Originally Posted by
McBa1n
I want to bring back the point that players will be given 5 yards MAXIMUM to start their runs on kick return coverage, unlike the last 1 billion years of the NFL. This is a big deal. According to Elias information, moving the ball back (in the 5 years prior to rule change and 5 years after rule change) from the 35 to the 30, TDs from kick returns doubled, on average. That alone is 1.x-2.0 points per game. However, with the current changes and things I explained earlier in this thread about player maximum speed, it's likely to be .5-1.x TOPS. I think, it is conceivable, that kick returns for TDs can go in any direction. Touchbacks under the same Elias criteria yielded something like 1 in 6 more touchbacks per kickoff. I think that number will move to 1 in 5 (maybe 2-5% more), with so many 'kick off specialists' but crappy FG kickers ala Cundiff in Baltimore. But you also have to consider, that teams may NOT employ a 3rd kicker on their roster based on this change. Guys like Ryan Longwell will NEVER hit the endzone outdoors - and same with a dickload of kickers. Also, with the change - kickers are more inclined to have less altitude on balls and try to drive their kickoffs 6+ yrds deep in the endzone. This creates HUGE problems for kickers as it's easy to screw up technique trying to kick the ball on a lower trajectory. Also, when a ball is kicked on a more driven than 'hang time' trajectory, it gives the returner upwords of .5 seconds and sometimes more, of making decisions in the open field. I think you have to take into account player's ability for maximum speed in a shorter window. One thing a DICKLOAD of NFL players lack is acceleration to max-speed on kick coverage. Max speed takes quite awhile in most situations on the field. Most players have most of their explosion in small windows, but not in straight line speed. This is getting silly now in breaking it down, but I still think this change might drop the 'norm' 1 point, at best, on totals. You also have to take into account that offenses during the previous 35 to 30 change did not have the same rules to benefit receivers, which made totals increase. The only guys it WILL impact are guys like Brad Smith or Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs (my fav NFL player), only just. Great players still find the end zone. I think it might actually help the BETTER special teamers only just. a hundredth of a second is a long time in the NFL. If you give the best that - they are gone.