[ChuckyTheGoat]

712 FRESNO +4.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96

[ChuckyTheGoat]

712 FRESNO +4.5 (1.96). 1 to win .96

Very light analysis. Light play.

Honestly, don't expect too many plays until I get up to speed on my research. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another light Coll Bask play (for Thurs): 827 Utah +1.5 (1.91). 1 to win .91.

Not much analysis. Just think the Utes are value. Catching points, and they look to have a good to win S/U.

[Da Manster!]

good luck Chuck but Utes are usually ass on the road. no way could I ever back them away from their house.


PS...nice call and good hit on Fresno ST (+4.5)...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

good luck Chuck but Utes are usually ass on the road. no way could I ever back them away from their house.


PS...nice call and good hit on Fresno ST (+4.5)...

Thx, Manster. Just trying to play value.

Your point on HFA is noted. Just not sure they should be Dog here. Always a chance to steal it on the 1-pt loss, too.

All that said, I don't rate my Coll Bask game to be strong at all. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another light Coll Bask play (for Thurs): 827 Utah +1.5 (1.91). 1 to win .91.

Not much analysis. Just think the Utes are value. Catching points, and they look to have a good to win S/U.

Adding a unit on the Utes: +2.5 (1.80). 1.00 to win .80.

[veriableodds]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

We shall see, Veri. THAT'S why they play the games.

[veriableodds]

We shall see, Veri. THAT'S why they play the games.

Really can't go wrong here chuck. USC so overrated, for some reason far superior teams are having ongoing problems on the road this year.

[veriableodds]

2023-2023 NCAA BB Games: Utes Trojans Overview - (teamrankings.com)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2023-2023 NCAA BB Games: Utes Trojans Overview - (teamrankings.com)

Thx, veri. Not sure I put any stock in the projections I see online.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Really can't go wrong here chuck. USC so overrated, for some reason far superior teams are having ongoing problems on the road this year.

Hoping so. Have to admit I'm out of my element. Looked at it and liked it, hoping for the best.

[veriableodds]

Utah came up short, reiterates the fact these good teams struggle bad this year on the road. Although this fella isn't on it you may like this play. New Mexico @ +250 is +ev @ 33.3% chance of winning. Still better would be the alternative line of +4.5 @+120. Those projections as in 2023-2023 NCAA BB Games: Lobos Aztecs Overview - (teamrankings.com) are just stats, just like Espn ect, uploaded, and data scraped every day, something I didn't look at for this matchup was sos#. I don't put much stock into these either just use many tools as confirmation points along with model#'s. Even though I had KC for the SB , risking anything more than a strict money management principal would be foolish.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

UTAH TECH +6.5 (1.95). 1 to win .95

[ChuckyTheGoat]

863 Utah Utes +5.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

...Going back to the Utes. Just think the line-value is generous.

FWIW, the Utes crushed ucla in 1st meet. Good Luck.

[Da Manster!]

863 Utah Utes +5.5 (1.92). 1 to win .92.

...Going back to the Utes. Just think the line-value is generous.

FWIW, the Utes crushed ucla in 1st meet. Good Luck.

Not really Chuck...the line was UCLA (-2.5) all day long until the last several hours or so and got bumped up to (+5.5)...that is sharp money moving that number. I got the Bruins (-2.5) on the last leg of my 3 team parlay (+600)...My cash out option is $400. I decided to let it ride since the line moved in my favor and seems like UCLA is the "right" side.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not really Chuck...the line was UCLA (-2.5) all day long until the last several hours or so and got bumped up to (+5.5)...that is sharp money moving that number. I got the Bruins (-2.5) on the last leg of my 3 team parlay (+600)...My cash out option is $400. I decided to let it ride since the line moved in my favor and seems like UCLA is the "right" side.

You already warned me. Call me a slow-learner.

You got -2.5 in your pocket. So, THAT was the sharp #.

[Da Manster!]

You already warned me. Call me a slow-learner.

You got -2.5 in your pocket. So, THAT was the sharp #.

thanks buddy hopefully we can middle this!......but I'm still debating if I should just go ahead and take the sure profit of $400. I still made (+3 units) on the day. All of us gamblers will take that 100 out of 100 times, yes? and like the old saying goes "A fast nickel is better than a slow dime". but I do have the value now with the bruins. I'm not greedy so I'm really conflicted as what I should do! It's a good dilemma and problem to have in this hobby of ours...

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Manster, I used to debate games when I was more active. Now, I take a hard stance of what I think the line should be. Then I compare to the market line. If I think there's a delta, I make a bet.

Add in the concept of BTCL value. Your -2.5 ticket is MUCH better than my +5.5. I normally tell people not to overdo the buyback UNLESS you feel like you're over-exposed on a big bet.

It's a game of value, and your BTCL value is strong here. Also, if I did buyback in that spot, it would be a SMALL play. Just a bet to change your weighted average line.

GL on the play. Anyone who reads my threads over the L12 months knows that I'm not playing at a professional level nowadays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A lot of ncaaBB upsets today. Utes win by 1.

Incoming: 102.92.

*During the week, 3-0 on the 1* plays, lost the 2* on Utah in mid-week. Cleared a net profit this week.

Week: +.83/5.

Aggregate: 103.75.