1. 07-21-13 07:41 AM #1
    alcoholiday
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    Botev to beat Levski in the Bulgarian A PFG, Sunday 21/07/13

    Thought I'll share my play here because I think there is good value in Botev ML. Basically Levski is historically the better team with more titles, hence the price. The situation at the moment however does not reflect these odds. Levski were awful in the Europa League loosing to Irtish Pavlodar 2-0 after 0-0 in Sofia. On the other hand Botev beat Astana which is the better team from Kazahstan from what I know, 0-1 away and 5-0 at home. They progressed and have an away goal advantage over the Bosnian side Zrinjski when in general Botev should have won at least 1-2 hitting the post from a 100% chance in the last minute and also missing a couple of more good chances.

    Levski are in a bad state at the moment, with a new coach just starting out. They sold their leading goalscoarer Bazil De Carvallhio recently and I do not see how this team will beat Botev at the start of the season. In addition to that both other title contenders Ludogoretz and CSKA lost points at the start of the season so loosing points against the best team in the A PFG for this season for me is almost certain. If you are looking for the safer bet you can go with DNB but I think Botev will win all three points here. Botev's odds dropped from 2.6 at Unibet to 2.3 overnight which just proves where the money is going.

    I've got this game in a parlay with Fognini ML and Karlovic ML on the tennis with combined odds of 5.84.


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  2. 07-21-13 07:52 AM #2
    alcoholiday
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    Just another quick note, Bazil De Carvallhio was actually the leading goalscorer in the A PFG for the last season and also the price is now 2.15 at Unibet so get the bets in quick if you do not want to loose value, also just wanted to let you know I'm a Levski Sofia fan but I'm fading them today
    Last edited by alcoholiday; 07-21-13 at 08:37 AM.
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  3. 07-21-13 10:20 AM #3
    alcoholiday
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    Levski score an early goal, even better value in 1x Botev at 2.10
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  4. 07-21-13 11:37 AM #4
    alcoholiday
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    and botev make it 2-1 Lets hope they finish this off with Levski down to 10 man
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  5. 07-21-13 11:42 AM #5
    Akatana
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    Great pick and Great insight's, thank's a lot.
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  6. 07-21-13 12:05 PM #6
    alcoholiday
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    Congrats to all that followed, was thinking of going really big on that game but was not sure if Botev will be 100% at the start of the season having an important Europa League game ahead, I'll try to make a thread for the Bulgarian A PFG this season. I've been following it for so long and sometimes there is big value on the markets as there is not much info for the current state of the teams
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  7. 07-21-13 12:11 PM #7
    Akatana
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    It will be great. Looking forward to it.
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