As usual, one unit per bet and prices are from pinnacle.
Avaí -0.5/-1 vs Guaratinguetá (1.74) - Avaí a very decent home team, sitting 6th in the home standings with 9 wins in 12 matches, including winning every game versus teams in the bottom half of the standings. They face Guaratinguetá, a particularly bad away team, 17th overall and 18th in the away standings, with 9 losses in their 12 road games. A lot of Avaí's home wins have been by a single goal, but Guaratinguetá also has a history of dropping games by multiple goals on the road. Here we look to make a little profit on a simple, one goal win by Avaí and cash the whole bet if they manage to get a more confortable win as expected.
Avaí - Guaratinguetá - over 2.5 (1.73) - 67% of Avaí's home matches and 67% of Guaratinguetás away matches have seen over 2.5 goals. Avaí has scored in every single home game as Guaratinguetá has conceded in every single away game. At the same time, they have also scored in 9 of their 12 road matches. Even at this price, there's plenty of value on the over here. (one could also take the over 2.5/3 for close to even money, but i feel this is the better bet).
ABC vs Guarani +0.5 (1.82) - ABC struggles at home, sitting 17th in the home standings and only winning 4 games out of 12 home matches. Of those 4 wins, 3 were against teams sitting 16th or lower. Guarani is not a superb away team, but they are in good form, with only one loss in their last 8 overall games and having only lost one road game against teams in the bottom half of the standings all season. Good value for them to get at least a point in this matchup.
Joinville vs Paraná - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - Everything screams under in this one - only 33% of both Joinvilles home games and Paranás away matches have ended in under 2.5 goals, including 5 of the last 6 for Joinville and all 6 of the last 6 for Paraná. All of Joinvilles home games against teams ranked 7th through 15th (Paraná is 12th) have gone under and all of Paranás road games against teams ranked 3rd to 11th (Joinville is 6th) have also gone under. I don't believe in locks in soccer betting, but as far as stats are concerned, they rarely make so much sense than this under.
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