[Jayvegas420]

I ended up taking Tigers FF & Tigers +201

They're trying to hang on but, 3 runs is nothing with this bullpen.

[KVB]

Just a quick check in for tonight's game. Again, it's early in the season but here are the numbers I have...

Both the stacking forecast and the public gauge give Winnipeg about a 3 to 6 point win in a 51-53 point game. This isn't far from the offered spread.

The sharpest forecast I can make disagrees here and gives Toronto the win with 34 or 36 points to Winnipeg's 24 or 25.

I still think we need more games under our belt for the numbers to solidify and the market to mature but it is what it is with the Toronto prediction.

I'd be surprised to see the upset win here and with the line moving from 3 to 3.5 then back in this situation does give some indication this one is the 3 point Winnipeg victory, pushing the later money that traded off of 3.5.

The sharps, at least whatever ones there are, seem to have picked +3.5 as the buy, the public may even have gotten some of it as well. I doubt we see much of it again.

[KVB]

For the first game tonight each team has three games under their belt. We still need 4 games for the market to really get into swing but here are the numbers I have.

The sharpest forecast I can make has Calgary winning with 27 or 28 points to Montreal’s 22 points. This is right at the market opener of Calgary -6 as well as the Total of 49.5

The stacking forecast has a closer game with Calgary winning with 27 points to Montreal’s 24 or 25 points. I point this forecast out specifically as the line seems to have moved towards it.

Less sophisticated numbers have a slightly lower scoring game with Calgary scoring about the same 27 points but Montreal scoring in the late teens. The public gauge gives Calgary an 11 point victory.

Clearly, the market is sharpening with 3 games played, there’s evidence in the numbers above compared to the offered lines.

I have indications that the public may be right as Calgary is on a roll, but I think the Total is where they go wrong.

Looking at the sharp forecast, I believe the opener has sidelined some sharper bettors and as the line fell off of 49, it was quickly snatched up. With some players sidelined, a classic public Over could be ripe for paying.

Instead of passing, as from the long term perspective, I’ve picked up OVER 49.5 (-103) for Calgary Stampeders versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the trading account.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

A few things I didn't get into here, at least yet, one of which is the effect of having two games with roughly the same point spread being offered. This is by design and the inevitable uncertainty of the first game can contribute to an Over play.

I have to run out, hopefully I can touch on this for game two.

[KVB]

For the second game tonight the sharpest forecast I can make has Edmonton winning with 31 points to Ottawa’s 27 or 28 points.

The stacking forecast has Edmonton scoring 31 points as well with Ottawa scoring 24 points.

This time, the line opened at the stacking forecast and has moved to the sharp forecast. It’s one of the reasons I mentioned the line movement on the first game. Again, this pairing is by design and those in the previous CFL thread have learned a bit about this behavior.


Even with only two Edmonton games so far, the money seems to be sharpening in the marketplace but as the market matures, I may get into those mechanics a bit more.

Interestingly, less sophisticated methods almost all yield about 31 points for Edmonton. The public gauge makes the game closer, giving Ottawa 30 points.

There is literally a consensus among the main numbers I post of 31 points for Edmonton. A consensus over 30 like this could spell doom for Edmonton. Edmonton only has two games played so far, so this is likely the first of what will be two or three times where we see an extreme consensus. It’s something to watch.

In short, the public was on Calgary and are now taking Ottawa, for the most part. If Calgary fails, there could be quite a bit of pressure on Ottawa, and this could show itself on the field. Specifically, it could lead to Ottawa going up early, only to get beat.

But first it’s up to Calgary…

A few things I didn't get into here, at least yet, one of which is the effect of having two games with roughly the same point spread being offered. This is by design and the inevitable uncertainty of the first game can contribute to an Over play...

The game is currently tied 16-16 in the third period. The result is full uncertainty at this point and is what I meant when I posted that above.

It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.

[KVB]

...If Calgary fails, there could be quite a bit of pressure on Ottawa, and this could show itself on the field. Specifically, it could lead to Ottawa going up early, only to get beat....

I've reacted to the first game tonight by picking up Edmonton Eskimos -158 over the Ottawa Redblacks.
I think the pressures will be too much for Ottawa to handle.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Remember, for proper money management always bet the same amount each time.

Today, I’ve made two wagers, betting one unit on each play. That’s 1 unit to win .97 units on the Total and 1 unit to win .63 units.

I’ve posted over and over that if you change your risk amount, you change your breakeven point, and usually not for the better. In today’s case, betting “to win” a unit would have me risk 1.03 units and 1.58 units respectively.

That’s tough to justify. If one play was 50% better than another play, and warranted 50% more risk, then there would be no need to make the other play.

Let the books deal with fluctuating risk by keeping your bets the same.

[KVB]

...If Calgary fails, there could be quite a bit of pressure on Ottawa, and this could show itself on the field. Specifically, it could lead to Ottawa going up early, only to get beat.

The game is currently tied 16-16 in the third period. The result is full uncertainty at this point and is what I meant when I posted that above.

It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it...

This game even hit 23-23 late in the fourth.


Ottawa could be in real trouble here, and may not lead early after all.

[KVB]

Ottawa takes a 3 point lead, they've sealed their fate.

[KVB]

Ottawa up 9-0 with just over 2 minutes left in the half, they trail 17-9 at halftime.



Things worked out as expected to such a degree that I may be looking smarter than I am. Hamilton had better hold on...lol.

That extra touchdown once again prevents us from the second half bet, the expected Edmonton comeback already came, they're covering the spread now. See what happened there? A whole group of sharp analysts were salivating at the prospect of an Edmonton second half bet, just waiting to see the line, but alas, they'll never get that play because of the very final play of the half.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

One of many things I didn't address was Pinny's handling of the 3 point line and it's pricing before the game began.

If this is going to be a true "it's not what they bring, but how they bring it" learn while you earn in the thick of the battle type CFL thread, perhaps it should be open to other potential posters. I'm not sure how to stay low key yet walk through the season, telling the story.

I can already sense something special with CFL type thread this year, the question is how much detail to we get into. I don't want to repeat 2015 exactly, so readers may understand more if they've followed since then.

Let me know thoughts or questions.

[Jayvegas420]

Could you explain what you meant by Pinnacles handling of the 3 point line.

[KVB]

Could you explain what you meant by Pinnacles handling of the 3 point line.

The line opened Edmonton -6 and dropped to -3.5. Sure the numbers I posted provide some justification, but the bottom line is that there is pressure on Ottawa to win a game. Edmonton generates its own pressure, but let’s talk Ottawa pressures.

I said that if Calgary failed there would be addition pressure on Ottawa. After all my writing, and after the game began, I was looking for a place to land a thread when I saw a CFL thread in the sub forum. It’s an example of this point. With no explanation, there were two plays against the spread…Calgary and Ottawa. This matches my posted conclusions about where the public would be on the two pick. Whatever that poster’s methods were, they were in line with my placement. Now many, who had lost with Calgary, just might bet more on Ottawa…it’s the nature of unsophisticated betting and bettors.

The non-predictive public gauge represented the public being on Ottawa. The pressure to get a win because it is due isn’t a very sophisticated thinking process either, but it’s real in the marketplace.

That’s three points out of the unsophisticated side of the page that points to Ottawa.

It wasn’t until the upset result in the first game that we started to see some balance. Sharp analyst money came in on Edmonton as it was attempting to exploit the behavior of one favorite and one underdog in the marketplace…something we’ve gone through before.

Many books that even went to -3 (they were taking Ottawa money and getting even more at +3.5, so some held with the position) moved back to -3.5 under the late pressure. When pitting the public against the sharp analysts I’m talking about, the smarter group will push the line. And that’s what happened.

But Pinny skipped -3.5 and went to -3 for quite a while. When the favorite push came, Pinny adjusted to as far as -3 (-135) +3 (+120).

They were gladly taking public money on Ottawa, shot takers that have the favorite were could get some, and any arbers left could get a good Ottawa price.

Regardless of how the game turns out, this tells us a couple of things. First, even though the book makes money when upset moneylines pay (something I’ve explained before and can again if needed), a position was being taken on Ottawa. It also tells us that the type of money looking for the market balance is sharp on the favorite, and Pinny wanted to counter it with a number of techniques.

I don’t mind playing along with that sharp money. It knows what it is doing. Something we’ve seen before as well.

Some may interpret that +3 (+120) to mean Pinny seeks a profit with balanced money and an Ottawa win.

They just might, but the books know that some bettors understand their mechanics, and those bettors can be targets as well.

Somebody will get paid tonight, and we'll make a note of it, and move on from there.

[KVB]

So all that pressure on Ottawa to win failed as predicted, but it wasn’t so easy to ride the sharp analysts with a bet on the favorite.

The books took in quite a bit on those groups alone, and even frosted the cake with a +3(+120) payout, probably on that balanced action on the spread.

See how the books managed to get the best of so many groups tonight? This time we outsmarted all the players in the field, sharp and “square” alike.

Today was a good day.

[turtlejc]

Congrats on the win Jay.

How much did you have on this one a loonie?

A loonie he says

[Jayvegas420]

Not today turtle...

On the edge.

Barreled in over here.

[Jayvegas420]

Gimme a pick turtle....Im still barreled in over here, pal.