[sweetjones55]

Hate to break your heart but any donkey can get lucky over 500 plays. What kind of a record did you have prior to this two year run? The fact that you're taking the money and going tout tells me you weren't a very good one and know you're on run you can't sustain.

Anybody can get lucky over 523 plays? Do you know anything about statistics?

The odds of hitting 60.5% over 523 plays by random luck is .0000000001% chance. You basically have a better chance of hitting the lottery.

[Extra Innings]

ok smart asses, answer me this.

Would you pay for a financial adviser who has a track record of 10% year over year returns?

How is this different?

[sweetjones55]

Hate to break your heart but any donkey can get lucky over 500 plays. What kind of a record did you have prior to this two year run? The fact that you're taking the money and going tout tells me you weren't a very good one and know you're on run you can't sustain.

I actually asked someone in my thread that was better than math than myself what the odds are of hitting 60.5% over 523 plays. Here was the response.

Practically impossible, without a huge repetition of the sampling. Using this site: http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx I plugged in 0.5305, which is what -113 odds represent (~53%), as the odds of hitting on a play, 523 trials, and 316 successes (rounded down). To have done equal or better than that percentage at ~53% probability per event would've been less than 1/10th of 1 percent. Enter the numbers yourself if you're further curious, and ask if you have any trouble understanding the results.

[pavyracer]

ok smart asses, answer me this.

Would you pay for a financial adviser who has a track record of 10% year over year returns?

How is this different?

How do you verify track records? This is for both financial advisors and touts. The reason people become financial advisors or touts is because they can't make any money risking their own money.

[sweetjones55]

How do you verify track records? This is for both financial advisors and touts. The reason people become financial advisors or touts is because they can't make any money risking their own money.

I posted every single play with a lengthy writeup on my thread in the NBA handicapping section. Record was updated daily. If you want you can sift through all 792 pages and come up with my record.

[Extra Innings]

How do you verify track records? This is for both financial advisors and touts. The reason people become financial advisors or touts is because they can't make any money risking their own money.

A lot of mutual fund managers need to keep records. In terms of sports betting, RAS is pretty transparent, sweetjones appears to have two threads outlining his accomplishments.

[SoV]

How do you verify track records? This is for both financial advisors and touts. The reason people become financial advisors or touts is because they can't make any money risking their own money.

Is this also why people become engineers because they can't fix their own shit?

[Extra Innings]

Is this also why people become engineers because they can't fix their own shit?

touche!

[sweetjones55]

A lot of mutual fund managers need to keep records. In terms of sports betting, RAS is pretty transparent, sweetjones appears to have two threads outlining his accomplishments.

I plan on following RAS in the way they track everything and keep their records/plays as transparent as possible.

[King Mayan]

Aren't you the same guy who said "SweetJones55 is a proven Winner"?

On the top-right corner of SJ55 website it will say:

"SweetJones55 is a proven winner"
- jjgold

[sweetjones55]

On the top-right corner of SJ55 website it will say: "SweetJones55 is a proven winner" - jjgold

Not a bad idea at all,

[ChileCheese]

I think SJ55 is a good capper no doubt. And I do no think his 60& win rate is a "fluke".
However, this is gambling, and this is sports. Law of averages always plays out because of variance. Simple as that.
Problem for SJ55 is that a 60% win rate is astronomical in betting circles and it will probably even out over the next year or two.
So we can assume he hits 50% next year, or over the course of 2 years, in which case his customers wont be too happy.

Lets all just pitch in 10 cents, pool our money, buy his picks, and post them daily so we can track them next year.

[SoV]

Seriously though, the comparison with a financial adviser is a bit daft. Unlike a tout, who will get paid a specific amount of money per play, financial advisers also get paid a certain %age of their client's profit, which could be anything from a few thousands to millions. Which is why you have financial advisers to assist you with your money. And it's not because they're bad at what they're doing.

Rather, the competition is such, if you're terrible at managing portfolios, then you wouldn't be earning anything.

[RudyRuetigger]

1. You could clearly tell this "person" was going tout by his bumping the players talk thread every time he won a game (which didn't contain actual picks, just the posts when he won)

2. You can also clearly tell this "person" has no clue on sports betting if he is thinking 55% is a "down year"

3. I lost a lot of respect for people in this thread for backing him (or anyone backing touts in general)

4. Simple math dumb f&#^#:

If this guy hits 60% over his next 523 plays using full Kelly he will be up $200,290,433.86 on average starting with a $1,000 bankroll.
Using half kelly it would be $687,608.36 (both on -110 odds).

Yea, he's really worried about that "free money".. that $50 per person sure goes a long way right?

Fact is anyone hitting numbers close to this wouldn't say a fukkin word to anyone about it...they'd have runners at every sports betting place in the world.



Only thing happening here is someone who doesn't have money management, is on a good roll, and trying to stick it to the ignorant posters here...like the rest of the touts.

[Extra Innings]

Seriously though, the comparison with a financial adviser is a bit daft. Unlike a tout, who will get paid a specific amount of money per play, financial advisers also get paid a certain %age of their client's profit, which could be anything from a few thousands to millions. Which is why you have financial advisers to assist you with your money. And it's not because they're bad at what they're doing.

Rather, the competition is such, if you're terrible at managing portfolios, then you wouldn't be earning anything.

What if SweetJones offered a guarantee. "Make a profit or your money back"

[opie1988]

I would like to go tout and sell inspirational & patriotic messages to some of our fine, younger posters here on SBR.

These are our best & brightest here at the chit-chat room....and for a nominal fee, I would provide them with quotes, humorous anecdotes, and overall highly-inspirational life lessons which could help them reach their potential as both SBR chit-chat posters as well as contributing men of the world!

Join with me in achieving your dreams. Don't miss out on this opportunity to be the elite chit-chat member you've always wanted to be!!

(Patriotic messages could be catered to our foreign posters country of choice for an additional charge)

[Rod1010]

1. You could clearly tell this "person" was going tout by his bumping the players talk thread every time he won a game (which didn't contain actual picks, just the posts when he won)

2. You can also clearly tell this "person" has no clue on sports betting if he is thinking 55% is a "down year"

3. I lost a lot of respect for people in this thread for backing him (or anyone backing touts in general)

4. Simple math dumb f&#^#:

If this guy hits 60% over his next 523 plays using full Kelly he will be up $200,290,433.86 on average starting with a $1,000 bankroll.
Using half kelly it would be $687,608.36 (both on -110 odds).

Yea, he's really worried about that "free money".. that $50 per person sure goes a long way right?

Fact is anyone hitting numbers close to this wouldn't say a fukkin word to anyone about it...they'd have runners at every sports betting place in the world.



Only thing happening here is someone who doesn't have money management, is on a good roll, and trying to stick it to the ignorant posters here...like the rest of the touts.

Well we need stupid in this world and stupid people buy picks... Smart people take advantage of them.

[sweetjones55]

1. You could clearly tell this "person" was going tout by his bumping the players talk thread every time he won a game (which didn't contain actual picks, just the posts when he won)
2. You can also clearly tell this "person" has no clue on sports betting if he is thinking 55% is a "down year"

1. I only kept bumping it because one poster said that I was going to go on a losing streak after I started the thread and it would be getting bumped and I would look dumb.

2. 55% is profitable and is good but for me it would be a down year because I have been hitting 60.5%. If I could hit 60.5% treating this as a hobby then hitting 5.5% worse with the extra time invested would be bad IMO.

[Extra Innings]

1. You could clearly tell this "person" was going tout by his bumping the players talk thread every time he won a game (which didn't contain actual picks, just the posts when he won)

2. You can also clearly tell this "person" has no clue on sports betting if he is thinking 55% is a "down year"

3. I lost a lot of respect for people in this thread for backing him (or anyone backing touts in general)

4. Simple math dumb f&#^#:

If this guy hits 60% over his next 523 plays using full Kelly he will be up $200,290,433.86 on average starting with a $1,000 bankroll.
Using half kelly it would be $687,608.36 (both on -110 odds).

Yea, he's really worried about that "free money".. that $50 per person sure goes a long way right?

Fact is anyone hitting numbers close to this wouldn't say a fukkin word to anyone about it...they'd have runners at every sports betting place in the world.



Only thing happening here is someone who doesn't have money management, is on a good roll, and trying to stick it to the ignorant posters here...like the rest of the touts.

Not intelligent enough to run the numbers (if true) but what you say makes sense (I'm at least that intelligent)

[SoV]

What if SweetJones offered a guarantee. "Make a profit or your money back"

Then I'd buy his picks

[BrigadierPudding]

Anybody can get lucky over 523 plays? Do you know anything about statistics?

The odds of hitting 60.5% over 523 plays by random luck is .0000000001% chance. You basically have a better chance of hitting the lottery.

500 plays is not a sufficient sample size. If you can't understand that I don't know what to tell you. Also, how many plays did you release where the number you got was nowhere to be found? Seemed to me this happened more often than not. eg, what were your %'s against the closing number?

I have nothing against you. Props to you for parlaying this run into a paying gig. But I have to agree with Rudy. Anyone that can hit close to these numbers wouldn't be whoring himself out on a message board and twitter. In the words of Thremp, they would be buying yachts.

[Extra Innings]

So if I sign up for SJ55 I will have 200 million dollars in two years

Where do I sign up?

[big0mar]

500 plays is nowhere near a large enough sample size. It would have to be ~10,000 plays before you could say it is a legitimate sample size.

[Kindred]

didn't SJ say he wasn't going tout every time somebody accused him of it

[RudyRuetigger]

This is another thing that pisses me off about SBR. Not only do they condone touts, they put them on SBR tv for people to watch. I realize SBR is a for profit business, but don't let the posters get scammed of their money.

What I used is just a very fukkin basic chart. I think on 2p2 I saw someone created a program where you could get diagrams, confidence intervals, etc etc... Mine took a whole 1minute to create (1 pick, 60% winrate = 14.55% ROI, 16% and 8% risked...repeated 523 times) but it still serves its purpose.


Here is an article on about.com. I hate to use something from Fezzik, but he reiterates the point:

While some bettors may scoff at the 56% figure used in as an example earlier, professional bettors will be the first to tell you there’s nothing wrong with that percentage at all. Such a percentage will lead to a nice profit over time.

Many bettors assume they are going to achieve the magical figure of 60% winners, if not higher, when heading into a new season. While such a percentage may be achieved over a short period of time, it’s nearly impossible to maintain over a long stretch.

Professional bettor Steve Fezzik describes the 60% fallacy in Larry Grossman’s book, You Can Bet on It Fezzik states if you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.

[sweetjones55]

[quote=BrigadierPudding;10412865] 500 plays is not a sufficient sample size. If you can't understand that I don't know what to tell you. Also, how many plays did you release where the number you got was nowhere to be found? quote]

There were 2-3 plays MAX where the line I got mattered this year.

[Kindred]

1. I only kept bumping it because one poster said that I was going to go on a losing streak after I started the thread and it would be getting bumped and I would look dumb.

2. 55% is profitable and is good but for me it would be a down year because I have been hitting 60.5%. If I could hit 60.5% treating this as a hobby then hitting 5.5% worse with the extra time invested would be bad IMO.

If you made more plays your winning % would drop, but your profit would go way up. Meaning if the only games you bet are ones that win 60% of the time you're passing on bets that still have an edge but only win 55% of the time. 60% is more profitable for selling picks to degens but if you had more bets that are +EV but win at a lower rate they will lower your win rate but increase your bankroll. I'm sure you know this and you probably bet more games than you release, you only release the big bets to pad your record to sell picks....

[iceminers26]

Fact is anyone hitting numbers close to this wouldn't say a fukkin word to anyone about it...they'd have runners at every sports betting place in the world.

I didn't read the opening 2 pages of thread but the topic pretty much says it all, SJ going to tout. I for one have no problem when a poster goes tout because 1. I never tail anyone's picks anyways and 2. they are within in their right to do what they want to do, its their life, if they want to be scum let them.

With that said, Rudy nailed this perfect with the quote above. If a guy is hitting at these numbers and had at least half a brain he would have things set up where he was maximizing his profits and could be set for life if he/she is careful about it. The problem is and I'm going out on a limb here and this is just my personal opinion, SJ doesn't have the bankroll to even profit in this high range, therefore he is trying to make some added income by going tout.

[sweetjones55]

Professional bettor Steve Fezzik describes the 60% fallacy in Larry Grossman’s book, You Can Bet on It Fezzik states if you begin with a $1,000 bankroll and wager 10% of your money on one game a day, while laying -110 odds, while maintaining a 60% winning ratio, after 2,000 wagers your initial $1,000 would be a cool $550 billion. Yes, billion. Something to remember the next time you see a sports tout claiming to hit 65% over the last 10 years.

Who in the world bets 10% on one game a day? If you go on a 0-5 run which EVERYONE will then you lose half your bankroll in less than a week. That's a surefire way to go broke with zero bankroll management.

[30K Millionaire]

SJ was moving lines at bookmaker shortly after he posted his picks. This was the reason you may get a line which was a 1/2 to full point off.

[jarvol]

5/26/11

I made $6,000 tonight. Touts probably go 2-3 months not making that. It makes no sense and I am not doing it.

Originally Posted by vyomguy odds on sj going tout next year

sj will go tout next year -99999
sj will not go tout next year +100000

Someone said this sameee exactttt thing last year after I hit 60% for the entire season. I was right back on SBR this year and did it again. It's not happening.

4/28/11

My resume? LOL. I am never going tout. I have said this countless times. I am making more money in one month doing my own plays than a tout would make in a good year. I despise the majority of touts and do not want to be associated with them just to make a few extra dollars, not worth my time with the hassle of clients.

4/25/11

Please no tout talk, it's not happening. I make more than enough on the games nowadays.

4/22/11

Please no talk about me going tout in my thread. It's not happening and it's getting so old already. I have been on here for two years straight, I'm going nowhere.

To all those yelling "tout". I posted my plays on SBR the past NBA season and hit 60.25%. Every single poster on here said, "he's gone after this season, absolutely no way he doesn't go tout." I got several offers and declined them all. I again started posting my plays on here ever day. About a month and half through the season I was hitting 64%. Everyone again said "he's gone by the playoffs". I still kept posting my plays.



I am not going tout, I bet large amounts on these games and there is no need whatsoever.

3/27/11

I could start betting on a 10-50 unit scale and make my record look insane but I'm no tout

3/26/11

You make no sense whatsoever ever. I don't run in circles or syndicates first off. I have two friends with a ton of money who love sports betting and follow me. Not posting my plays because two of my buddies bet big makes no sense.

I received many job offers from various tout sites to go tout this summer and declined all of them. I have now been posting my plays for two full years on SBR. If I was going to go tout, I would have gone tout this year after hitting over 60% last year for the full NBA season which no one did. Everyone has kept constantly saying I am going tout and yet I am still here every day posting my plays up.

12/16/10

I will not be going tout. You keep on talking about me doing that yet I am still here giving out winners with explanations for free every day. When will you get over this? If I was going to take the money, I would have already done so.

12/6/10

I am not going tout, I do this for free. And I have been doing this for free for 2 years now. I had various offers to go tout this summer and declined because I enjoy helping and teaching others how to win.

[RudyRuetigger]

Who in the world bets 10% on one game a day? If you go on a 0-5 run which EVERYONE will then you lose half your bankroll in less than a week. That's a surefire way to go broke with zero bankroll management.

well i could say money management/kelly criterion/maximum growth is not your strong suit, but in reality basic math isn't very high for you either.

[rfr3sh]

I dont see the need to go tout if you are making money with your picks

[pavyracer]

Is this also why people become engineers because they can't fix their own shit?

Most engineers don't buy touts picks because they are better than them in picking winners. A square engineer will not be in business for long.

[tony_come]

Every fukks are crazy on sbrforum

nothing is free in this world

Sweetjones55 is like Warren buffet in sports betting

Pass