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Brasil Serie A tonight
Only two games in Brazil tonight, and not a lot of value offered by the books. Will do a write-up for both games as i have not decided the plays yet:
Botafogo vs Internacional - Two of the better teams in the league, looking to move up in the standings. Botafogo is in good form, having won their last 3. They have struggled a bit at home, sitting only 11th in the home standings (they are 5th overall), with 6 wins in 12 matches. Also cause for concern is the fact they only have one win in 5 matches against the top half of the table. Seedorf is still in doubt for the game and should be a game-time decision on weather he plays (competent uruguyanLodeiro should replace him if not). As for Internacional, they have struggled lately, with two losses and two draws in their last four games. They have been missing key players in some recent games, most of which will be back tonight - Guinazu, Forlan and Leandro Damiao have returned from international team duties and D'alessandro from suspension. They'll still be missing some players on defense and midfielder Dagoberto. Key fact is that Internacional's only 3 away wins were against the 17th, 18th and 19th placed teams so they certainly struggle against better teams.
Lean so far is either Botafogo pk (1.78) or pk, -0.5 (2.15). Playing the draw certainly under consideration as well.
Gremio vs Nautico - Gremio is the super clear favourite here, 3rd overall and 2nd best team at home with 9 wins in 11 matches, playing a Nautico team that is terrible on the road - 19th in the away standings with 9 losses in 12 matches. But at only 1.35, not a lot to be made on taking the Gremio moneyline. pinnacle offers Gremio -1.5 at 1.9, which could be interesting as Gremio has six wins against teams ranked 15th and bellow and four wins by more than one goal. On the other hand, 7 of Nautico's 9 losses were by more than one goal.
As for the over, Pinnacle offers over 2.5and3 at 1.92, which is the only bet i have made thus far on these games. Although only 45% of Gremios home games have had over 2.5 goals, 6 of their 7 matches against the bottom half of the table have had at least 3, showing how much better they do against worst opposition. At the same time, not only have 67% of Nauticos away matches had over 2.5 goals, but also 6 of their 7 against teams ranked 12th or higher have seen the over cashing.
That's what's coming tonight, will look a little more into those two games, but leaning the Botafogo pk/-0.5 and the Gremio -1.5
Good luck tonight guys and all opinions are greatly appreciated!
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. how do you feel about our knicks this season (huge nyk fan here too)?
Originally Posted by silvap
good writeups 