight for this game, not only because of points, but also for money earned from group games, which means good bonuses for players. Both teams are used to score goals in their leagues, and I don't expect nothing less this evening. Basel on other side is coming with full squad, and sensational three points earned in London. They are definitely capable of scoring to anyone, as proved against top class team as Chelsea, and will be there for any mistake Steaua will make during trying to break their defence for first time. I see game on 2-1 score for either side, or 2-2, since on 1-1 they will both look for a win today, and they are capable of scoring.

My bet goes on: Over 2,5 goals (odd 1,90) / 4 units
// Result: 1-1 -> LOST

WIN: Austria - Atletico 0:3

I watched Austria against Dinamo Zagreb in playoffs, and they literally - suck. But that is not the point of my bet. Atletico is in range of Barcelona and Real this year, with excellent team and they play really grat football. Coming as guest to a lower level team like Austria, they shouls easily capitalise their play on highest level through their strength needed to bear all 90 minutes in Primera on maximum. On other side, Austria is in CL by suprise, even for themselves. 0-0 in St. Petersburg was because of Witsel's red card in 1st half, and 10-man Russians couldn't break their defence. Today, I expect they will totally collapse under "machine" football by Atletico. As game will go into last 30 minutes, I wouldn't be surprised if they lose their compass totally. They do not have fitness to defend all time and their bench is far too weak to be capable to stop Turan, Villa or Costa (if he will play, doubtfull for injury). They play football in their weak league weekly and are completely without any experience against teams of Atletico sort. Two goals spread are great bet, but taking a lower risk with (-1,-1,5) to return half stake in case of red card or something goes wrong.

My bet goes on: Atletico -1,25 (odd 1,78)/ 5 units
// Result 0-3 -> WIN
-----------------------------------------------------

OVERALL RESULTS: 3W - 0D - 1L
OVERALL STAKED: 17 units
OVERALL UNIT PROFIT: + 7,26 units

[Blackster]

Quite good evening for first time here, hope that it helped someone to make decisions

[plekz]

I'm thinking of using PSG + Galatasaray (or Man City) in a pretty heavy two teamer, with Cavani and Zlatan's current form i really like PSG to get it done tomorrow against Anderlecht who's dropped points recently even in their own league.

I'm unsure to go Gala or Man City though since the success of Gala in my eyes rides alot on the current form of Didier Drogba and since i don't follow turkish league soccer i'm not to sure. He looked on fire in the last game against Juventus with the assist + a goal.

And Man City are also a bit hot & cold they have more then enough talent in the squad to get it done, but sometimes fail to put it all together.

[zizoudane10]

Well done Blackster

But your 1st bet was Chelsea -0.25, not +0.25. Typo I guess.

[Blackster]

Well done Blackster

But your 1st bet was Chelsea -0.25, not +0.25. Typo I guess.

Yep mate, 0, -0,5, it was lapsus calami It can be seen by odds... Going to edit it, thanks

[Blackster]

I'm thinking of using PSG + Galatasaray (or Man City) in a pretty heavy two teamer, with Cavani and Zlatan's current form i really like PSG to get it done tomorrow against Anderlecht who's dropped points recently even in their own league.

I'm unsure to go Gala or Man City though since the success of Gala in my eyes rides alot on the current form of Didier Drogba and since i don't follow turkish league soccer i'm not to sure. He looked on fire in the last game against Juventus with the assist + a goal.

And Man City are also a bit hot & cold they have more then enough talent in the squad to get it done, but sometimes fail to put it all together.

Well I can share my initiall thoughts on tomorrow games I picked, but nothing yet to place bet on:

Anderlecht - PSG: Still waging between PSG -1 (1,78@Pinnacle) and Over 2,5 goals (1,79@Pinnacle, rising from 1,70). I am sure PSG will win, but still have to check out PSG's defence and Anderlecht's attack to see are Belgians able to score. I am closer to Over 2,5 because I am sure Ibrakadabra and Cavani can put 3 goals without Anderlecht scoring. PSG scored to Benfica and Olympiakos 3 and 4... Waiting for squads and coaches, and even more - checking last few PSG games and opponents shots and attacks to see if they are vulnerable

Benfica - Olympiakos: The game I like a lot, and again waging between Over 2,5 (1,83@Pinnacle) and Olympiakos +0,75 (1,93) and even +0,5 (2,20). Reason for favorising Olympiakos at first glance is bunch of Iberian players in Greece squad , Saviola being for few years in Benfica, great in form Weiss and Mitroglu in terrific form, scoring 7 goals in last three games. Olympiakos is also in great form in domestic league. On other side Benfica seems to be struggling with form, having new players who still have to make a team, and domestic results do not give to much. But still have to check squads, and to see what coaches have to say

Galatasaray - Kobenhavn: I'll pass this because odds on Over 2,5 (1,60) and Galatasaray -1 (1,65) are too low for me, and Kobenhavn got 3-0 victory last weekend, and at first what I saw, their coach is seeing this a first leg of two matches for third place in group. So, there could be some heavy defence by Danish side and quite a bunch counterattacks. Galatasaray looks too unpredictable atm with being able to trash 5-0 and lose. I still see sacking of Terim making too much disturbance in teams moral, and althoug Mancini did great job against Juve, i'll stay far away from this game

Overall, I'm still in progress, there will be some thoughts during tommorow.

And I'm glad someone watching and replied to my posts, you all are welcome

[Blackster]

Just to add: definitely staying away from Real-Juve game because I can't see value in odds and these are too huge opponents for me to be able to make some decisions, and from Bayer - Shaktar game because as far as I am aware of Bayer and Bundesliga quality, Shaktar is excellent squad and able to make great performance on good day with bunch of Brasilians. CSKA - Manchester City looks fine on paper, but also one had to beware of strength of Russian teams, although CSKA has been beaten by Zenit this week. And Bayern - must see squad and Pep's thinking, but odds on 1,69 for Over 3,5 is too low for me, and Bayern to beat -2,5 (1,80) and -3 (2,25) should be considered only in case Guardiola picks Mandzukic and Pizzaro or Muller in attack. Breaking heavy defence with 6 small midfielders 4 times looks to hard for me atm. With 5 midfielders and two "towers" like Mandzukic and Pizzaro maybe...

[EasyPicks]

just an advice, don't edit posted plays

Gl tomorrow

[Blackster]

just an advice, don't edit posted plays

Gl tomorrow

Thanks for advice, I'll keep that in mind from now on. Won't edit my analysys either, results will be in new post. Thanks!

[Blackster]

October 23rd

Anderlecht - PSG

PSG in favourite in this game in advance. Team with high ambitions, near Top 10 clubs in world and with explosive attack is going as guest to, despite quite good name and brand, quite unexperienced team. PSG is able to score plenty of goals, they create many chances and with Ibahimovic and Cavani in attack (playing both, or rotated), the team is set to play for them to score. Tonight won't be anything different, and I see many chances for PSG. Even Anderlecht players do not believe in miracle today, and are aware of opponents strength. On other side, I quite like Anderlecht with unexpirienced but good prospect youth squad. Unable to surprise PSG, but able to do some mess if they get chance. PSG win is surebet for me today, and their attacking mentallity is guarantee they will move forward after taking a lead, and looking for more and more from Ibrahimovic and Cavani. I am pretty sure they can make three goals in this game, and cover both bets alone.

My bet goes on: PSG -1 (odd 1,74@Pinnacle) / 6 units (really high stake for me)
My bet goes on: Over 2,5 goals (odd 1,81@Pinnacle) / 4 units

Benfica - Olympiakos

Same group here, but a direct playoff match for 2nd place in group. Anderlecht seems to be out after two loses, PSG first with two wins, and Benfica - Olympiakos this and next round will probably decide who will go to CL or EL in spring. Because od that I look on this game as playoff match, where Benfica will look to make some advantage for Atena trip and Olympiakos to get draw or even win, but going for goals anyway. Now, despite looking at two opposite end of Europe, they are connected through players playing in each others clubs. Mainly I see Saviola and Roberto as ex Benfica players during great UEFA cup run two years ago, but few more players from Portugal and Iberia who should not be unfamiliar with Benfica's strength and home crowd. Looking at current form, Olympiacos is far away from Benfica, who is struggling in the moment with few low scoring games and draws, while Olympiacos is in great shape, scoring bunch of goals and having Mitroglu in great form, scoring 7 goals in 4 games, and scoring hat-trick against Anderlecht. Also, Olympiakos looked quite good in 1-4 PSG loss until PSG made their explosive finish, and had 12 shots on target. At this moment, Olympiacos is looking as better team, Benfica still looking for team chemistry with all newcomers, Greece trio Saviola - Weiss - Mitroglu seems capable to break much stronger teams, and Olympiakos coach Michel is having quite good experience from Primera (Getafe, Sevilla), therefore knowing what it takes mentally to prepare team for such match. Since Benfica is home team, still a slight favourite, and definitely will go for pressure to get goal as soon as earlier, I see opened game with many chances, and enough quality to convert them to goals. I see game on 1-2 on either sides, or 2-2.

My bet goes on: Over 2,25 goals (odds 1,78@Pinnacle) / 4 units

[Pan43]

You sure there isn't some mistake with the odds on PSG +1 ?

[Blackster]

You sure there isn't some mistake with the odds on PSG +1 ?

Sorry, it's AH-1 on PSG... Second time made same typo mistake in two days. PSG will win with two

[Bet10Heinekens]

Solid write-ups Blackster

any thoughts on Man City/Moscow

[Blackster]

Solid write-ups Blackster

any thoughts on Man City/Moscow

Not much, as I coudn't find value for me in this game. It's public bet, and I am avoiding those. Besides, too much confusion on pitch conditions, Khimki stadium etc... Only thing that caught my attention was Under 2,75 goals on 1,83@Pinnacle in morning, since CSKA attack is really poor lately (despite Doumbia coming back) but it dropped fast (it's 1,70 now)

[EasyPicks]

Also on PSG -1 (but it seems everybody is liking this pick....and that's scary lol)
As a Benfica fan no bet for me and also the game could go either way.

Gl

[Blackster]

Also on PSG -1 (but it seems everybody is liking this pick....and that's scary lol)
As a Benfica fan no bet for me and also the game could go either way.

Gl

Good thing I voided CSKA match, it would be half loss You have my analysis on PSG-1 few posts above, I made my call by my own, not going for public bet. But it's not expert pick, I don't wanna be blamed for your eventuall loss Use it as second opinion, not a expert pick

[Blackster]

Results October 23rd:

Anderlecht - PSG (0-5): PSG -1 (1,74) / 6 units - WON (+4,44 units)
Anderlecht - PSG (0-5): Over 2,5 goals (1,81) / 4 units - WON (+3,24 units)
Benfica - Olympiacos (1-1): Over 2,25 goals (1,78) / 4 units HALF LOSS (-2 units)

Daily profit: +5,68 units
----------------------------------------------

OVERAL RESULTS: 5W - 0D - 1,5L
OVERALL STAKED: 31 units
OVERALL PROFIT: +12,94 units

[zizoudane10]

Good stuff pal, keep'em coming

EL tomorrow, BIG card to look at. Having an eye on Eintracht Frankfurt right now. Have to look at the other games.

[Blackster]

Good stuff pal, keep'em coming

EL tomorrow, BIG card to look at. Having an eye on Eintracht Frankfurt right now. Have to look at the other games.

Had quite success with first two rounds in EL, mostly with overs, which surprised me. It's hard to level teams and compare them in such a mix of leagues they are coming from, so overs are more safe for me.

At first sight what I saw (didn't started yet), I'll keep eye on Tottenham -1,5, Lazio had high odd (1,7) in Cyprus and Lyon - Rijeka Over 2,5, since I am quite familiar with eastern football...

There will be something tomorrow for analysis

[Blackster]

Good stuff pal, keep'em coming

And of course:

[Blackster]

Initial thoughts on tomorrows EL games, I picked few interesting games from which I'll pick tomorrow after deeper analysis:

Apolon (CYP) - Lazio (ITA) -0,75 (1,99)
Can't see reason why odds on Lazio -0,5 are 1,72. Apolon won at Legia Warsaw game, but lost Trabzonspor at home. Should check all, and see if there is some catch in it.

Zulte - Maribor O2,5 (1,85)
Last game to stay in position to advance for both teams. Zulte is attacking team, and Maribor scored twice against Rubin and scored in Wigan. Knowing Slovenians, they will go for win tomorrow at any price, and their attackers Tavares and Mendy are capable of scoring even to stronger teams.

Ferreira - Dnipro AW (1,83)
Quite acceptable odd on extremely strong Ukrainian side, curretnly third placed in domestic league against Portugese team. Not familiar with Ferreira team (some infos would be appreciated if someone from Portugal read this). From What I saw, Ferreira lost all games from teams in range of Dnipro this year (Zenit 4-1, 4-2, Benfica 3-1, Porto 1-0)

Swansea - Kuban +1,5 (1,68)
Odd covering loss of Kuban with one goal is currently rising, and I believe it will rise during day as many stakes will go on Swansea and handicap. At first sight worth of watching while making better analisys.

Sheriff - Totenham -1,5 (2,01)
Will stick at my point of view that teams like Sheriff and other lower leagues teams are not capable to fight 90 minutes with top flight teams. I was watching Sheriff against Tromso, and they did nothing to impress me or to show they are capable of being equal to Tottenham. Much will depend on AVB's decisions, and after announcements i'll see if there is high chance to cover

Wigan - Kazan O2,5 (2,12)
I like high odd on O2,5 here, Kazan is quite high scoring team lately, Zulte got 4, Maribor 5, Anzhi 5, Molde 2 and 3 in playoff. I see Wigan highly fighting and Kazan capable of scoring...

Slovan - Sevilla O2,5 (1,95)
Closest to pick for now, although Slovan is struggling with form, they will definitely try to beat Sevilla at home. It will be a great game for town like Liberec and for home team. Slovan scored two goals to Zurich (twice), Udinese one and three, and Freiburg two as guests. They definitely can score against higher leagues teams. On other side Sevilla is coming wihout Rakitic (captain) and Marin (on loan frem Chelsea I think), but withut them they had good game against Valladolid and got 2-2. They will go for the win, Liberec will go for the win, everything is set for Over 2,5 @ quite high 1,95 odd

Lyon - Rijeka O2,5 (1,82)
I like Rijeka because I know they will go for fight there, and will not "park the bus in box". They are capable of scoring, they got it twice against Stuttgart, and scored against Betis, and they have in form Leon Benko who is quite extraodinary striker and you can see hunger for goals in him. They seem not to be afraid of higher loss if it takes to fight, and that is good for this bet. On other side, team like Rijeka could easily help Lyon break their bad form. I see them capable of scoring 3-4 goals to Rijeka, when they realize that defence of Croatian team is not defence from some Ligue1 team...

Will see tommorow what decisions will be made, and where to invest money (and try not to lose it)

[Blackster]

October 24th

Lyon - Rijeka

Ill repeat: I like Rijeka because I know they will go for fight there, and will not "park the bus in box". They are capable of scoring, they got it twice against Stuttgart, and scored against Betis, and they have in form Leon Benko who is quite extraodinary striker and you can see hunger for goals in him. They seem not to be afraid of higher loss if it takes to fight, and that is good for this bet. On other side, team like Rijeka could easily help Lyon break their bad form. I see them capable of scoring 3-4 goals to Rijeka, when they realize that defence of Croatian team is not defence from some Ligue1 team. Last season in CL Lyon had played twice against Dinamo Zagreb: 2-0@home and 1-7@Zagreb, with Gomis netting five times in two games. They will not respect Croatian defence and will definitely go for it.

My bet goes on: Over 2,5 goals (1,84) / 4 units

Zulte Waregem - Maribor

Last game to stay in position to advance for both teams. Zulte is attacking team, Belgian vicechampions, and Maribor scored twice against Rubin and scored in Wigan. Slovenians will go for win today at any price and they announced that, and their attackers Tavares and Mendy are capable of scoring even to stronger teams. Even more, Zulte will look for first goal of EL campaign since they didn't score yet. There is also younger Hazard looking for place in Belgian squad in Brasil, and expect from him to do everything to continue to score and set up goals. Two sides looking for win and decided to attack opponent - quite nice setup for over 2,5 goals...

My bet goes on: Over 2,5 goals (1,83) / 4 units

Apollon - Lazio

Lazio is under pressure, they last won month ago. Too much flopes for team of such status lately, and by what I saw they do not consider nothing less than 90 minutes of pressure and win. Although Apollon managed to get some good results in EL, winning against Legia last round, I can't imagine they could be equal to Serie A team with pressure of winning and putting all on this game. There is too much on stake for Romans not to win, and when going for not to score while they can. I'm afraid Apollon will get hurt from Lazio's position and attitude today, and win for Lazio is at least I expect today, making my handicap safe.

My bet goes on: Lazio -1 (2,29) / 5 units

Bordeaux - APOEL

Same thing as Lazio - Bordeaux is under pressure, and announced full serious approach with full capable squad against Cypriots. I do not underestimate Cypriot teams in both cases, but are too much money and too high salaries on stakes in top flight teams when they hit the bottom with form, although Bordeaux managed to get away lately. And they will not fool around today, Maccabi was good enough warning. APOEL managed to get draw at Maccabi, but got trashed at home by Eintracht. I can't see them getting draw here.

My bet goes on: Bordeaux HW (1,94) / 4 units

Wigan - Kazan Rubin

I like high odd here, Kazan is quite high scoring team lately, Zulte got 4, Maribor 5, Anzhi 5, Molde 2 and 3 in playoff. Russians will go for win here today, and in case they manage to win they will be almost for sure in. They are still missing key striker Rondon, but even without them they managed to score 12 goals in last 5 matches, including 4-0 win over Zulte Waregem. And they announced they will go for more today in England. On other side I see Wigan fighting till the end and even at losing with two goals. Enough arguments for at least two goals in game, but even more for some profit

My bet goes on: Over 2,25 goals (1,84) / 5 units

Slovan - Sevilla

Although Slovan is struggling with form, they will definitely try to beat Sevilla at home. It will be a great game for town like Liberec and for home team. Slovan scored two goals to Zurich (twice), Udinese one and three, and Freiburg two as guests. They definitely can score against higher leagues teams. On other side Sevilla is coming wihout Rakitic (captain) and Marin (on loan frem Chelsea I think), but withut them they had good game against Valladolid and got 2-2. They will go for the win, Liberec will go for the win, Sevilla with mixed team and ready to get some, and strong enough to score.

My bet goes on: Over 2,5 goals (1,89) / 4 units

Vasco da Gama - Goias

Second leg of Brasilian cup QF. Goias have 2-1 lead, and as it seems for now Vasco da Gama is giving up of Cup game, and turning to championship and fight for stay in top flight. They will rest most of players for upcoming match against Ponte Preta and make many rotations. Goias is set up for Cup, they see it as good oportunity, and does not think of dropping this today. Everything is set for at least draw, or win for Goias.

My bet goes on: Goias +0.25 (1,72) / 5 units

---------------------------------------------------
Hope I helped with my thougts, but use them only as someone's opinion while making your own decisions. GL, and let's all see some more $$ on our accounts tonight

OVERAL RESULTS: 5W - 0D - 1,5L
OVERALL STAKED: 31 units
OVERALL PROFIT: +12,94 units

[Blackster]

Doesn't look good at half time, Slovan - Liberec 1-0, Lyon - Rijeka 0-0, Apollon - Lazio 0-0. Let's hope we'll cash something in 2nd half

[Blackster]

Doesn't look good at half time, Slovan - Liberec 1-0, Lyon - Rijeka 0-0, Apollon - Lazio 0-0. Let's hope we'll cash something in 2nd half

0-3 on first games, 4 to go... Quite disapointing evening

[edabramov]

October 24th

Lyon - Rijeka

and 1-7@Zagreb, with Gomis netting five times in two games. They will not respect Croatian defence and will definitely go for it.

You know that game was highly suspected to be fixed right?

[Blackster]

You know that game was highly suspected to be fixed right?

If I remember it was HT/FT score, right? Doesn't matter in my analysis and Gomis feeling comfort because of goals

[Blackster]

Quite bad evening so far, 2 Wins, one half loss, three losses, one still to go after midnight.

[Blackster]

October 24th

Lyon - Rijeka (1-1) Over 2,5 - LOSS (-4 units)
Slovan - Sevilla (1-1) Over 2,5 - LOSS (-4 units)
Apollon - Lazio (0-0) Lazio -1 - LOSS (-5 units)
Wigan - Rubin (1-1) - Over 2,25 - Half LOSS (-2,5 units)
Zulte - Maribor (1-3) - Over 2,5 - WIN (+3,32 units)
Bordeaux - APOEL (2-1) - HW - WIN (+3,76 units)
-----------------------------------------------
Still to go: Vasco da Gama - Goias // Goias +0,25 (1,72) / 5 units
-----------------------------------------------
Daily profit: -8,52 units (OMG)
-----------------------------------------------

OVERALL RESULT: 7W - 0D - 5L
OVERALL STAKED: 57 units
OVERALL PROFIT: +4,42 units

[edabramov]

If I remember it was HT/FT score, right? Doesn't matter in my analysis and Gomis feeling comfort because of goals

Just sayin because you said Lyon wouldn't respect Croatian defence. In the champions league group they managed to net in only 2 goals in 5 games and then out of nowhere they scored 7 (coincidentally) enough to advance through at expense of Ajax. In my opinion Lyon is out of form and been doing downhill since they started selling their key players and not raising talent. Don't trust them with scoring much.

[Blackster]

In my opinion Lyon is out of form and been doing downhill since they started selling their key players and not raising talent. Don't trust them with scoring much.

I've learned that, and it costed me 4 units

Thanks for advice, and you can also always reply right after, it may give others better view on bet..

[edabramov]

I've learned that, and it costed me 4 units

Thanks for advice, and you can also always reply right after, it may give others better view on bet..

Right. Don't wanna seem like a smartass, wasn't home at the time, I'll try next time.

[Blackster]

Don't wanna seem like a smartass

Didn't think you are

[edabramov]

You'll bounce back tomorrow, stay positive. Lots of good games.

[new era]

You'll bounce back tomorrow, stay positive. Lots of good games.

like?