1. #1
    rm18
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    NCAAB Play Of The Century

    Mississippi St. +18 GO

    I don't know where this line come from I guess some computer rankings might make MSU look bad because of a few bad games and the fact that all 3 of their top players have missed games due to suspension. All three of these guys could potentially play in the NBA. The first 13 games of the season you can pretty much throw out because Dee Bost was out. Bost is the best player that will take the floor and it is not like he is a one man team. Kentucky guys may be better pros because they are freshmen but that does not matter tonight.


    Both of these teams are 5-5 in conference and this is supposed to be a total mismatch

    Yes Kentucky has played better at home but they do not have the elite homecourt advantage others schools do this disparity between road and home should not keep up.

    Miss St. lost two games at the buzzer to a much better Kentucky team last year, and have about the same talent level that they had last year.

    MSU is inconsistent sometimes but they can play bad and still easily cover this big line. Their last two games on national TV they beat Ole Miss and Florida outright as significant underdogs, this does not seem like the spot where they greatly underachieve.

    Plus John Calipari teams are historically horrific at covering huge spreads, I remember when I first started gambling Memphis would be say -19 and they are up 15 at the half and then they are -7.5 for the 2nd half and all the pros would just pound the 2nd half line because they knew Memphis would not cover the 19, the juice at pinnacle would fly up to like -145 on a halftime it was crazy, and of course they did not cover the game line happened multiple times. This game is probably rigged but does not need to be because it should go down to the wire.

    We recommend a 45% wager on this game, and advocate up to 58% if you buy up to +20 or higher.

    Kentucky 71 Miss. St. 66

  2. #2
    iifold
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    Thanks rm18..

    On it..

  3. #3
    cankid
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    gl on your play, thx for posting

  4. #4
    HareMagare
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    Thanks for your alert ... looking forward to see what will happen to this line during today.

  5. #5
    jjgold
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    Might take it

    You make sense guy

  6. #6
    PAYTON20
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    Was just looking at this too- seems pretty money. Bost, Sidney, Johnson all playing?

    "Kentucky defeated Mississippi State twice last season -- including in the conference tournament -- but both contests went to overtime. The last six games in the series have been decided by a total of 27 points."

  7. #7
    PAYTON20
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    Still like the angle but here's some info to take into consideration:

    MSU did lose by 22 @ Georgia on 1/22.

    Lost by 14 @ Alabama on 2/2.

    Checked the box scores and their three big players all played in both these games

  8. #8
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAYTON20 View Post
    Was just looking at this too- seems pretty money. Bost, Sidney, Johnson all playing?

    "Kentucky defeated Mississippi State twice last season -- including in the conference tournament -- but both contests went to overtime. The last six games in the series have been decided by a total of 27 points."
    Yes they are all playing, and it is actually possible than Darius Miller is out for Kentucky he left Vandy game with an injury Saturday. If he does not play Kentucky only has 5 guys left that score over 2 points a game.

  9. #9
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by PAYTON20 View Post
    Still like the angle but here's some info to take into consideration:

    MSU did lose by 22 @ Georgia on 1/22.

    Lost by 14 @ Alabama on 2/2.

    Checked the box scores and their three big players all played in both these games
    It could happen, sometimes underdogs win by 20 points like the Bobcats yesterday. Kentucky should be favored but the line is way too high. Kentucky is going to have to have a huge edge from 3 point range to cover.

  10. #10
    Dank_Fire
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    I'll have to look into this. Ths for the heads up

  11. #11
    PAYTON20
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    Quote Originally Posted by rm18 View Post
    It could happen, sometimes underdogs win by 20 points like the Bobcats yesterday. Kentucky should be favored but the line is way too high. Kentucky is going to have to have a huge edge from 3 point range to cover.
    I agree that it seems high. Kentucky could win big and still give up a backdoor cover. Are you going to buy to +20 like mentioned in your first post? That gets pretty juicy at -150. Also, wait for line to move, or do you think it's going to move toward 17?
    Last edited by PAYTON20; 02-15-11 at 06:22 AM.

  12. #12
    VicVega91
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    Best of luck today !!

  13. #13
    rm18
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    It looks like Darius Miller is out tonight, this is huge with Kentucky having a 6 man rotation, any foul trouble or injury in the game they really will be up against it.

  14. #14
    CindyCryBaby
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    good luck on this...

  15. #15
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
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    I was wondering why this line is so high...can't wrap my mind around this, UK is prob. my fav. college team, but hard to get a grasp of. Line seems way to high...but sometimes it's that way for a reason...my only play here would be Miss St. like u said RM....I might just sit out. We'll see

    Good Luck

  16. #16
    Romanov
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    Hey you guys, Kansas -3.5 was a play of the century too

  17. #17
    C-Low420
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    I agree..that's too many points. I see miss st. losing by 8-10. GL

  18. #18
    LChruscial85
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    Love the play..GL

  19. #19
    Soxsfan9
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    I like it rm, BOL

  20. #20
    agharah1
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    Last year the two games were closer because Mississippi State had Jarvis Vernardo, who led the SEC in blocks almost every single year. A 6'7" "guard", a point guard too dumb to realize when the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline was, and a team cancer the size of Jelan Kendrick. Stansbury has lost this team.

    Still, the only way I see Kentucky covering is if Mississippi State basically quits at the end. I might throw MSU +18 in a 10pt teaser.

  21. #21
    mrmann1
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    Is Darius Miller officially out?

  22. #22
    mrmann1
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    Anyone know if the line movement from public betting favors Kentucky or msu..meaning is the line being driven up/down

  23. #23
    PAYTON20
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrmann1 View Post
    Anyone know if the line movement from public betting favors Kentucky or msu..meaning is the line being driven up/down
    Down. It went from 18 to 17.5. Damnit... I waited...

  24. #24
    VegasInsider
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    Looks like a decent play

  25. #25
    PAYTON20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Romanov View Post
    Hey you guys, Kansas -3.5 was a play of the century too
    the #1 team in the nation favored on the road on national TV is pretty much the complete opposite of this bet haha

  26. #26
    swaindexter
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    Very interesting...Will check this one out as well. Thanks for the heads up............

  27. #27
    ehp6737
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    Gotta love anything titled "play of the century"

  28. #28
    rm18
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    Although the line is going down seems like everyone on MSU nobody even thinking about betting Kentucky which is weird.

    Is there anyone on the forum on Kentucky and it is the ESPN game? TV game and nobody like the favorite is weird but I'm not worried

  29. #29
    CappinTerp
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    A lot of points but why so damm high?? Would rather lay the wood. GL to all.!

  30. #30
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrmann1 View Post
    Is Darius Miller officially out?
    he is listed doubtful, Calipari seemed pretty sure he was out in an interview

  31. #31
    BigDofBA
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    I had Kentucky winning this game by 21.

    Maybe I'm way off.....I'll have to look at some more but I'll probably lay off this one.

    It always makes me think when people buy the hook on a so called "lock of the century".

  32. #32
    RedSox88
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    Im on Kentucky - 18. KY will win by 20+ I'm not saying its my favorite bet and im betting very small only .5 unit but trust me its -18 for a reason these line makers are genius and theyre saying KY is gonn ahave a breakout game and they will.

  33. #33
    KingKolzig
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    got it at +17.5

  34. #34
    phish4buds
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    seems like everyone is on this play, hope it works out

  35. #35
    btd
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    Your writeup makes a lot of sense , line seems a bit too high.

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