These first two are like when I do the Draw Project, except we're obviously looking for wins here. Think one of the EPL squads will lose, so taking a shot on a pair of teams to score the upsets. Split & profit is still the goal.
FA Cup "Win" Project Swindon Town +221
Birmingham City +150
[Spain La Liga] Malaga-Atletico Madrid Over 2.5 [-114] Madrid has given up 14 goals in their last four road tilts in league play, while scoring five. Malaga have been solid at home with multiple goals in five of seven. They have not kept a clean sheet in five straight at home. Madrid features a new manager for this one, so I'd expect the players to try to impress Diego Simeone. With five of their seven road matches finishing at three goals or more, I'd look for more of the same on Saturday with a nice, open match hopefully full of goals.
[England FA Cup] Bristol Rovers-Aston Villa Over 3 [-110] Bristol has given up an obscene amount of goals in League Two lately, 14 allowed in their last four. Aston Villa certainly is no juggernaut at the EPL level, but have capable goal scorers and can break out at any time as they showed against Chelsea a couple matches back with three goals. Villa also isn't keen on keeping clean sheets with just three in their last 15 overall matches. Bristol has given up multiple goals in six of their last eight in League Two - that should bode well for Aston Villa netting some goals today and I think Bristol at home will be lively enough to add to the total at least once.
[Spain La Liga] Real Madrid-Granada Over 4 [-110] No doubt that Real will be out for blood at home today. In six of seven at home, they have scored at least three goals by themselves and four or more in five of those. They have just one clean sheet at home and have been giving up a few goals in their last three overall [5]. Granada have acquitted themselves well on this level, but have yet to face either of the two powerhouses in La Liga this season. The first trip to Madrid will be an eye opener here. The handicap is -3 which I'm not too keen on for Real, even though they could cover with ease. Rather, I'm going with goals as I expect them to fill it up and with their lack of clean sheets so far - Granada could help add to the tally.
[Mexico Primera] Cruz Azul-Tigres Under 2.5 [-122] Tigres almost always plays a tight, defensive style on the road. In Apertura play, Tigres saw all eleven road games finish at two goals or under. They kept seven clean sheets. The defending champs would be glad I think to earn a point with a draw today, while Cruz Azul will be seeking to start Clausura play with a bang and a win over Tigres. While Cruz Azul did not keep many clean sheets at home, they only allowed two goals in one of nine home matches. Tigres did not score than one goal in any road match in Apertura play.
Yeah tough sledding in that one. Probably needed that one to remind me not to get involved with matches where new managers are in control. Always tough to gauge. Oh well, cerveza time for Mexico ... let's see some more ... lack of scoring!
Yeah there were some anxious moments in that one. I had considered the draw too, but feel lucky to hit the under. Not done yet. Looking at Australia and late Mexico. Eurotrip coming on one of the HBOs ... it's a good night ...
[Australia A-League] Sydney-Central Coast Over 2.5 [-124] What's not to like for goals here? Sydney has given up ten in their last three matches overal.. Four out of six home matches have hit for at least three goals. Central Coast have put up multiple goals in five straight on the road with only one clean sheet out of seven road trips. First meeting between these two had five goals. Sign me up.
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