1. 12-17-12 07:53 AM #1
    pattymayo
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    Fading public in Streak for Cash

    I've noticed the higher percentage in espns streak for the cash (particularly in soccer) loses at a nice clip

    Today we have 87% on Giannina in Greek Super League

    The play is PAOK to win at +143

    Also EPL match is there with the vast majority on Arsenal to win (96%). Reading win/draw is the play. +1 at -117
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  2. 12-17-12 08:07 AM #2
    dacs
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    The percentage is based on?
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  3. 12-17-12 08:14 AM #3
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by dacs View Post
    The percentage is based on?
    Just people who pick each game. Google "espn streak for cash" and you'll get it
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  4. 12-17-12 09:02 AM #4
    dacs
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    How long have u observe? And wats the winning rate like?
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  5. 12-17-12 09:09 AM #5
    pattymayo
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    Since last Monday, the lower percentage soccer pick is 11-6
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  6. 12-17-12 09:50 AM #6
    thetrinity
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    they are basically giving arsenal to win at pick em odds when the real line is -170ish, im not seeing an angle here, why wouldnt everyone pick arsenal who was picking the game?
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  7. 12-17-12 10:12 AM #7
    dacs
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    Good luck to you. Will keep an eye on this thread.
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  8. 12-17-12 10:18 AM #8
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    they are basically giving arsenal to win at pick em odds when the real line is -170ish, im not seeing an angle here, why wouldnt everyone pick arsenal who was picking the game?
    Most of them are -- 96% on arsenal

    Such lopsided soccer matches tend to have crazy results when featured on streak so I think Reading +1 is worth a play
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  9. 12-17-12 10:27 AM #9
    pattymayo
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    Plays today:
    PAOK +166
    Reading +1
    Arsenal/Reading 1H O1.25
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  10. 12-17-12 11:12 AM #10
    hotelis
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    especially greece soccer! their are fixing games there. PAOK it is
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  11. 12-17-12 12:53 PM #11
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Most of them are -- 96% on arsenal

    Such lopsided soccer matches tend to have crazy results when featured on streak so I think Reading +1 is worth a play
    Maybe im lookng at this backwards, r u suggesting streak for the cash is actually sharp and know every1 is gona take arsenal? I always just looked at it as a freeplay type thing n figured they just put out just watever to try n drum up interest on games.
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  12. 12-17-12 12:56 PM #12
    16johnnymac
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    agree

    When the public is over 80% the public has )lost big time might be a good time to play underdog here
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  13. 12-17-12 01:09 PM #13
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by thetrinity View Post
    Maybe im lookng at this backwards, r u suggesting streak for the cash is actually sharp and know every1 is gona take arsenal? I always just looked at it as a freeplay type thing n figured they just put out just watever to try n drum up interest on games.
    Absolutely -- the "streak master" as he is called is super sharp-- especially in soccer. The majority that play are American and are not degenerate gamblers, so they just pick the well known team or obvious pick.
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  14. 12-17-12 01:29 PM #14
    pattymayo
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    PAOK with the win

    Next up: Reading Win or Draw has a mere 4.6% of all the picks

    I took Reading +1

    Another potential play is 1H goals 2 or more is at 40%

    I prefer more lopsided percentages so I'm not playing the 1H over.
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  15. 12-17-12 01:31 PM #15
    yisman
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    nice job, I like betting against big faves on sftc

    I tried to do it here but BI had only +130, 1 vice didn't have it, and Heritage didn't have it so I couldn't get a bet down

    major public picks are often the big faves anyway. PAOK was like +173 on Pinny
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  16. 12-17-12 03:51 PM #16
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Plays today:
    PAOK +166
    Reading +1
    Arsenal/Reading 1H O1.25
    2-1 today.

    I might limit these fades to non major leagues.. Not sure yet

    I still think this can be profitable if we pick our spots
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  17. 12-17-12 03:53 PM #17
    yisman
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    what I can tell you has been profitable is taking the underdog ML when you have +250 or up posting on SftC. Rarely happens.

    There was one a few days ago that I failed to bet (Golden State at Atlanta).
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  18. 12-17-12 04:05 PM #18
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    what I can tell you has been profitable is taking the underdog ML when you have +250 or up posting on SftC. Rarely happens.

    There was one a few days ago that I failed to bet (Golden State at Atlanta).
    All major sports are tougher than soccer IMO to win strictly betting on the lower percentage. I think the real edge is exclusively soccer

    You really need to pick your spots, but it's a good starting point when looking to fade the public
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  19. 12-17-12 09:46 PM #19
    pattymayo
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    Looks like three soccer plays will fit for Tuesday

    Mainz Win/Draw.. +1 (-131) reminds me of Arsenal/Reading game. I usually don't like taking the +1 when its juiced like that.. not sure if i'll play it

    Coppa Italia... Hellas Verona Win/Draw/Lose by 1... +1.5 (-121) same deal as above

    FC Augsberg Win/Draw/Lose by 1 ... +1.5 (+122) .. might play this one.

    All those have substantially lower percentages. Gotta think at least 1 outta 3 will hit.
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  20. 12-17-12 11:01 PM #20
    JuniorAnalyst
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    -131
    -121
    +122

    If you think maybe 1 might hit then your better of not touching any or just playing the +122
    my suggestion is lower your bet size by 50% or more and play the draw against big favs
    so take
    Mainz draw
    Coppa Italia +0.5
    FC Augsberg +0.5

    or look at playing the opponents TT under if its at like 3.5
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  21. 12-17-12 11:50 PM #21
    gizmo2431
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    i too have been noticing the same thing as the title of this topic. noticed the public traditionally losing on SFTC.

    aside from that, what is the pick for tomorrow in SFTC? I have a nice streak going, and i'd like to keep it alive! the "win by 2+ goals" bets always scare me....
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  22. 12-18-12 10:47 AM #22
    pattymayo
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    Looks like Mainz is getting pounded ... +.5 is the line now , or +.75 around close to even money

    Might be worth a shot -- Schalke not in good form, cup matches are unpredictable though. Do they care about it?


    Augsberg now +2 (-131) same deal as above

    Verona line has stayed about the same.
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  23. 12-18-12 10:49 AM #23
    pattymayo
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    The public could very well win all 3 of these matches. Not sure how comfortable I feel blindly fading them like I usually do the more I look into these matches
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  24. 12-18-12 11:10 AM #24
    pattymayo
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    Official Tuesday fades
    2-1 record to date

    Mainz +0.75 (-110)
    Augsberg +2 (-134)
    Verona +1.5 (-128)

    All three other sides getting heavy public action on streak for cash
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  25. 12-18-12 01:52 PM #25
    JuniorAnalyst
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    Mainz looks solid
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  26. 12-18-12 09:12 PM #26
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Official Tuesday fades
    2-1 record to date

    Mainz +0.75 (-110)
    Augsberg +2 (-134)
    Verona +1.5 (-128)

    All three other sides getting heavy public action on streak for cash
    1-1-1 on Tuesday's fade

    3-2-1 YTD

    Couple plays fit the bill for Wednesday-- first up is Fiorentina to advance over Udinese in Coppa Italia. Udinese getting 82% right now.

    I don't see a line on 'to advance' on 5d so I'll probably stay away from that one.

    Huge underdog is Leeds Win/Draw over Chelsea.. not surprisingly , 98% are on Chelsea. Leeds +0.75 might be worth a play
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  27. 12-20-12 05:12 PM #27
    pattymayo
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    Fading the public in soccer on Streak for Cash went 3-0 today... I only played one of them.

    4-0 if you count the early Hockey match
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  28. 12-20-12 05:15 PM #28
    pattymayo
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    Looks like Catania in Serie A and Derby County in English Champ to win are the plays tomorrow
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