[smokenjoke]

dbacks good price

Against MaEDa
Corbin Best ML BET.
1 B L88NZ one
Nice calll & fckz I berry
mush.

[KVB]

NBA Playoffs

The sharp forecast says there is a 108-108 tie between Indiana and Cleveland today with Indiana getting a slight edge in the raw score moneyline. The public gauge says Cleveland wins 107-105.

The public clearly behind Cleveland but I say otherwise and am taking the upset here as well as the points. I have Indiana Pacers +9 (-105), +9 (-108) and +420 over Cleveland Cavaliers.

There are three bets there as I took +9 in two different houses of “trading” trading accounts.

I am also with the forecast long term with the +9.

Not much of a write up here. It’s the first game of the playoffs and I have strong market metrics for an upset. “On the other hand,” the forecast says it as well. As the first game, money is going to fall and begin to flow in one direction or the other but I can say that groups are really stacked on each side and it really is a “big start” for the markets.

I will fire away live with Cleveland as an underdog should the right price opportunity develop. There is plenty of reason to be suspicious with such a generous Indiana offering. But when it’s all said and done, sharp plays are made by numbers, not suspicions and feelings, even if it is the trading account.

[KVB]

talked to my buddy who witnessed the event. he was too cowardly to sneak down. i got up high and grabbed the ball. everyone was going for it, people behind me, people next to me. didn't even realize. it was just me and the ball. so proud. a non-sports fan like you wouldn't understand

realized a few years back if a ball is within 10 feet you need to make a play after witnessing a buddy almost get a foul ball. horizontal, reach up or down, whatever it takes. that's the mentality you have to have. been waiting all my life for a game ball

There's just one thing to say to this...

[KVB]

NBA Playoffs

The sharp forecast says there is a 108-108 tie between Indiana and Cleveland today with Indiana getting a slight edge in the raw score moneyline. The public gauge says Cleveland wins 107-105...

This is a mistake, the public gauge says Cleveland wins 112-105.

I think I was thinking the 7 point win when I typed 107.

[KVB]

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Toronto beats Milwaukee 110-89. The public gauge has Toronto winning 105-98.

I’ll try to get forecasts for every NBA playoff game out in the thread and we’ll track them. I may not write each game up like the college ones, or I might, I’m not sure. I’ve taken a “little time off” and have some catching up to do, seems like it’s always catching up.

Anyway, it’s still early in the playoffs and we’ve all seen some crazy things over the years. One year, there were a couple of weeks of favorites covering, with no dogs, let alone upsets. It was one hell of a market shake out. Imagine from a numbers perspective what was happening.

One thing I can tell you, the NBA will provide its shakeouts; whether in moneylines, spreads, totals, or a couple of each.

I’ll try to walk us through it, losing money or winning…lol.

Toronto looks dangerous this playoffs and numbers showing it here. Both lines in these games so far opening far close to the public gauge than the forecast. With such agreement on the monyeline and some bait offered in the first game, an upset could easily come. Toronto will do well this year, but they won’t win every game. A loss early could shake bettor confidence as they go on to advance a couple of rounds.

I can’t stress, from a market perspective, just how early it is in the NBA playoffs. So that said, I’m passing on any trades here with, or against, the forecast.

[PerfectGrape]

preds again?

[KVB]

I have Nashville winning by 2 goals tonight.

Good call on Thursday, it's going to be a tough going at that well again tonight.

[KVB]

NBA Playoffs

The sharp forecast says there is a 108-108 tie between Indiana and Cleveland today with Indiana getting a slight edge in the raw score moneyline...

That game ended 109-108.

Remember, this forecast is similar to the stacking percentages forecast in football.

Remember how it did on the FIRST game of the NFL playoffs? It called the score exactly.

Here we go again.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has San Antonio beating Memphis 100-93. The public gauge says SA wins 100-92.

For all the games, as far as why the line opened where it has and moved to where it closes, I’ll get into more as the playoffs develop. This game has little spread movement and all the games so far have had a higher Total open which has dropped by the close.

This game shows a tighter, seemingly more efficient market in both the spread and Totals.

No trades here on the spread as there isn’t much to warrant pressing the underdog forecast prediction and even less to counter it.

Mind that stacking forecast, it may do well to finish out today. Memphis may even win the game and I have sought the value with Memphis Grizzlies +435 over San Antonio Spurs.

Good Luck

[KVB]

...Toronto looks dangerous this playoffs and numbers showing it here. Both lines in these games so far opening far close to the public gauge than the forecast. With such agreement on the monyeline and some bait offered in the first game, an upset could easily come. Toronto will do well this year, but they won’t win every game. A loss early could shake bettor confidence as they go on to advance a couple of rounds...

It looks like the Toronto moneyline will fail here as they lose by 15-20 points.

This might be the best thing to happen to Toronto this playoffs.

[KVB]

I need to post the final college hoops numbers for the thread as well as talk about the golf fiasco of me not posting pairs the last couple of weeks. I failed the thread with that one by not posting or betting golf during the NCAAB Tourney.

[KVB]

I went ahead with Memphis +9.5 (-105) over San Antonio.

The spread and price makes this play the play.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

It looks like the Toronto moneyline will fail here as they lose by 15-20 points.

This might be the best thing to happen to Toronto this playoffs...

This ended up being a 14 point game. There is a difference.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says LA Clippers beat Utah 109-96. The pubic gauge has the Clippers winning 103-98.

I have no reason to counter the forecast here and have a long term play on the Clippers.

I think the game started a few minutes ago and this is a late post.

[KVB]

I have stuffed everywhere I can with Clippers to win at everything from -264 to -278.

The fukkin Clippers better win this shit as I am pretty exposed.

[chopperocker]

Clipp Joint ml cuz we up 4units on the day so fukk it

[KVB]

I have stuffed everywhere I can with Clippers to win at everything from -264 to -278.

The fukkin Clippers better win this shit as I am pretty exposed.

[KVB]

Not a real good day to post throughout and no real time now to go into openings and movements but it's a long playoffs and there should be plenty to post about going forward.

First two games...

Sharp forecast:

Washington 110, Atlanta 103
Golden State 115, Portland 98

Non Predictive Public Gauge:

Wash wins 109-103
GS wins 118-105

Can't write anymore now, these are the numbers.

[KVB]

Clipp Joint ml cuz we up 4units on the day so fukk it...

Here in FlyMe we like to enjoy champagne when we find ourselves together in the loser's circle.

Cheers!

[DwightShrute]

[KVB]

[KVB]

NBA

Sharp forecast:

Chicago 105, Boston 105…A tie with Boston holding a very small moneyline edge. This edge is as small as my calculations will go, so it’s really no moneyline edge at all…lol.

Houston 113, OKC 111

Non Predictive Public Gauge:

Boston wins 107-101

Houston wins 117-110

[KVB]

The sharp forecast says Indiana beats Cleveland 109-103. The public gauge has Cleveland winning 111-105.

Notice the wide gap and split. The Cleveland line is not the product of an efficient market based on “sharp” action. At least not as far as the leading market movers of the day are concerned. By day I mean era, current major market movers and hot large touts or syndicates. The market moving flavor of the month or season will eventually evolve out of favor when the bet size swallows itself and drowns out the fleeting edge it once had.

The sharp forecast has San Antonio beating Memphis 101-92. The public gauge says SA wins 101-91.

This synchronization, along with other metrics, gives Memphis a fighting chance to get that upset in game two. Not only does this seem too easy, but the numbers don’t give us a bet here; at least not yet.

I may not be able to respond to the markets tonight, have somethings to do. First of all, I need to get a new battery for the car. I can’t remember replacing it and it’s been a few years, I think it finally died.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Meanwhile in Bitchslapistan...

[PerfectGrape]

not sure if i can post later tonight guys, need to replace my cabin filter

[omedo]

Notice the wide gap and split. The Cleveland line is not the product of an efficient market based on “sharp” action. At least not as far as the leading market movers of the day are concerned. By day I mean era, current major market movers and hot large touts or syndicates. The market moving flavor of the month or season will eventually evolve out of favor when the bet size swallows itself and drowns out the fleeting edge it once had.

this is regarding all in plays or trend followers?

[DiggityDaggityDo]

not sure if i can post later tonight guys, need to replace my cabin filter

Grape, the cabin filter can wait until tomorrow.

You need to post tonight.

[PerfectGrape]

preds

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

won a 175 point trivia before by answering how many months Mike Vick did for dog fighting charges

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Da Manster!]

[Fidel_CashFlow]