[Das Jax]

All right golf guys, help me out here. I got a little greedy and ended up betting a total of just under ten units that neither Rory or Mickelson would end up winning the PGA tour at -119. That was last night. After today's round, with Rory putting some decent distance (a stroke or two) between him and the majority of the competition, not to mention Mickelson's steady climb up through the ranks... I'm feeling pretty nervous. At present, I can get Rory to ein at -115. Do you think I should hedge? Golf is far from my best sport and I'm really just not feeling that confident in my judgement on this. My gut says he cracks tomorrow, but with ten units on the line I'm feeling more exposed than I'd like to be at this point in the game. What do you think... should I cut my losses?

[NunyaBidness]

The correct way to look at is, your original bet is a sunk cost and doesn't matter anymore. Is there value in the current line, if so, take it, if there's not, don't.

If you just want to hedge because you're uncomfortable with your bet, you made a mistake earlier.

I'm in the same boat, I've got a lot of money on Rory to not win at -590, and even more on him to not win at -135. I think he's probably going to pull it off now, but these majors courses are difficult to come up with estimates on, as they are played so rarely.

So, I guess the bottom line is, hedging may or may not be the right thing for you at this point; but you should think about why you're doing it and use it to guide your betting in the future.

(And look forward to next week where you're probably going to get to fade him at -400 instead if he wins.)

[NunyaBidness]

1202 Any other result +115*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> R.McIlroy HT / R.McIlroy FT

[Das Jax]

Oh I definitely made a mistake earlier. That much is undeniable. 10 units for me represents 10% of my bankroll as well as the ceiling in terms of personal restrictions for any one play. I don't regret the play... just the size of the bet. I ended up pussing out and dropped 6 units to win 5 on Rory. If he wins, I'm now out 5 units instead of 10 and if he loses I win 2ish units instead of 8ish. So, not ideal, but I'd rather pay for my lesson in change than paper bills. Anyway, thanks for the advice.

[Das Jax]

To further muddy the water, I also just put a half unit on Weisberger at +1375. I don't care if he's not a household name, for a guy who's sitting one stroke back after 3 days of golf that line is chock full of value. And speaking of value, this is the best line out there in my eyes:

Mclroy/Fowler/Wiesberger wins PGA Champ -353

One of these guys might drop off, but not all three. Put another 6 units on that.

Edit: I just talked myself into going another full unit on Weisberger. Those odds are just too good to ignore.

[NunyaBidness]

To further muddy the water, I also just put a half unit on Weisberger at +1375. I don't care if he's not a household name, for a guy who's sitting one stroke back after 3 days of golf that line is chock full of value.
Edit: I just talked myself into going another full unit on Weisberger. Those odds are just too good to ignore.

I thought about taking it last night at +1400. Gotta watch out for Rickie Fowler, he's got the best shot outside of Mcilroy. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Fowler/McIlroy playoff.

[Das Jax]

I thought about taking it last night at +1400. Gotta watch out for Rickie Fowler, he's got the best shot outside of Mcilroy. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Fowler/McIlroy playoff.

Exactly, which is why it makes sense to bet all three front runners at -353. Closest thing I've seen to a lock in some time.

[Das Jax]

Man, if Mickelson wins I am so screwed.

[MD]

Man, if Mickelson wins I am so screwed.

He probably found out that he's Nunya's #1 golf fade. Might start showing up just to spite you.

[JIBBBY]

You guys are on Golf plays too. Never bet golf in my life.. I'm reading....

[MD]

You guys are on Golf plays too. Never bet golf in my life.. I'm reading....

We bet hotdog contests, JIBBBY, we'll bet anything*. Seriously. Nunya and I have had a "who can go without wearing underwear the longest?" bet going for a good three years now.



















*except pre-season football, no sharps bet on that

[NunyaBidness]

You guys are on Golf plays too. Never bet golf in my life.. I'm reading....

Can I ban this guy from reading my thread? Hate to give him free money after he laughed at me for losing last night.

[MD]

Can I ban this guy from reading my thread? Hate to give him free money after he laughed at me for losing last night.

JIBBBY is an absolute master of provoking people. He's like the Anderson Silva of retardation; no matter who you are, he'll bait you into throwing a punch, then he'll start jibbbying all over the floor like he's having a seizure, and then you just look like an asshole. I was starting to feel bad because of his "helpless puppydog" routine, then he suddenly developed a c-nt reflex and I stopped feeling bad.

[NunyaBidness]

Yep, that's exactly where I am. I'd never jumped on him for all the retarded shit he says and then he grinds on me for missing a +200 bet by 10 seconds, while arguing that laying -950 in a sport he doesn't know the rules to is a good idea.

[Das Jax]

Do NOT penetrate me Mickelson. I am now officially... concerned. This shit is intense.

[JIBBBY]

Can I ban this guy from reading my thread? Hate to give him free money after he laughed at me for losing last night.

I didn't laugh at ya last night Nunya.. I actually felt bad for you because I know you were excited about that wild card grappling event, the value bets offered were just nuts!!!..You loaded up in hope of a really huge pay day I know.. I can't blame ya.. Like I said, I would have gotten wide eyed too and done the same plays if I had the gambling access...

I don't know how that is laughing at you?

For the record - I gotta come clean and say - I did raise an eyebrow when you posted up - "Jibby is like a beaten house wife that keeps coming back for more".. That tipped me off to say well atleast I didn't lose my arse tonight on these damn dream bets.. You started it... I finished it.

Your comment even made me quote my own wins on the WSOF thread which I never like to do!!! I don't like to brag.. I also don't like when you guys lose, not a hater...



I gotta call a spade a spade though Nunya, I think that 2500 stung a little more then you let on rich man...

Oh, I surely don't need your pics, posts or even this thread to win money in gambling. I do my own dirty work and do just fine.. I don't trail so much so don't worry..

Now get over this, don't cry me a river because you lost your bets last night and are now butt hurt because you think I said something that I shouldn't have.. That's not being cool pal... I'm sure you'll win that money back soon..

If you and MD can dish it out first in your posts you gotta be able to take it when it comes back at ya..

That's fair right?

[Mercersux]

JIBBBY is an absolute master of provoking people. He's like the Anderson Silva of retardation; no matter who you are, he'll bait you into throwing a punch, then he'll start jibbbying all over the floor like he's having a seizure, and then you just look like an asshole. I was starting to feel bad because of his "helpless puppydog" routine, then he suddenly developed a c-nt reflex and I stopped feeling bad.

This gave me a hardy laugh.

[MD]

I didn't laugh at ya last night Nunya.. I actually felt bad for you because I know you were excited about that wild card grappling event, the value bets offered were just nuts!!!..You loaded up in hope of a really huge pay day I know.. I can't blame ya.. Like I said, I would have gotten wide eyed too and done the same plays if I had the gambling access...

I don't know how that is laughing at you?

For the record - I gotta come clean and say - I did raise an eyebrow when you posted up - "Jibby is like a beaten house wife that keeps coming back for more".. That tipped me off to say well atleast I didn't lose my arse tonight on these damn dream bets.. You started it... I finished it.

Your comment even made me quote my own wins on the WSOF thread which I never like to do!!! I don't like to brag.. I also don't like when you guys lose, not a hater...



I gotta call a spade a spade though Nunya, I think that 2500 stung a little more then you let on rich man...

Oh, I surely don't need your pics, posts or even this thread to win money in gambling. I do my own dirty work and do just fine.. I don't trail so much so don't worry..

Now get over this, don't cry me a river because you lost your bets last night and are now butt hurt because you think I said something that I shouldn't have.. That's not being cool pal... I'm sure you'll win that money back soon..

If you and MD can dish it out first in your posts you gotta be able to take it when it comes back at ya..

That's fair right?

I didn't read all of your post, but I'll say this: don't take SBR so seriously. We act like dicks, but we don't wish you poorly. That is the best piece of advice that I can give you. Sometimes the best response to a verbal jab is to laugh and shake it off. I'm telling you this from experience. Nunya rags on me all the time, and a lot of the time I find it funny. Lighten up pal.

[MD]

This gave me a hardy laugh.

And, more importantly, baited you into posting. How've you been buddy?

[Mercersux]

And, more importantly, baited you into posting. How've you been buddy?

all good in the hood bro...you know how that life be...

[Das Jax]

I didn't read all of your post, but I'll say this: don't take SBR so seriously. We act like dicks, but we don't wish you poorly. That is the best piece of advice that I can give you. Sometimes the best response to a verbal jab is to laugh and shake it off. I'm telling you this from experience. Nunya rags on me all the time, and a lot of the time I find it funny. Lighten up pal.

I don't know man, I'm not sure you're really the one to give advice like that. Of all the random forum names that consistently appear on my monitor, I'd honestly say yours is the one I associate with "taking SBR seriously".

In other news, I've never been so excited to lose five units. Golf sucks.

[MD]

I don't know man, I'm not sure you're really the one to give advice like that. Of all the random forum names that consistently appear on my monitor, I'd honestly say yours is the one I associate with "taking SBR seriously".

Funnily, I have thought the same thing about you.

[MD]

all good in the hood bro...you know how that life be...

You liking much on the upcoming card pal?

[Vaughany]

Can I ban this guy from reading my thread? Hate to give him free money after he laughed at me for losing last night.

He tails (or trails) or your soccer plays tho brah!

[NunyaBidness]

If you have access to Bovada's square line set you should be taking Jacksonville +3.5 tonight.

[PunisherIND]

going for 5 wins. best i can find right now is dodgers -1. should i skip and try to catch the +1.5 lines for tomorrow?

[Beelzebubzy]

going for 5 wins. best i can find right now is dodgers -1. should i skip and try to catch the +1.5 lines for tomorrow?

skip. Its worth 33 bucks!!!

[NunyaBidness]

going for 5 wins. best i can find right now is dodgers -1. should i skip and try to catch the +1.5 lines for tomorrow?

Yeah, you're definitely going to find a better line than -121 later.

[NunyaBidness]

NFL Play of the day: Atlanta/Houston over 41 -105 Heritage

[NunyaBidness]

Bonus NFL Play of the Day: Colts +1.5 -110 Heritage

[NunyaBidness]

Bonus NFL Play of the Day: Colts +1.5 -110 Heritage

Squeak squeak.

[Bumdeal]

haha nice Nunya. I had Giants pk and thought I was completely screwed.

[NunyaBidness]

haha nice Nunya. I had Giants pk and thought I was completely screwed.

Sure looked that way, early!

[cheeese]

WNBA- NY Liberty -1 in the dimes contest. Indiana has locked in their seed for the playoffs and will be resting their players. Hope none of them are on the rag. Going for my 10.

[Vaughany]

Lol