Is that expert aware that this year more people than last year have made it to day 3 (% wise anyway)? Is he also aware that this year they ONLY play 4 levels instead of the usual 5 levels?
Also this year ESPN will be webcasting during day 3. That has NEVER happened before. That force some tight play out of some of the players.
You statistics expert cant factor in the above information.
I mean seriously Lou. Someone who would have around 40,000 chips should have your +220 odds.