[tfsportsinfo]

Hey guys! New to this forum but not new to handicapping the beautiful game. The website I work for doesn't do soccer but I do for my own personal pleasure so I will start posting my write ups on here because I think this is a great community.

Yesterday was far more difficult than it needed to be but in the end we got the final results we were looking for with Steaua/Schalke and Napoli/Dortmund managing to eclipse the over 2.5 goals threshold while Arsenal and Porto were pretty straightforward giving us back to back 4-0 days in the Champions League.

Last year I made a killing backing overs in this tournament as the general tone of play was a more carefree open style and at one point the average goals per match was something stupid like 3.18 goals per match.


As usual, Vegas has made the adjustment and many of these totals are set at 3 even. Because of this and fear of a potential market correction I've chosen to stay away from totals completely today and see how the first match day of group play plays out.

Still, I've identified 6 sides I really like today and it just happens to work out that three matches kick off at 1pm and the other three at 3pm (Easily my favorite thing about Europa is the staggered match times). meaning if we can go at least 2-1 in both waves we should have a pretty good day.


1PM


Valencia to win (-135) - Valencia will be the typical case of a team that will struggle domestically this season, probably ending up near the middle of the table, and will look to make up for it with strong performances in this competition. The Mestalla is generally a difficult venue for visitors and Swansea just played an emotional match with Liverpool on Monday night, a mistake on the match bookers part as teams playing in European competition are rarely asked to play on a Monday night. Swansea will have tired legs on their trip to Spain and it will show.


Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk to win (-105) - This team made me a boat load in this competition last year as they were insanely undervalued throughout the competition, and while they garnered a bit more respect this year getting them to win at -105 here is really good value. They are away to Romanian side Pandurii but the game is being played at a neutral venue in Romania as Pandurii's home ground is not up to UEFA standards thus cannot host a Champions or Europa League match. I thought about draw no bet here but for whatever reason the odds are way shorter on this than I expected and I really like Dnipro to win outright in this spot so I'm going to go for a bigger win bet in this spot and take the risk of losing the bet should the match end in a draw.


Eintract Frankfurt to win (-145) - This will be my smallest of the 1PM plays but worth a play because I think Frankfurt is undervalued here on their home pitch. They are being judged by many for their poor home start to the Bundesliga season but these matches were against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund so the chance to earn points in either of those matches were slim. This is a solid team that will look to give their home supporters something to cheer about and I think this Bordeaux side lacks some of the quality I thought they may have had heading into this season.


3PM

Sevilla to win (-110) - Because Porto, Braga and Benfica represent the Portugese league so well in this competition it makes the other Portuguese teams overvalued as there is a large gulf in class after these three. Braga had a down year last year and it allowed Pacos De Ferriera into the Champions League Playoff Round where they were destroyed by Zenit St Petersburg. Sevilla is a quality Spanish side and is really good value here at -110. Again, odds super short on draw no bet so I'm going with a bigger win amount and I'll risk a potential loss in the event of a draw.

Freiburg to win (-135) - This is another case of a team struggling in their domestic league that will likely use Europa to highlight what would otherwise be a mediocre campaign. They simply outclass Liberec and should have very little trouble managing a win on their home pitch. With the pressure the fans put on their squads to succeed, I love backing teams that have struggled a bit domestically in a home match in European competition as they really tend to go for it. Thus there is no surprise we are on Valencia and Frankfurt in the early session and now Freiburg here.


Tottenham (-2.5) (-120) - I RARELY bet a handicap where I'm laying goals because I think it's a sucker bet for the general public who want to bet the big name team but this is a situation that rarely occurs and therefore an exception is in order. Tromso is only in this competition due to their FIFA Fair Play qualification, a ridiculous rule that rewards three teams a place in qualification due to good behavior (lowest rate of yellow and red cards and disciplinary measures). They are near the bottom of the table in Norway right now and staying competitive at White Hart Lane is a bit much to ask. Andre Villas-Boas is one of the few managers at a high profile club (I guess we can call Tottenham a high profile club now) that really does care about performing well in this competition. This handicap is a full goal too low, and this one will likely be in the 4-0 to 5-0 range with Tottenham completely dominating throughout.

Good luck to everyone today and if you are looking for an edge on American Football, come check us out at topflightsportsinfo dot com or give us a call at 1855 TOP FLYT for a free premium pick.

If not, enjoy the Europa League analysis and lets smash the books again today!

[BimmerFan89]

Sevilla win!