Originally Posted by
KVB
Ignore the charts and the 15 cents, that was an example we will get back to.
The leading square basically meant if the public comes in on the favorite, the book can raise the line, the public will just keep buying, no limit. If they like Dallas, or the Lakers, etc, they will buy.
They lead the market and the book can raise until the underdog price gets into range of the sharps, then the book starts to get balance and stops moving the line.
In this case, the public or square population moved the line, they led, but it was the sharps who trailed and stopped the movement. So now the underdog line, the one the sharps bought, becomes the "sharper" no vig line.
We estimated the no vig based on the book's line, but after that kind of movement, a more efficient or sharper no vig line is found. Not the no vig calculation we come up with at the new line.
The other way is when sharps buy the favorite until it gets too pricey, that favorite line...where the book stopped moving and sharps became undecided, is a sharp leading line and a better or sharper no vig line then the estimate from the books lines.
It depends on who is leading those initial buys.