LOCK of the WEEK

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-05-17, 11:00 PM

Hey, Jay. I hear u.

Montreal is normally an Under team. Solid defense, w/ struggling offense.

But I don't like that play. I pass the total. I just don't see any line-value.

If u want some Wk03 plays, hit me up.

**Booya711** · 07-05-17, 11:01 PM

If seaweed likes the under then you know it's going over...common jay you know this

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-05-17, 11:02 PM

Jay:

See if this prickball + his Hawaiian friend show up w/ a Week03 preview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMN3hxDjtno

**Jayvegas420** · 07-05-17, 11:31 PM

I don't know Chucky, I think Ian & Andrew are due, like a Choose Your Own Adventure library book!

They usually stay away from the totals & take the favorites, which have been hitting at a 0% rate!

**Jayvegas420** · 07-05-17, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by Booya711

If seaweed likes the under then you know it's going over...common jay you know this

I'm being told this is an Angelito pick.

**Booya711** · 07-05-17, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

I'm being told this is an Angelito pick.

Oh fukk...that bullshit did run rampant

**Jayvegas420** · 07-05-17, 11:44 PM

After KVB weighs in, I'll decide whether this is a 15u pick or a 45u pick!

Might be back in Vegas sooner than planned.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-06-17, 01:22 AM

Jay...how TF are u generating selections?

**jjgold** · 07-06-17, 05:10 AM

Do not know much about CFL

Jay seems very confident here

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-06-17, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Do not know much about CFL

Jay seems very confident here

Useless post #253,285 from JJ.

**RudyRuetigger** · 07-06-17, 07:50 AM

good job in poker last night pal

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Jay...how TF are u generating selections?

This is a bet based on their meeting over the past two seasons. Both teams are slightly different but the core is the about the same.
BC-3 is a hunch that favorites will bounce back and start covering this week.

I think the books are getting tired of paying the dogs on the points this season.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

good job in poker last night pal

Thanks Rudy. Well have some major points riding on this under now

**biggie12** · 07-06-17, 12:50 PM

Cfl is a joke

**Otters27** · 07-06-17, 05:05 PM

Good luc. I'd tail but cannot gamble til tomorrow

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 05:16 PM

Today is the last day Otters?!
Well done!
She'll be back putting in bets for you before you know it.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 05:19 PM

Line has moved to 50.5, the public has spoken.
I guess this is already a loser.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

Cfl is a joke

I thought Biggie would love the CFL, he can bet on every Canadian team and always come out a winner!

**BrickJames** · 07-06-17, 05:32 PM

Thanks Jay I'm on the over at 50.5

**biggie12** · 07-06-17, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

I thought Biggie would love the CFL, he can bet on every Canadian team and always come out a winner!

The only thing good about the CFL was listening to the drunk fukks scream ARRRRGOOOSS as they walked back from the skywalk when the games were played at skydome.

I have never really tried to make money in this market before. I hate Everything about the cfl.

**KVB** · 07-06-17, 06:11 PM

It’s only week three and the markets haven’t matured yet but I can weigh in a bit here. In the past I’ve only given the sharp forecast for the CFL and talked about other forecasts relative to the sharp one. That sharp forecast is dynamic and hasn’t hit below 60% for a season yet…real talk.

But we need at least four games to get that forecast refined, something that is true for most sports.

I can make a non-predictive public gauge that gives us a 24-20 BC win. The sharpest forecast I can make that basically stacks percentages gives us a 27-22 BC victory.

I agree with Chucky that there is little value in the total based on that stacking forecast.

I think this will sideline those early bettors that are a bit more sophisticated in their decision making, leaving the OVER ripe to pay given last week’s Totals fiasco.

Jay, an Under tonight would stretch the market more than I think it wants to stretch and am not surprised that the line has crept upward as analysts seek some of that settlement from last week.

As far as BC -3, I am one of those that agreed with BC -2.5 from a long term perspective for early season, but -3 is not a bet and will probably end up being a push here.

No bet at -3 and a pass or the Over for tonight is what many analysts will seek, but the bet size and money isn’t that great and confidence only so high.

As far as upsets and favorites, it’s worth noting that the early line in BC vs. Toronto last Friday had BC favored. As far as opening lines are concerned (and they are important) this has been the only favorite that has covered.

Some bettors had Winnipeg -1 last week, but that line opened a pick and closed with Saskatch -1.5.

Well Jay, this thread may have triggered the motivation for another CFL thread, perhaps this will be it.

Good Luck tonight.

**KVB** · 07-06-17, 06:27 PM

Oh, and be careful with the moneyline on the favorite, it's not that good of a bet.

Originally posted by KVB

There's going to be a favorite this week, but not so sure it comes tonight. I can see money being steered toward the favorite, never a good sign when there's already a market appetite for the favorite...

**LT Profits** · 07-06-17, 06:39 PM

If BC covers, they would be the first favorite to cover in CFL this season.

**KVB** · 07-06-17, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

If BC covers, they would be the first favorite to cover in CFL this season.

This is only true for the closing lines.

Pre game favorite tickets have cashed this season...

Originally posted by KVB

...As far as upsets and favorites, it’s worth noting that the early line in BC vs. Toronto last Friday had BC favored. As far as opening lines are concerned (and they are important) this has been the only favorite that has covered.

Some bettors had Winnipeg -1 last week, but that line opened a pick and closed with Saskatch -1.5...

**LT Profits** · 07-06-17, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by KVB

This is only true for the closing lines.

Pre game favorite tickets have cashed this season...

True but still goes to show how dogs have dominated CFL just as they have for many years.

**KVB** · 07-06-17, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

True but still goes to show how dogs have dominated CFL just as they have for many years.

It's just crazy how the early season puts out so many dogs, year after year. The end of the season tends to get streaks of favorites, especially as the playoff picture develops.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 08:13 PM

Yup, I noticed the closing line in that game too.
This looks like the under we hoped for.

**jjgold** · 07-06-17, 09:43 PM

Jay you must've had inside info

**KVB** · 07-06-17, 09:51 PM

Nice one Jay, that's what it's all about.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 07-06-17, 10:21 PM

Nice winner, J. EZ like Sunday-morning.

**Otters27** · 07-06-17, 11:03 PM

Nice call. Really wanted to bet that.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Nice winner, J. EZ like Sunday-morning.

They're never easy but this was never in doubt from kick off.
I guess the late money wasn't right after all!

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Jay you must've had inside info

Canada is a pretty small city JJ.
Word gets around.

**Jayvegas420** · 07-06-17, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by Otters27

Nice call. Really wanted to bet that.

It's midnight Otters, get gambling!