[Daveyboy]

I am only keen on one of this services tips this weekend so here it is:

Tottenham to beat Arsenal 6/5

Also a candidate for BetFred’s Goals Galore slip, Tottenham head into this weekend’s North London Derby against Arsenal with momentum fully on their side.

Harry Redknapp had the luxury of resting all of his first team players bar the energetic Kyle Walker for Thursday’s Europa League tie with Shamrock Rovers. Spurs won that game 3-1 at White Hart Lane. Arsenal meanwhile were made to work for their 2-1 home victory against Olympiacos on Wednesday. Arsene Wenger started 5 players on Wednesday that also played against Bolton last weekend. On top of that, Aaron Ramsey, Robin van Persie and Kieron Gibbs all made substitute appearances.

Fatigue appeared to play apart for a number of teams after matchday 1 of the Champions League and Europa League. Notably, Arsenal lost 4-3 at Blackburn, Stoke City lost 4-0 at Sunderland and Birmingham City lost 4-1 at Southampton. Arsenal are the travelling side this weekend. Albeit not very far.

On top of playing a number of first team players midweek, Arsene Wenger will be missing both Thomas Vermaelen and Jack Wilshere through injury. Gervinho, Laurent Koscienly and Theo Walcott all missed the midweek game, but they may have been rested with this game in mind rather than anything too serious.

On the injury front for Tottenham, they will be without Michael Dawson for the fourth consecutive league game (they’ve conceded 1 goal in his absence, compared to the 8 with him), William Gallas, who has been injured all season. Niko Kranjcar and Tom Huddlestone are also absent through injury.

Neither of those midfielders would expect to start though. And midfield is where I expect Tottenham to win the battle and this game. Defensively, Scott Parker has conceded 1 goal in his 3 games since moving at the end of the transfer window. He’s added good protection to a defence that was weak last season. Alongside him is Sandro, who returned last weekend to play all but the full match at Wigan. Both are solid holding midfielders whose task it will be to stop Mikel Arteta and Aaron Ramsey taking control of the game.

Sandro also offers an option going forward, at the displeasure of his manager. It’s Tottenham’s attacking midfielders that stand out in this game. On paper and based on last season’s performances. Rafael van der Vaart scored 3 and assisted 2 more of the 6 goals Tottenham put past Arsenal last season. He scored his first goal of this season last weekend.

Both van der Vaart and Luka Modric will be looking to exploit the space around the penalty area that neither Alex Song and Emmanuel Frimpong cover well. I expect the Dutch and Croatian playmakers respectively to do just that.
The striker they have to setup in this game is the one and only Emmanuel Adebayor. The ex-Gunner was determined to score against his former side two years ago for Manchester City, and celebrated in extraordinary circumstances. You think he’ll want to do the same again? You bet. Adebayor is 5/1 to be first goalscorer and 6/4 to score any time against a defence that has shifted 12 goals in their last 2 Premier League away games (8 at Manchester United, 4 at Blackburn).

One last Tottenham midfielder who may have a say in this game is Gareth Bale. He too scored his first goal of the season last weekend and has scored twice in the last three meetings between these two sides. He’ll be looking to take advantage of any space Bacary Sagna leaves when going forward. Tottenham are a good side on the counter attack.

Going forward for Arsenal, Robin van Persie scored twice against Bolton last weekend and now has 3 on the season. Their only other player to have scored more than once is Mikel Arteta. The Spurs defence may also want to be cautious about Gervinho, provided the former Lille forward starts. He’s looked lively in the games he has played in; albeit with just a solitary goal in his 4 Premier League games.

Andrey Arshavin isn’t the attacking player he use to be. Tomas Rosicky has not been the best of midfielders over the past couple of seasons. Tottenham’s defence has only conceded 1 goal in their last 3 games, and Arsenal look to be relying on van Persie for goals in this game.

With all that taken in consideration, and Arsenal with just 1 win in their last 6 meetings with their most-hated rivals, I think there’s great value on Tottenham to win this game at 6/5.

Other bet’s worth considering are as follows:
Both teams to score: 4/7
Over 2.5 goals: 4/6
Over 3.5 goals: 13/8
Correct score – any unquoted (either side to score 4 goals or more): 8.0

[Daveyboy]

Adebayor let me down but otherwise it was a good Sunday

[Daveyboy]

Looking back at their tips they were 3/3 on the main ones this week. Damn, I didn't trust them on Liverpool or Chelsea