[silvap]

Another big day in Brazil's second division, here are my thoughts on tonights action

Guaratinguetá vs Paraná - draw (0.75 units at 3.42 on pinnacle) - No real edge for either team here, Paraná has been bad on the road, with 5 ties in 11 away matches, which is a lot. Guaratineguetá playing very close games against team who sit near Paraná on the table: 2-1 vs 9th placed Ceará, 1-1 vs 10th placed Avaí and 0-0 against 14th placed BkofAma - Paraná is 12th. Should be a close game and has a very decent chance to end in a draw.

America Mineiro vs Sao Caetano pk and +0.5 (1.83 at pinnacle) - America MN is 7th overall but they have not been good at home - they are 15th in the home standings and have not won any of their last 6 home matches. Sao Caetano, 6th overall, are the second best away team, with only a single loss in their last 10 away matches. With the chance to make some profit on a draw as well, seems like there's plenty of value here.

ASA vs Joinville - over 2.5 goals (1.94) - 4 of the 5 matches ASA has played at home vs the top half of the table teams have produced 3 or more goals. Joinville (4th overall) playing vs the bottom teams have also produced plenty of goals.

Guarani -0.5/-1 vs Gremio Barueri (1.72) - Being conservative here, Guarani very much the favourites vs the poor Gremio Barueri. Barueri are 19th on the away standings, have only gotten points twice in 11 road matches - on their two games against the other bottom of the league teams. Guarani could well win by more than one goal but they have only done so twice at home this season, so by taking this line, we ensure some profit on a single goal win and can hope for a more confortable win.

ABC vs Ceará pk and +0.5 (1.74) - Once again, being conservative to try to ensure profit, as simply taking Ceará pk here could prove to be value play. ABC not a strong home team, sitting 16th in home standings (13th overall). In their last 4 home matches, they struggled to beat dead last Gremio Barueri (2-1), tied 2-2 against 18th placed Ipatinga and have lost to 14th and 7th placed teams. Ceará on the other hand, are strong away team, as they sit in 6th place in the away standings (9th overall) with 3 wins and a draw in their last 4 away matches. Finaly, ABC has not beaten any of the top half of the table teams, where Ceará sits. With the draw looming as a possibility, taking the +0.5 as well as the pk should provide some ensurance of profit here.

Bragantino vs America RN - over 2.5 goals - Two teams with dreadfull defenses who should be playing openly to try to reverse their terrible fortunes - Bragantino has not won in their last 8 home games and America has not won in their last 10 away. In that span, America had conceded in every single one of those games and scored in 7 of those, as Bragantino every one of their games against the top half of the league has resulted in the game going over 2.5 (America are 8th overall thanks to a great home record).

Those are my plays for tonight, best of luck on yours

[BigBurk]

Great write ups, best of luck tonight!!!