[TiredPro]

I've been debating this for years with several friends how exactly the opening line is set for all games on the rotation. Would welcome your opinions. Our debate always seems to circle around whether or not there is any human element in setting the opening lines or is it all done through stats ?

[Big Bear]

[TiredPro]

So tell me how it's set big bear.......in your opinion.

[Big Bear]

okay so yeah ultimately there is a human element involved. Usually its 1 or 2 very experienced guys and most of the sports books do not set their own lines they simply follow other books and then adjust accordingly to how the money comes in.

Basically I am sure you have heard before but the books would like to set up a line where they think they will get people willing to bet on both teams.

Take for example last night.. Duke was -17 as the opener against Virginia Tech.

If people did not know what the line is they would all pretty much be chomping at the bit to bet on Duke.

However when you go to your sportsbook and you see that Duke is laying -17 the first reaction I had and I'm sure many others had is


HOLY COW THATS A TON OF POINTS!!!!!!! and that immediately makes you pause and consider Virginia Tech which normally would never happen if you had to just pick a winner.

[Big Bear]

But to answer your question i do not think there is a definitive answer.

I think in most cases the books want equal action. And you and I both could make lines all day long that would get equal action .. this is not hard.

I can almost always guess a line before it comes out. But does that translate to winners? no, not necessarily.


IN SOME CASES and very few cases i think the lines maker feels so strongly about a play and he thinks he knows something that the majority of the betting world does not know and he will set a line knowing that the line will not get equal action.

This is where gambling comes in to play for the odds maker and sportsbooks. (YES THEY GAMBLE TOO)

however they don't make a habit of it. And there is no reason for them to. But see all this stuff will mind fukk you... if you let it.

My advice to you and anyone else is to study games on a schedule and no matter what do not look at the lines until you have done your homework.. DO NOT NO MATTER WHAT.. this will subliminally influence your judgement.

Decide what you like before you look at the lines. Then come up with your own liine. And then make your bets based on if your line differs from the line Vegas is offering.

This is especially true for baseball. Check out the games ...pick who you like and then be prepared to make your bets "if the line falls within a certain number"

i can't tell you how many times i have seen a line on a game and i'm like wtf why is this shitty pitcher only +105 at home?

and that will cause you to start second guessing yourself which is what i call being "mind fukked"

[boomer62]

Bear you got smart all of a sudden! All true but the starting point is based on power ratings and a few points for home team advantage and then adjusted accordingly for the vig.

[TiredPro]

Thanks bear.