[Slim]

Kill yourself?

[FourLengthsClear]

sorry...don't know how to calculate but would be interested in the correct answer....

to go 26-46 or worse on 53% outcomes in about 1 in 350.

[mr.ed]

Thanks....I wish I knew how to calculate myself....as I strongly suspect you misplaced a decimal point or 2, or maybe even more. If you are indeed, correct, justin7 can expect to start a streak like this every two weeks....as he is starting 25 new strings of wins and losses per day. I don't have a math background, obviously, but saying such an outcome is only 1 in 350 seems extremely low to me.

[Whippit]

1 in 350 means it can never happen

op might want to recheck his/her numbers

[Nicky Santoro]

i swear when i read the title of this thread, i thought you were telling us you have Diarrhea..

Ok, you want the right answer, here it is. now i ddn't read any of this thread, so if someone said it, sorry.

Here it is.

The best thing you are doing is betting this many games. the more games you bet, the more you will win.. assuming the majority are +ev. as long as they are +ev, bet as many as you can. I bet 111 games on Fri and Sat.. and if it wasn't all star break this weekend, i would have broke my all time record easily of 171 games this weekend. books love me because i give them lots of action.

Bad streaks will always happen, you can't avoid them. i have gone 8 weeks in a row of going 9-19 each day, followed by an 8-23 the next day. it just doesn't end.. but if you continue to play +ev games, it will turn. and when it turns, fasten your seatbelts, cause boy will it turn.

So keep doing what you're doing, bet as many games as possible, DO NOT chase and most important..DO NOT run out of money. People get greedy and run out of money at times.. Just stay in the game.

[FourLengthsClear]

Thanks....I wish I knew how to calculate myself....as I strongly suspect you misplaced a decimal point or 2, or maybe even more. If you are indeed, correct, justin7 can expect to start a streak like this every two weeks....as he is starting 25 new strings of wins and losses per day. I don't have a math background, obviously, but saying such an outcome is only 1 in 350 seems extremely low to me.

It is just a cumulative binomial



I am fairly sure that I have not "misplaced a decimal point" but if you want to try for yourself, work with =BINOMDIST in MS Excel.

[JohnGalt2341]

Justin... I noticed that you take mostly Dogs. How often do you bet the Dogs Moneyline? And why so seldom? Are the Dogs Moneyline's usually not worth it?

[opie1988]

It is just a cumulative binomial



I am fairly sure that I have not "misplaced a decimal point" but if you want to try for yourself, work with =BINOMDIST in MS Excel.

My thoughts exactly!

On a similar subject.....what are your thoughts on the latest episode of Jersey Shore??

[Flight]

I spot checked a few of the plays on Justin7's spreadsheet from the past few days and they all beat the closing number by more than 1 point. If this line movement continues to agree with him today (he beat the closing number on both of his plays today) and going forward, there is no reason to stop betting. I would stop betting if you detect the consensus is fading. (directed at readers, not the original rhetorical inquisitor)

Another point: He consistently bets non televised games in small conferences for I assume high limits since he's betting near tip off. I would hypothesize that there is newfound price sensitivity in his recent selections, just like we are used to with RAS and Dr Bob. Although I do not know if this hypothesis is valid because there is probably not that large of a following. But this is just speculation.


And my final point, excel makes z-scores easy with BINOMDIST as poster FourLengthsClear has pointed out. Just plug this into Excel:

=BINOMDIST(26,72,0.53,TRUE)

You can lookup the function help online and it should be crystal clear how to use this. The answer is .3% or 1 in 345. I looked this up and this is about 3 standard deviations away from the mean (36-36) or Z=2.75. Hopefully my math is correct here, as no one likes to be wrong in public.

[Justin7]

Justin... I noticed that you take mostly Dogs. How often do you bet the Dogs Moneyline? And why so seldom? Are the Dogs Moneyline's usually not worth it?

I don't have the data I need to analyze dog MLs. Maybe next year.

[whatsgood5]

Kill yourself?

I lol'd

[Dutch]

I do nothing but continue. In my experience bad runs are followed by a nice run of good luck.

[phillybadboy]

I lol'd

music video request

[LLXC]

Make fewer picks - concentrate on less plays.

[brad89]

Make fewer picks - concentrate on less plays.

Why?

[G's pks]

ask yourself why you are betting 73 games in 3 days...

[PRC]

The market did get smarter. One way of telling is that basketball and football markets were upgraded faster than, say, hockey. Call it the Excel acceleration. Continuing to upgrade and improve models/methods is now far more important than in the past. RAS totals no longer work, do they? He's not the only sharp experiencing this. If longterm winners are 'all' having a harder time, something is going on. It used to be enough to be just ahead of the curve. But now?

Can sharps continue to win? Of course. But it is up to each to decide how far ahead he sets his goal (1 year ahead of market, 20 years ahead?), and, last but not least, how much or little of his trade he is willing to discuss with others. I could definitely see a movement towards greater secrecy.

What makes you think RAS totals "don't work". Still a baby sample.

[PRC]

ask yourself why you are betting 73 games in 3 days...

Because he likes money.

[pavyracer]

Because he likes money.

Thanks for the joke. The juice will kill you if you bet 73 games in 3 days. And if you lose 46 games out of 73 you may lose all your bankroll.

[G's pks]

Because he likes money.

Great answer... what makes the books love guys like you...

[notsosharp]

Take a break if you feel yourself tilting. Go on a vacation where you have no access to gambling. If you go on tilt it can break anybody's roll.

[Nicky Santoro]

Thanks for the joke. The juice will kill you if you bet 73 games in 3 days. And if you lose 46 games out of 73 you may lose all your bankroll.

paver, i don't think thread this is the right place for you to post. you should stay away from gambling threads, no offence.

if a guy wanted to bet you 100$ a pop and he had 100 balls.. 55 were red and 45 were black, and you get to choose red and he charged you -110 when you lost, would you want to make a) 0 bets with him, b) 1 bet only of 100$, c) 25,000 bets, or d) 1 million bets with him??
The answer is D

The more times you bet, the more you'll make. same applies with betting 73 games. he'd be doing much better if it was 173 games.

100 bets = 55 wins of 100$ - 45 losses of 110$ for a clear profit of +$550

10,000 bets = 5500 wins of 100 - 4500 losses of 4950, for a clear profit of $55,000.

Would you rather make $550 or $55,000?? you still think it's better to bet a small amount of games.?

[Regul8er]

Very true Nicky....but when do we know we've got a 55% edge??
Very very few of us have a good understanding, with me definately not being in that category.

If in fact I did.....I assure you I would not be a sourcing specialist right now.

[pavyracer]

Nicky if you bet 73 games in 3 days means you haven't studied your models or tracked lines with the same detail and time you did if you bet 9 games. And here is where errors are made. You had the information but you didn't analyze it correctly to bet the right play. Sure a cook at a 5 star restaurant can cook 75 steaks in one night. Do you think they will all be good and according to customers requests? I'd doubt it..

[Nicky Santoro]

but if most of the lines closed at -4 -115 and you got them at -3 -105 on most of the 73 plays, then you know you will retire soon..

if you evaluate all your 73 plays and see you beat the closer on the majority of them, you are on your way. if you compare them to the closers and see you barely beat them, you will go broke eventually betting 73 games a day. You better be getting a good price on most of these games or you might as well give your money to charity.

[BetterBizness]

It's obviously market Correction PARLAY TIME!!!

[BetterBizness]

when I am in the dumps, having Pinny available to bet Div I Portuguese Rink Hockey always helps... that way either I go on a tear betting blind, or I inflate my shitty record to the point where Regression to the mean is inevitable...

Ps. Please PM me the contract for the 0.00005% royalty for using my method in your next Book Justin...

[DrStale]

Thanks for the joke. The juice will kill you if you bet 73 games in 3 days. And if you lose 46 games out of 73 you may lose all your bankroll.

Great answer... what makes the books love guys like you...

Over 60,000 posts between the two of you and you still don't understand that Justin is better at this than you will ever be. Only on SBR.

[G's pks]

Over 60,000 posts between the two of you and you still don't understand that Justin is better at this than you will ever be. Only on SBR.

Better than what? I win I could care less if he does or not...but I do wish him the best...

Maybe its time for Justin too go tout and you can buy his picks...I have seen his videos guy seems sharp...that is all I can say...

[pavyracer]

Over 60,000 posts between the two of you and you still don't understand that Justin is better at this than you will ever be. Only on SBR.

He is the best of the best. This is why everyone wants to be like him.

[durito]

ask yourself why you are betting 73 games in 3 days...

not nearly enough

[sideloaded]

pavyracer might the best pseudo sharp on SBR.

[BettingWizard]

the "juice will kill you alone with a lot of plays" theory is nonsense. According to your logic, nobody in history could ever win in their lifetimes, since in your lifetime, you would have thousands of plays.

[Salmon Steak]

<40% 24-37 betting favs in NCAAB so far this year... One time I had something hitting about 55% through about 1,300 plays. At 1,600 plays I was at 53% or so. talk about a "bad run" lol.

[RudyRuetigger]

Its funny after reading the dumb replies you can easily tell this thread is in Players Talk