BOOOOO
was hoping for a cubs win
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03-30-19 01:22 PM #79451
Last edited by turtledoves; 03-31-19 at 09:44 PM.
Points Awarded:
KVB gave turtledoves 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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03-30-19 01:32 PM #79452
Texas ML not a bad play too Doves, but just outside the target for now.
On mobile, but how can the MLB Contrarian Fund make an early play if it needs certain thresholds of that market info like volume or percentages?
The line was off and it was evident that it would get hit, creating an anticipated discrepancy conducive to the Fund. Predicting the market here because I was confident the line would move.
The ATL/PHI OVER I was buying at 8.5 and 9 is now 9.5.
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03-30-19 01:38 PM #79453
MLB Contrarian Fund...
905 ATL +131 over PHI
921 DET +117 over TOR
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03-30-19 01:47 PM #79454
On the UNDER 142 For tomorrow’s AUB/KY matchup.
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03-30-19 01:54 PM #79455
Buying Duke moneyline as well, injury to Ward will move that line to 2.5, and raise the ML.
Injury is a worry so I need another hedge to my MICH ST future.
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03-30-19 04:18 PM #79456
Contrarian Fund picked up...
924 TB +108 over HOU
Good Luck
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03-30-19 07:38 PM #79457
not to worry KVB...Sparty will be just fine without Ward...they go 8 deep and did OK without Ward in Big-10 play for the games that he missed with his hand injury...it's like they didn't miss a beat except for that rough stretch where they inexplicably lost 3 in a row to inferior teams...but I think Izzo will have his boys ready to play and give DOOK all they can handle...
Originally Posted by KVB
Buying Duke moneyline as well, injury to Ward will move that line to 2.5, and raise the ML.
Injury is a worry so I need another hedge to my MICH ST future.
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03-30-19 11:42 PM #79458
Originally Posted by turtledoves
tailed, lets get it
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03-30-19 11:45 PM #79459
Let's go Mich St!!!! Originally Posted by Da Manster!
not to worry KVB...Sparty will be just fine without Ward...they go 8 deep and did OK without Ward in Big-10 play for the games that he missed with his hand injury...it's like they didn't miss a beat except for that rough stretch where they inexplicably lost 3 in a row to inferior teams...but I think Izzo will have his boys ready to play and give DOOK all they can handle...
In this world of give and take, I wouldn't be surprised to see the team that lost as a #2 to a #15 a couple of years ago end up facing the team that lost to a 16 for the first time.
If so, I still like Mich St to win it.
Points Awarded:
Da Manster! gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Da Manster!
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03-31-19 12:11 AM #79460
The KVB MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund...
901 30-Mar NYM/WAS OVER 7.5 (-104) 0.96 905 ATL +131 -1 905 ATL/PHI OVER 9 (+105) 1.05 915 BAL +306 3.06 921 DET +117 -1 924 TB +108 1.08 Sat 4.15 Thu -1.23 Fri -0.42 Total 2.5
The MLB Contrarian Runline Fund...
930 30-Mar TEX +1.5 (-115) 0.87 Sat 0.87 Fri 0.74 Total 1.61
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03-31-19 11:10 AM #79461
The KVB MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund has picked up...
965 31-Mar BAL +272 967 DET +148 970 TB +104 972 MIN -101
Good Luck.
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03-31-19 11:49 AM #79462
The scouting pics came back from one of the Chilean Beach Handball squads...
Just sayin'.
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03-31-19 11:51 AM #79463
Don't worry Cashflow, everything will be fine.
Yyou'll just have to be a little more careful once you get older....
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03-31-19 01:22 PM #79464
The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...
959 31-Mar ARI +190
Good price here.
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03-31-19 05:23 PM #79465
Oh shit, Early Season Contrarian Fund on Fire Alert...
901 30-Mar NYM/WAS OVER 7.5 (-104) 0.96 905 ATL +131 -1 905 ATL/PHI OVER 9 (+105) 1.05 915 BAL +306 3.06 921 DET +117 -1 924 TB +108 1.08 Sat 4.15 Thu -1.23 Fri -0.42 Total 2.5 959 31-Mar ARI +190 965 BAL +272 967 DET +148 1.48 970 TB +104 1.04 972 MIN -101 0.99
Zona and Balty both in the lead.
Three winners in today...
Two to go...
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03-31-19 05:38 PM #79466
Added the night game to the MLB Contrarian Fund...
963 31-Mar ATL +135
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03-31-19 06:59 PM #79467
nice hit bro. lost 99% of my roll on opening day, only won a few peanuts Originally Posted by KVB
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03-31-19 09:33 PM #79468
can one predict betting volume/% before the "numbers" even come in
maybe one can predict when members of the bullpen will rest to sharpen the model?
maybe i can change the weight or favor certain models based on starting pitcher profile?
gonna be quite the tentation
i have dayNight boolean values for each game
need to get into the graphs
https://matplotlib.org/gallery/index.htmlLast edited by turtledoves; 03-31-19 at 09:41 PM.
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03-31-19 10:07 PM #79469
Of course, but I suppose it's all relative. Trying to make it not relative, with a standard scale, but really it's all relative to that day, time of season, etc. Originally Posted by turtledoves
can one predict betting volume before the "numbers" even come in
What do you think had more volume? Mich St vs Duke, or Auburn vs. Kentucky?
It's actually pretty close.
Who do you think had more volume in MLB...PIT vs. CINCY or the night game with ATL/PHI.
That's not fair, the night game is almost always going to have more.
So much of that lends to players betting all day, reactions, and those bad behaviors like bettors betting more either because they won or because they are doubling up to get even.
Believe me, for the first weekend of MLB, with the performance of the contrarian market on Sunday (the Fund), I didn't think Zona would win the game. The price was good, but let's face it...if I had a parlay with Zona at the end, you know it would fail. If take today's winnings, thinking it's all figure out, and double up on Zona, you know it would fail. The market exploits those bad behaviors all the time.
Back to volume though, the markets are swelled in general because of opening weekend and March Madness.
It's no wonder the Contrarian Fund did so well on Saturday and Sunday.
Good to be ahead early but there will be variance. Remember last year? The Fund was up 12 units and went 0-6 one Saturday and 0-5 the very next Sunday. A big public weekend can hurt the contrarian fund, but in the long term we get the best of it.
Back to volume, I think it is becoming very important when reading the markets.
I could give a rating of each game's volume, based on my information, but it should also reflect the broader picture of volume from day to day.
But that's after the fact. When taking volume into account I am essentially predicting the relative volume because I need to get down before the line moves. The final volume info I get comes after the close.
So we see volume at work early and then see what are going to be the big games.
During the day, when capping this contrarian style, I am often calculating the relative volume. I say relative because sometimes the criteria is simply the current volume relative to the avg volume of all the games in the league.
This ratio can set itself early and not really waiver by the days end. Games above the average by certain thresholds can be targeted.
The highest volume game, the night game, gets a 10.7 rating tonight. Only one other matchup today broke 10...NYM/WAS was a 10.2.
Only two other games in the 8's everyone else below. You could probably guess, those two games were the Yankees and the Cubs.
Bettors like certain teams.
So in sense, we can predict betting volume. After all, if the Yankees faced the Cubs on a Sunday night, you can bet your ass it will be one high volume game.
Boston, and St. Louis have been drawing bets too.
I'll aggregate some numbers but I can say this...the highest volume game this weekend was opening day BOS/SEA.
I have that rated 12.4 and the overwhelming amount of bets and money was on Boston, some of the most lopsided of the season so far.
It's no surprise Seattle won. A lot of bettors were buried for sure.
The Contrarian Fund was not on that game, regrettably, but the fact the we can barely cap the games from a performance standpoint left a hole in the capping that kept me off.
Says the guy who bet 7 games opening day and 22 Total the opening weekend.
Points Awarded:
turtledoves gave KVB 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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03-31-19 10:16 PM #79470
I have some Total data that seem to be defying the give and take markets. Not sure if I should post it or email.
The research was spawned from a guy posting abut the Yankees totals in the thread that says to fade Baltimore every game.
Funny thread, that one. I made the case about how profitable it was to fade Balty on both the ML and RL and then it could still be profitable this year, then went on to buy Balty Sat and Sun.
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03-31-19 10:17 PM #79471
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03-31-19 10:19 PM #79472
thanks for the post dog
https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1...54795379310593Points Awarded:
KVB gave turtledoves 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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03-31-19 10:21 PM #79473
don't hit send is always the best advice
maybe balti was just a coincidence
maybe it was a calculated post
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03-31-19 10:28 PM #79474
Balty this weekend was yet another example of the give and take market. I've probably posted a half a dozen times how Balty was -50 units last year.
Opening weekend was no coincidence.
My guess is they will still be profitable to fade this year and this weekend will weed out the bettors who show patience and discipline to that fade process while slapping the greedy bettors that thought they had it figured out.
There are no coincidences, and when we see one, we're usually just looking at it wrong.
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03-31-19 10:34 PM #79475
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03-31-19 10:41 PM #79476
I said ATL/PHI was 10.7 but PIT/CIN was a 5.3. Originally Posted by KVB
On the same scale, so that we can compare total volume relative to all the betting in the major markets, MICH ST/DUKE is a 42.3 while AUB/KY was 40.1.
Those are football numbers and then some. March madness is huge.
On the same scale, the BOS/DET NHL match was 2.7 and was the highest of the NHL games.
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03-31-19 10:47 PM #79477
The MLB Early Season Contrarian Fund...
31-Mar ARI +190 -1 ATL +135 -1 BAL +272 2.72 DET +148 1.48 TB +104 1.04 MIN -101 0.99 Sun 4.23 Thu -1.23 Fri -0.42 Sat 4.15 Total 6.73
In 2017, the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund was up +8 units in the last week of May. It was down -24 units the first week of July and -23 units the first week of August.
It was +16 units on Nov. 1st.
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04-01-19 12:59 AM #79478
Bobby turned up in the Blue Note Jazz Club.
Often he can get drowned out with the rest of the band, this gives a chance to hear him work.
1:43:00 is a song call New Speedway Boogie...Bobby having fun there...
Originally Posted by KVB
Points Awarded:
PittsburghPlayer gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
PittsburghPlayer gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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04-01-19 01:08 AM #79479
It's almost the 1st...
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04-01-19 01:09 AM #79480
Points Awarded:
PittsburghPlayer gave KVB 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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04-01-19 05:33 AM #79481
smoked up and will give it a listen Originally Posted by KVB
if worth my while I will give to you one point
if it exceeds my expectations I will give 2
and then 2 more tomorrow
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04-01-19 09:18 AM #79482
interesting stuff
kvb in the big leagues again
Points Awarded:
KVB gave turtledoves 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
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04-01-19 10:24 AM #79483
Reported for corniness/stupidity Originally Posted by PittsburghPlayer
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04-01-19 11:06 AM #79484
Originally Posted by PittsburghPlayer
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04-01-19 02:05 PM #79485
MLB Contrarian Fund picked up...
913 1-Apr CHW +137
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