[veriableodds]

these lines look very interesting to me. THOUGHTs??
az/wsh/ov-40(line seems way low)
gb/+2.5(model giving unheard of 68.7% to win)
buff/-1/(same thing 76.7% to win)
Do new players and qb's really have that much effect?? Would not the same thing apply/be true for the opponent as well??

[Optional]

everyone is jonesing for NFL season but, for me, any perceived value is watered down by the length of time the money is tied up and too many other yet to be known factors to be betting week 1 yet.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

these lines look very interesting to me. THOUGHTs??
az/wsh/ov-40(line seems way low)
gb/+2.5(model giving unheard of 68.7% to win)
buff/-1/(same thing 76.7% to win)
Do new players and qb's really have that much effect?? Would not the same thing apply/be true for the opponent as well??

I don't like JLove. But the dropoff might not be that big. People who were watching know that Rodgers' level of play has been declining.

Interesting on Buffalo. Bills are forgotten about, people are gung-ho on the Jets w/ Rodgers.

[stevenash]

There's always going to be a couple of key preseason injuries that could f**k your week 1 future bets though.

[Thefix13]

these lines look very interesting to me. THOUGHTs??
az/wsh/ov-40(line seems way low)
gb/+2.5(model giving unheard of 68.7% to win)
buff/-1/(same thing 76.7% to win)
Do new players and qb's really have that much effect?? Would not the same thing apply/be true for the opponent as well??

Have you seem Colt Mccoy play?

Love is a total wildcard

Bills have not improved since last year and the Jets have a statement to make right out of the gate. Take away Diggs and how are the bills going to beat you? Jets ( assuming health ) have a loaded defense. Bills and Cowboys get constant hype but neither will win a damn thing in the next decade.

[franz555]

Bills will improve just by having a healthy Von Miller this season. Diggs is under contract and a close friend of QB Allen, nothing going on there. Cowboys are " America's Team " and are the hyped team by $$$ and TV revenue. Buffalo are a small market team known as perennial losers since the 90's. With Allen , Diggs , a solid coaching staff , GM .....etc etc have earned there way into 3 decent playoff runs. Jets have had a decent D for the past 2 seasons , with Rogers it will make the division interesting.

[GunShard]

I would bet Chiefs -6.5 before it reaches -7. And bet Ravens -9.5 before it reaches -10 in September.

[stevenash]

Have you seem Colt Mccoy play?

Have I seen McCoy play?
He's like me, older than dirt.

I've seen them all play.
I'm a lifelong Giants fan, I saw Cleveland with Baker dismantle NYG and McCoy starting for an injured Daniel Jones couple of years ago.

Yeah, I've seen McCoy play.

[stevex]

There's always going to be a couple of key preseason injuries that could f**k your week 1 future bets though.

This. It’s also why I never do fantasy drafts until a week before the regular season starts.

[stevenash]

This. It’s also why I never do fantasy drafts until a week before the regular season starts.

Me too.
I'm heavy into the Best Ball Leagues, I wait until the Sunday before the Thursday Week one kickoff.

[Eddy Munny]

This. It’s also why I never do fantasy drafts until a week before the regular season starts.

That's soft. Early FF drafts can yield some of the best value for people who stay ahead of the game. By the time September rolls around, every square in town can basically default to someone's rankings and draft at least a serviceable team. There's very few secrets if any by that point.

Of course you can have an injury mess your team up, but why is that automatically viewed as a deterrent? There's 11 other teams (standard 12 teamer) in the league. That means there's an 11 in 12 chance that a key injury affects someone else's team, not yours. The upside of stealing players before their ADP swells far outweighs the downside.

[stevenash]

That's soft. Early FF drafts can yield some of the best value for people who stay ahead of the game. By the time September rolls around, every square in town can basically default to someone's rankings and draft at least a serviceable team. There's very few secrets if any by that point.

Of course you can have an injury mess your team up, but why is that automatically viewed as a deterrent? There's 11 other teams (standard 12 teamer) in the league. That means there's an 11 in 12 chance that a key injury affects someone else's team, not yours. The upside of stealing players before their ADP swells far outweighs the downside.

I don't mind entering an early draft league, but there's a different strategy involved.
You need to pay attention to handcuffs more in the early drafts than in a later draft league for instance.
i'm not saying you should ignore the key handcuffs in the later drafts, don't get me wrong.

I've been playing FFB forever, this is only my third season playing the Best Ball Format.
I'm the furthest thing from lazy but there's something about the zero maintenance leagues I love.

[Eddy Munny]

these lines look very interesting to me. THOUGHTs??
az/wsh/ov-40(line seems way low)
gb/+2.5(model giving unheard of 68.7% to win)
buff/-1/(same thing 76.7% to win)
Do new players and qb's really have that much effect?? Would not the same thing apply/be true for the opponent as well??

I do like to bet some games early... These I have no stake in, but I'll push back a little bit.

Zona/Wash is going to feature McCoy vs. Howell, doesn't exactly strike me as a shootout. Gameplans for both could be a bit conservative, unless someone finds themselves in an early hole and has to get aggressive. The Cardinals offensive line on paper will have its hands full with Washington's front. Maybe the Commanders hit some big plays, but Rivera isn't the kind of coach to keep his foot on the gas if he has a lead.

Bears are an improved team.. offensive line might actually be average this year, which is a step in the right direction. D.J. Moore gives them a true #1. Those facts alone close the gap between them and the Packers even if there isn't a whole lot of dropoff from Rodgers to Love. Now add in a home field advantage for Chicago against their long time rival and the line seems spot on.

Bill/Jets to me seem like another accurate line. How much did the Bills really improve? They were already very good of course, but the Jets were a quarterback away from being right there last year. In fact they beat the Bills last year in this same matchup. The Jets offensive line is one to watch because if they have the starting five in there that they hope to have on opening day, then they shouldn't be total pushovers up front. Maybe there's slight value on the Bills at the current number but nothing I'm racing to the window for.

[Eddy Munny]

I don't mind entering an early draft league, but there's a different strategy involved.
You need to pay attention to handcuffs more in the early drafts than in a later draft league for instance.
i'm not saying you should ignore the key handcuffs in the later drafts, don't get me wrong.

I've been playing FFB forever, this is only my third season playing the Best Ball Format.
I'm the furthest thing from lazy but there's something about the zero maintenance leagues I love.

I don't believe time of draft should affect your decision as to whether to target a handcuff or not... If the starter goes down, it's far more likely to occur at some point during the season than practices or exhibitions leading up to the season. I think a bigger question is whether or not that handcuff is with worth a pick over another potential upside player at that ADP.

[veriableodds]

Well good info thanks all. Think I will just stick to the total ov-40 play. Alot of you guys seem well informed, and can't wait for season to start. I don't dabble near as much like I use to. If you include cfl, nfl, ncaaf the volume is low for me anyway even at f.time. NFL is small first month then raised till week 11(then I am out) . Just thought those lines were interesting.