[JBT]

My buddy claims to be hitting 10 out of 15 plays (66%) with an average odds of at least 1.7+ European or -140 US.

He also claims he is usually hitting 7 out of 10 plays at the same odds (70%).

The way he is playing it is, he places only 1.5€ on a 10 to 15 play parlay EVERY SUNDAY hoping that he will eventually cash on it and make around 4000€ out of a 1.5€ parlay (depending on the average odds). He says he's been close to cashing it several times, and he believes to be DUE to cash it eventually. Now I am well aware of how unlikely him cashing such a play is, but I am still wondering what's the best way to make some money out of his picks individually or as a 2, maybe 3 play parlays, assuming what he's claiming (hit percentage) is for real. So for the next few weeks, I will be posting his plays. If I can get them early, great, if not, I will take a photo of his ticket (he's placing them locally) and post it here.

Please help me analyze his bets and find a way to monetize on them (if possible), or call him a bluff!

Makes sense?

PS: He has no reason to lie to me, he is my good friend, just with a bad understanding of what the odds of a 10+ play parlay hitting are... he can't be convinced that he's better off play smaller parlays (or single bets), because those just don't pay enough AT ONCE to catch his interest, even though IN REALITY he would be more than happy to earn €150+ more per month considering his current financial situation (hence why he is only betting 1.5€ per week on 10+ play parlays).

All I am asking of you is that after a few weeks of me posting his plays (assuming they hit at a rate close to what he claims they usually do) you help me find a system to monetize on them the best...

Good luck to us all!

[beeps220]

Just my 2 cents, every buddy I know always claims to be a game or two off of hitting their parlay. Yet whenever I'm around them they can't get a game right to save their life.

[JOHON8]

Post the parlays and I can tell you if it's a good idea or not.

[JBT]

The thing is, is saw with my own eyes a 7-3 parlay 2 weeks ago (after he told me that was his regular percentage), and he "claims" to have went 10-5 a week after, but I wasn't around to confirm it. I am not claiming anything but what I can donfirm, so I will be posting his plays as I get them, so we can analyze them together... Please bookmark this thread and let's see if we can make some money together.

[JOHON8]

Alright good idea, looking forward to it.

[JBT]

Just my 2 cents, every buddy I know always claims to be a game or two off of hitting their parlay. Yet whenever I'm around them they can't get a game right to save their life.

I know man, which is why I will be posting his plays in this thread as I get them. If he's telling the truth, we can all make some money, if not, it's just another loosing bettor. I just need you guys to help me find the best system to bet his plays, assuming they are indeed hitting at 66% and average odds that I've mentioned...

[JBT]

Just don't crucify me if the first post of plays I forward goes under 50%

(remember, don't play them at first, just observe them)

[JBT]

He said there weren't many games he liked this Sunday and decided to wait for the Euro 2012 qualifiers to be over so the club matches can continue at full force.

[Rolo1984]

no offence. But everyone doing parlays has absolutely no idea what they are doing. Doing parlays has the exact same EV as doing them single. It only increases variance. Doing parlays is basically retarded. When you are talking about individual independent events

[JBT]

no offence. But everyone doing parlays has absolutely no idea what they are doing. Doing parlays has the exact same EV as doing them single. It only increases variance. Doing parlays is basically retarded. When you are talking about individual independent events

It's HIM who is doing the parlays, I am only asking about a way to best monetize on his plays as singles or small parlays, assuming his hit rate proves to be factual over a long run.

While I'm not advocating 10+ play parlays, laying 1.5€ for potential 4000€+ does not sound like a negative EV to me, especially if he's often very close to hitting. Keep in mind that a beer in a pub here costs 2.5€, so for a price of two beers per month he has 4 chances to hit several thousand euros... I know chances are low, but so is the amount he is risking and if he does hit it one day, it's gonna be a big day for him

Either way, it still by far beats the odds of hitting a 7 number lottery ticket I believe...

[donkson]

no offence. But everyone doing parlays has absolutely no idea what they are doing. Doing parlays has the exact same EV as doing them single. It only increases variance. Doing parlays is basically retarded. When you are talking about individual independent events

This isn't true 100% of the time, parlaying 2/3/15 random league games during a season then yeah it's probably true, but there are definitely spots where parlays can be useful.

[Rolo1984]

This isn't true 100% of the time, parlaying 2/3/15 random league games during a season then yeah it's probably true, but there are definitely spots where parlays can be useful.

Parlays can ONLY be more +EV when events in a parlays are somewhat dependent on eachother. An example could be o/u and hcp or something.

INDEPENDENT events do not create more value in a parlay

[Rolo1984]

It's HIM who is doing the parlays, I am only asking about a way to best monetize on his plays as singles or small parlays, assuming his hit rate proves to be factual over a long run.

While I'm not advocating 10+ play parlays, laying 1.5€ for potential 4000€+ does not sound like a negative EV to me, especially if he's often very close to hitting. Keep in mind that a beer in a pub here costs 2.5€, so for a price of two beers per month he has 4 chances to hit several thousand euros... I know chances are low, but so is the amount he is risking and if he does hit it one day, it's gonna be a big day for him

Either way, it still by far beats the odds of hitting a 7 number lottery ticket I believe...

i know you are talking about your friend. Again no offence, but the fact you are basically advocating his style of betting is telling me you do not know the math behind it. I am saying parlays do not create MORE value. If two indepentent bets are +EV putting them into a parlays create the exact same EV. But you add a lot of variance to it.

The fact that he is close is exactly what the variance is. You take 10 favorites and you get a nice payout. 1 doesnt win and you lose. The way you reason is how people reason if they play the lottery. Noone thinks about the fact you lose almost always. This is how gambling addicts reason as well. 'i could win this' they never think about waht they lose. You talk about the 1 hit but the next months he doesnt hit. But when he hits he is going to say 'see it worked' which is retarded because i can tell him every time is doesnt work. But then you get the remark 'if i hit i hit big' but you just dont hit often.

Bookies will take your parlays gladly.

Again, anyone advocating parlays consisting of independent events is proof of someone not really knowing what sportsbetting is based on.