1. 07-20-11 08:11 AM #1
    beefcake
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    Foot off the Gas theory..

    Anyone else ever notice in Champions League or Europa League qualies when a team has a insurmountable goal difference and the team that got their ass kicked comes home the away team tends to take their foot off the gas and more or less doesnt give a shit if the home team wins by a small margin. Reason I'm saying this is we have 2 games today that would fit this mold.

    Breidablik down 0-5 to Rosenborg..+720 to win..

    Borac Banja Luka down 5-1 to Maccabi Haifa +650..

    You would think that the home team has a lot of pride and wants to go out on a good note for the fans and the away side would tend to play conservative and maybe not start a player ir 2 or take out the top guys say in the 60th or 70th min if the score was tied with no chance of losing the advantage.
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  2. 07-20-11 10:22 AM #2
    JT OZ
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    Solid logic with the potential for a big payout, are you biting?
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  3. 07-20-11 10:36 AM #3
    RubberKettle
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    Breidablikis a bad team and the 1st leg score could have easily been 8-0 if Rosenborg had their shooting boots on in the 1st half.....but if Rosenborg leave out players like Henriksen, Prica and Skjelbred it could be a draw or a narrow win.
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  4. 07-20-11 10:46 AM #4
    beefcake
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    Thanks for the player names Kettle, I'll look at lineups and if they are not in I might play em ML small or +1
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  5. 07-20-11 11:16 AM #5
    RubberKettle
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    Skjelbred has transferred to Hamburg HSV so don't look for him

    EDIT: seems as if he will leave in January 2012 so hes eligible to play for Rosenborg till then.
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  6. 07-20-11 02:17 PM #6
    RubberKettle
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    Its looking very good so far Beef
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  7. 07-20-11 03:02 PM #7
    awesomeness
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    looking nice!!!!!!!!
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  8. 07-20-11 03:18 PM #8
    beefcake
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    Dam you Dvalishvili!! I would do cartwheels to get 1 out of 2 here..
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  9. 07-20-11 03:36 PM #9
    beefcake
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    YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  10. 07-20-11 03:41 PM #10
    pouroupoupou
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    Great picks beefcake.
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  11. 07-20-11 04:04 PM #11
    RubberKettle
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    Did you end up playing these on ML's?
    Even +1 you did great

    Very impressive
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  12. 07-20-11 04:05 PM #12
    The Special One
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    fantastic work.
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  13. 07-20-11 04:10 PM #13
    theplagy
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    cashed both !
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  14. 07-20-11 04:30 PM #14
    necro
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    very nice picks beefcake, i've taken banjaluka live dnb +260 when the score was 2-2 )
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  15. 07-20-11 05:20 PM #15
    beefcake
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    Played ML for .25 unit and Spreads for 1..

    Thanks guys...
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  16. 08-04-11 09:30 AM #16
    beefcake
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    I see a few today...

    FK Sarajevo +324

    Vaduz +267..
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  17. 08-04-11 11:20 AM #17
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    I see a few today...

    FK Sarajevo +324

    Vaduz +267..

    GL, I am tailing you on both!
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  18. 08-04-11 02:38 PM #18
    beefcake
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    Hold em off Vaduz!
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  19. 08-04-11 02:50 PM #19
    beefcake
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    Looks like 1-1 today..I'll take it
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  20. 08-04-11 02:53 PM #20
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Looks like 1-1 today..I'll take it

    I applied your concept to the Hacken vrs Nacional Game and it was a win!

    Thank you for your post great details !!!!
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  21. 08-04-11 03:11 PM #21
    beefcake
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    I would prefer a 4 or 5 goal cushion for these games, but glad you hit with hacken!
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  22. 08-23-11 07:08 AM #22
    beefcake
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    Well Malmo is down 4-1 and at home and is +250..I usually would prefer a 4 goal or more cushion, but might be worth a go..
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  23. 08-23-11 03:29 PM #23
    beefcake
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    Looks like another winner!
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  24. 08-23-11 03:30 PM #24
    OneTipster
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    Congrats!
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  25. 08-23-11 03:32 PM #25
    beefcake
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    4-1 so far..Rabotnicki, maybe Dnipro,Panathinaikos,Alania on thursday..
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  26. 08-23-11 03:39 PM #26
    beeps220
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    Love these plays beefcake! I missed this one but great hit.
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  27. 08-23-11 04:06 PM #27
    beeps220
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    Love these plays beefcake! I missed this one but great hit.
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  28. 08-24-11 12:51 PM #28
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Well Malmo is down 4-1 and at home and is +250..I usually would prefer a 4 goal or more cushion, but might be worth a go..
    I hit the Malmo game DNB at 2.75, I use your theory here.
    I have it now as a rule of thumb!

    this info was golden!
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  29. 08-24-11 01:17 PM #29
    beefcake
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    Sucks that The qualies are almost over..maybe this would work for AFC Qualies or CONCACAF???
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  30. 08-24-11 01:43 PM #30
    pavyracer
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    It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.
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  31. 08-24-11 02:06 PM #31
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Sucks that The qualies are almost over..maybe this would work for AFC Qualies or CONCACAF???
    I will try it on concacaf.
    Right now they are onthe group stage so we will have to wait until the next rounds.
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  32. 08-24-11 02:08 PM #32
    cogiditopapa
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.

    Foot of the gas meaning the team that has an adventage doesn't need any more goals = They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg

    Same thing, Cake just called it " foot of the gas".
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  33. 08-24-11 02:16 PM #33
    beefcake
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    Yes, I have to admit my betting theories are whacked a bit, but that's the kind of bettor I am, sometimes they work and sometimes they fall flat..
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  34. 08-24-11 02:21 PM #34
    The Special One
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.
    yes it is... foot TOTALLY off the gas
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  35. 08-24-11 03:24 PM #35
    pavyracer
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    So Arsenal is playing with the foot off the gas now because they have already won first game.
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