1. 07-14-09 07:42 PM #1
    tbill11
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    The "I Don't Know Crap About These Teams" Method

    Well basically I've been using BetDevil pretty frequently to scout out games despite knowing absolutely nothing about any of these teams that I'm betting on...yet I've been pretty successful so far by using their probabilities and statistics. So I decided to track my picks and see how they go. This involves pretty extensive research since I've never watched any of these teams and know very little about any league other than Premiership, but I figured I'd post my picks and see how they do and see if I can improve as a capper through advice from people who actually do know about these teams.

    Today's Picks:
    Atletico Win or Draw
    $1 to win $1.25 for draw, or $1.85 for a win.

    Atletico looks to be a better team and BetDevil says that this play is all forces go. I had to give it a shot. Good luck. Please do not tail these picks and hold me responsible. I claim no knowledge about any of these teams.
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  2. 07-14-09 08:32 PM #2
    RoagBettor
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    There are 2 Atleticos, which one are you referring to?
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  3. 07-14-09 08:46 PM #3
    tbill11
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    Ahh, my mistake, the one playing Portuguesa. And to clarify, I put one unit on both the win and the draw, so if Portuguesa wins, I will be down 2 units.

    Edit: In the future, I'll clarify which league I'm betting on as well, because yes, the team names are rather confusing
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  4. 07-14-09 08:51 PM #4
    RoagBettor
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    I don't see any game listed on Bookmaker. Which league is it?
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  5. 07-14-09 08:53 PM #5
    tbill11
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    Brazilian B league. The game is in progress right now. Check soccerway.com for live scores. Atletico is losing to Portuguesa 1-0 coming out of halftime. Pick not doing so great right now, but hopefully Atletico will turn it around in the 2nd half. These are two high scoring teams so I doubt this one ends 1-0
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  6. 07-14-09 08:57 PM #6
    RoagBettor
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    Oh OK I thought it was tomorrow; good luck.
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  7. 07-14-09 11:06 PM #7
    tbill11
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    Alright rough first pick, here's the record after Day 1:

    "I Don't Know Crap About These Teams" Record:
    0-1 -2.00 Units

    Looking on towards tomorrow, my best bet will probably be to go after some Brazilian A league games in the afternoon. Japanese and Russian cup games are going on in the morning, but BetDevil doesn't have detailed statistics for cup games, making it pretty much impossible for me to use my method. Stick around until the afternoon and there should be some picks.
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  8. 07-15-09 04:49 PM #8
    tbill11
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    Alright, well yesterday didn't go so great, but I'm back with more attempts today.

    Brazilian A League

    Gremio/Coritiba OVER 2.5 (-130)
    These teams are both primarily over teams, and BetDevil has an astonishingly high probability of this happening considering the chalk is only -130. I've debated this one a lot, going back and forth because Gremio doesn't play great on the road and Coritiba doesn't play that well at home, but I think that it should go over.

    Palmeiras/Flamengo OVER 2.5 (-145)
    Kinda high chalk here, but I like this to go over even more than the other game. These teams score a ton of goals, both of them have overs of 7-3 this year, and I don't see this one going differently.

    Atletico-PR PK +155
    Another pick that looks pretty solid, Atletico had played better football than Santo Andre recently, and they're still getting a lot of crumbs on the PK play. Furthermore, Santo Andre is crap at home, and Atletico is at least pretty good on the road. This is the only one of the three that I will be personally playing, because I don't want to lay the heavy chalk on the other two.


    Good luck tonight guys!
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  9. 07-15-09 06:52 PM #9
    tbill11
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    Good news guys, first win for this system. Gremio/Coritiba over with plenty of time to spare. Sort of regretting not playing this one now! Now let's hope the next two perform similarly.
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  10. 07-15-09 09:52 PM #10
    tbill11
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    Alright, not a bad recovery, 2-1 (3-1 if you count my tailing if Karayilan's Palmeiras pick). Here's the updated record:

    "I Don't Know Crap About These Teams" Record:
    Day: 2-1 +1.00 Units
    Overall: 2-2 -1.00 Units

    Looks like there's some morning games tomorrow, so stay tuned!
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  11. 07-16-09 07:14 AM #11
    TurkzZ
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    good going man, i also make picks purly based on stats for teams i have no idea about, (MLS, Brazilian league), without regiestering for Bet365 you can go on there site and press on the little graph next to the game, it uses bet radar so its 1 of the best sorces of statistics. Keep up the good work dude
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  12. 07-16-09 03:54 PM #12
    tbill11
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    Thanks for the tips Turkz, I've been checking Bet365 out for info on these bets (along with BetDevil of course).

    Alright, for tonight here's what I've got:

    Brazilian A League
    Sao Paulo/Atletico Mineiro OVER 2.5 Goals (-105)

    Atletico Mineiro +105
    Altetico Mineiro flat out doesn't lose at home. They've haven't lost at home in 18 matches, and I don't Sao Paulo's going to be the team to end that streak. I expect Mineiro to come out, score some goals, and blow Sao Paulo out of the water at home. If you aren't feeling like taking the risk on the win, Bookmaker also offer PK at -150 (and I'm sure you can get better odds at an overseas book). For the sake of this "project" though, I'll go for the win.

    Vitoria PK -105
    Nautico has no right to be favored in this game, but the linemakers are scaring me by doing so. That said, I still think that at the very least the game will draw, and the best will push. If you can though, get an Asian Handicap on this game, because Vitoria is a far superior team catching nice odds.


    That's all for tonight boys. Good luck!
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  13. 07-16-09 05:06 PM #13
    TurkzZ
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    i also have Minerio and Vitoria, lets hope for a good night
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  14. 07-17-09 01:15 AM #14
    tbill11
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    Alright, not a bad day, ended up even after Vitoria couldn't hold onto a win, but no damage done. Here's the updated record.

    "I Don't Know Crap About These Teams" Record:
    Day: 1-1-1 +0.00 Units
    To Date: 3-3-1 -1.00 Units

    To be honest, I think both of the Irish games are going to go under tomorrow morning, but I'm not willing to pay -170 to take that risk on teams I don't know very well. I'm gonna leave these games alone for now and probably make more Brazilian picks in the afternoon.
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  15. 07-17-09 03:47 PM #15
    tbill11
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    Picks for tonight:

    Brazilian B League
    Vila Nova/Figueirense UNDER 2.5 Goals (-110)

    Braziliense to Win or Draw
    +200 for Win, +215 for Draw, a half unit laid on both plays

    ABC/Vasco de Gama UNDER 3 Goals (-150) 2 Units
    This line doesn't really make a great deal of sense to me since these are two under clubs for the year, ABC likely won't score against Vasco at all, AND BetDevil gives this game a 83% of going under 2.5 goals, much less three. That said, I'm pounding the under because I trust my method even though I probably shouldn't haha.

    Good luck!
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  16. 07-17-09 03:49 PM #16
    tbill11
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    Ahh quick change, the Vila Nova/Fig game is actually at -115, not -110. I'll keep that in mind when tabulating record but wont edit the original post for integrity's sake
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  17. 07-17-09 05:25 PM #17
    Phillth
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post
    Picks for tonight:

    Brazilian B League
    Vila Nova/Figueirense UNDER 2.5 Goals (-110)

    Braziliense to Win or Draw
    +200 for Win, +215 for Draw, a half unit laid on both plays

    ABC/Vasco de Gama UNDER 3 Goals (-150) 2 Units
    This line doesn't really make a great deal of sense to me since these are two under clubs for the year, ABC likely won't score against Vasco at all, AND BetDevil gives this game a 83% of going under 2.5 goals, much less three. That said, I'm pounding the under because I trust my method even though I probably shouldn't haha.

    Good luck!

    Yeah im glad someone else noticed this. i capped this match at 1-0 or 2-0 vasco. I got it at u3 -120
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  18. 07-17-09 09:20 PM #18
    tbill11
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    Man, rough evening. Oh well, regroup and try again tomorrow!

    Day Record: 0-2-1 -2.15 Units
    Overall Record: 3-5-2 -3.15 Units
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  19. 07-18-09 01:19 PM #19
    tbill11
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    Oh man, today found a pick that's like Christmas come early:

    Brazilian A League
    Goias PK +160 3 Units
    Seriously, the better squad is an underdog by this much against the 2nd worst team in the league? Either there's some information that I don't know, or this is one damn good play. Grab the Asian handicap on this if you can because a draw is likely, but there's no way in my mind that Flumininse wins this game.

    Santo Andre/Palmeiras OVER 2.5 Goals (-140)

    MLS
    SJ Earthquakes +1 (-130)
    Chicago is dead last in home games this year, and San Jose has actually been playing better soccer than Chicago recently. Hopefully a draw will happen and this will cover, but at least I don't think San Jose will lose by more than 1.

    SJ/Chicago OVER 2.5 Goals

    Alright good luck everyone!
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  20. 07-18-09 02:37 PM #20
    Phillth
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    I like the Goais pick. I also like the under in that match as both squads are playing with 2 days rest. Should be a slow match
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  21. 07-19-09 01:00 PM #21
    tbill11
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    Man, so close to a nice day with the Earthquakes draw in play, and then Chicago scored a stoppage time goal. Oh well, Goias did be well. Here's some picks for today:

    Updated Record:
    Day: 1-3 +0.7 Units
    Overall: 4-5-2 -2.45 Units

    Brazilian A League
    Gremio/Internacional OVER 2.5 Goals (-115) 2 Units

    Internacional PK +115

    Coritiba/Atletico PR OVER 2.5 Goals (-140)

    Avai PK +265

    Corinthians PK +140
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  22. 07-19-09 07:55 PM #22
    tbill11
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    Big day today friends. Avai and the Gremio/Internacional over really brought in the dough! We're finally in positive units as well! Here's my updated record:

    Day: 3-2 +3.65 Units
    Overall: 7-7-2 +1.2 Units

    Now for tomorrow morning, I actually am capping out the games now instead of coming home late at night and realizing that I don't have the energy to pick Finnish or Swedish soccer games. Learning from my mistakes though and trying to get something going now. Here are my plays:

    Sweden Allsvenskan
    Hacken PK +300
    I'm gonna press my luck here after Avai came through for me today. These teams are pretty evenly matched, and this is bound to be a low scoring game. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended in a draw or even if Hacken pulled out a 1-0 win. I think it's worth throwing a unit at just to see what happens.

    Halmsted PK +200
    Malmo should not be such a heavy favorite and Vegas will pay for making them one.

    AIK/Gais Goteborg UNDER 2.5 Goals (-165)

    Swedish SuperettanSiruis/Vasby OVER 2.5 Goals (-120)
    When two crappy teams get together, goals are bound to happen


    Alright I'm stopping myself there for tomorrow unless I see something else in the next few hours. Good luck everyone!
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  23. 07-20-09 02:01 PM #23
    tbill11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post

    Sweden Allsvenskan
    Hacken PK +300 WIN
    I'm gonna press my luck here after Avai came through for me today. These teams are pretty evenly matched, and this is bound to be a low scoring game. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended in a draw or even if Hacken pulled out a 1-0 win. I think it's worth throwing a unit at just to see what happens.

    Halmsted PK +200 PUSH
    Malmo should not be such a heavy favorite and Vegas will pay for making them one.

    AIK/Gais Goteborg UNDER 2.5 Goals (-165) LOSS

    Swedish SuperettanSiruis/Vasby OVER 2.5 Goals (-120) LOSS
    Well, great performance by Hacken to give me a positive day despite otherwise poor picks haha. I'll be back later with picks for tomorrow.

    Day Record: 1-2-1 +0.15 Units
    Overall: 8-9-3 +1.35 Units
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  24. 07-21-09 09:52 AM #24
    tbill11
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    Swedish Superetten
    Mjallby AIF +140

    Mjallby/IFK Norrkoping OVER 2.5 Goals (-140)

    This should be an easy, high scoring win for Mjallby.
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  25. 07-21-09 03:49 PM #25
    tbill11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post
    Swedish Superetten
    Mjallby AIF +140 WIN

    Mjallby/IFK Norrkoping OVER 2.5 Goals (-140) LOSS

    This should be an easy, high scoring win for Mjallby.
    And for tonight:

    Brazilian B League
    Juventude/Ipatinga UNDER 2.5 Goals (EV) 2 Units
    The bookmakers are severely wrong about this game...these are two under clubs that just happened to score a lot in their last game, which in my opinion, makes this even more likely to go under.
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  26. 07-22-09 03:35 PM #26
    tbill11
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    Overall: 9-11-3 -0.65 Units

    Brazilian A League
    Gremio/Avai OVER 2.5 Goals (-145)
    Gremio Barueri/Flamengo OVER 3 Goals (-120)

    Palmeiras 1 Unit on Win (+155), 1 Unit on Draw (+210)
    Palmeiras is great on the road and Goias is only mediocre at home. I really don't understand how Goias is favored in this one. We'll see how it plays out, but since Bookmaker hasn't posted a PK play, I'll play it like this on Palmeiras
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  27. 07-22-09 03:37 PM #27
    tbill11
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    Wow I did all my research before looking at Karayilan's picks for today, and looks like we're on all the same games for tonight. Damn, that makes me feel good haha. Good luck tailers!
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  28. 07-23-09 02:29 AM #28
    tbill11
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    Quite an awful day today...but there's always tomorrow!

    Day Record: 0-4 -4.65 Units
    Overall: 9-15-3 -5.30 Units

    I've got one shot in the dark pick for the morning.

    UEFA Europa League
    KR Reykjavik .5 Units to win (+675), .5 Units to Draw (+300)
    Honestly, I believe Reykjavik is the better team based on their performance both in the last game between these two, and in Icelandic league. I don't know much about either squad, but the odds are great for a good team like this. I'll take my chances.
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  29. 07-23-09 04:54 PM #29
    tbill11
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    The odds at Bookmaker are so awful that I have reduced plays tonight. At least Reykjavik came up big this morning and secured us a unit already today. Here's for tonight:

    Brazilian A League
    Vitoria BA PK +185
    I don't like Corinthians getting so much chalk, despite them being the better squad. Vitoria is just talented enough to pull off a draw or even sneak in a win. We'll see how this plays out.

    Vitoria/Corinthians OVER 2.5 Goals (-145)
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  30. 07-24-09 12:35 AM #30
    tbill11
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    Day Record: 2-1 + 1.00 Units
    Overall: 11-16-3 -4.30 Units
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  31. 07-24-09 06:36 PM #31
    tbill11
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    Brazilian B League
    Guarani -111
    Ceara 1 Unit for win (+175), 1 Unit for draw (+210)
    Ceara/Caxios UNDER 2.5 Goals (-120)

    Good luck everyone!
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  32. 07-25-09 07:29 PM #32
    tbill11
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbill11 View Post
    Brazilian B League
    Guarani -111
    Ceara 1 Unit for win (+175), 1 Unit for draw (+210)
    Ceara/Caxios UNDER 2.5 Goals (-120)

    Good luck everyone!
    Day Record: 1-2 - 1.56 Units
    Overall: 12-18-3 -5.86 Units

    So I guess my method's are not proving to be completely successful so far, but it's been short term, so I'm going to keep trying. Gotta learn a bit about the game before I can start raking in the profits. Anyway, here's some for tonight.
    MLS
    LA Galaxy PK -115
    LA/Kansas City UNDER 2.5 Goals (-125)

    LA has been fantastic on the road lately, and Kansas City is a mediocre team at best. I know LA's got the Beckham drama, but they're finally meshing as a squad, and I see them pulling out a win here tonight.

    DC United PK -130
    DC United/San Jose OVER 2.5 Goals (-135)

    San Jose, as usual, looks to have no chance in this game. I'm predicting a 3-0 DC United victory.
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  33. 07-26-09 12:57 AM #33
    tbill11
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    Well, both the sides pushed, but the O/U's both cashed!

    Day Record: 2-0-2 +2.00 Units
    Overall: 14-18-5 -3.86 Units

    Finnish Veikkausliga
    Lahiti/Rovaniemi Over 2.5 Goals (-120)
    IFK Mariehamn EV

    I'm not really liking very many of the other morning plays, but those two Finnish ones should be winners!
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