1. #1
    Brock Landers
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    A 3-Point Green Bay Victory In Super Bowl Could Cost Vegas Millions


    One of the worst things that can happen to an odds-maker is to get ‘middled’.
    ‘Middling’ is a phenomenon that occurs when, because of movements in the betting line, odds-makers open themselves up to the possibility of losing to 2 different groups of bettors simultaneously.
    Based on the Opening Vegas Line for Super Bowl XLV, there is a small but realistic chance that Vegas odds-makers could get ‘middled’ in 2 weeks if the betting public significantly moves the betting line and if the game outcome ends up on an unlucky number for Vegas odds-makers and bookies alike.
    To this day, Super Bowl XIII is considered ‘Black Sunday’ due to the financial thumping that Vegas odds-makers suffered.
    Super Bowl XIII featured the 2 darling franchises of the NFL as the Pittsburgh Steelers faced the Dallas Cowboys.
    The Vegas Opening Line had Pittsburgh as a 3½ point favorite.
    Heavy dollars came in on the Steelers and the line eventually moved up to 4½ points where it closed.
    The final score of Super Bowl XIII: Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31.
    This meant that early Pittsburgh bettors who took Pittsburgh as a 3.5 point favorite AND late Dallas bettors who took Dallas as a 4.5 point underdog BOTH won.
    The books got ‘middled’, and as a result, lost million and millions of dollars.
    On Sunday night the Green Bay Packers opened as a 2-point betting favorite for Super Bowl XLV.
    If tons of money comes in on Green Bay at this ‘price’, odds-makers will be compelled to raise the line in order to balance the dollars bet on both teams.
    And though unlikely to move as much as 1.5 points from the opening line, if the line gets as high as the Packers being favored by 3½ points, the chances of another Vegas bloodbath increase substantially since a ‘3-point differential’ is the most common point differential in NFL games.
    Vegas is obviously hoping that a relatively balanced dollar amount comes in on the 2 teams at this opening line such that they wouldn’t feel compelled or tempted to move the line by more than 1 point.
    For example, if the betting line goes as high as the Packers favored by 3 and if the Packers indeed win by 3 points, then all bets at that line would be refunded at legal books in Nevada (note that illegal bookies often times keep bets when there is a tie or ‘push’ as it is called in betting circles).
    Though less likely a scenario, the books could also get middled if the line falls to Packers favored by 0.5 points should heavy dollars initially come in on Pittsburgh. Under this scenario, a 1-point Packers victory would be similarly devastating though less likely as a ‘1-point differential’ is less common than a ‘3-point differential’.
    Long story short, Vegas odds-makers are going to hope above all hope that:
    a) They will not have to change their opening line more than 1 point between now and February 6th;
    b) The Packers don’t win by exactly 3 points should the betting public flood the market with Packers bets such that the line eventually moves up to and stays at 3.5 points.
    So you see, folks, even odds-makers need a little bit of luck to win in Vegas once in awhile.
    175 pts

    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/21/2022

  2. #2
    dfberger23's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Line will probably close at 2, no way it moves to -3 or 3.5.

  3. #3
    sharpcat's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Line opened as a PK and GB is currently a 2.5 point favorite

  4. #4
    ebbearsfb1's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Line opened between 1.5 and 2.5 steelers for the win