SBR's resident prop specialist Jon Metler shares his 4 best NBA player prop bets for Wednesday's playoff action:
Player prop: Immanuel Quickley Over 8.5 points vs. Cavaliers (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
"We've seen this movie before in the playoffs with a Caris LeVert assist prop and a Kyle Lowry assist prop. One of the sportsbooks, such as FanDuel, BetRivers, or PointsBet, tries to open a line on its own, messes it up, and adjusts its line significantly once it sees what Pinnacle has it trading at.
At PointsBet, Quickley is trading at Over 8.5 points (-115), but when Pinnacle opened this line, Quickley was trading at Over 11.5 (-116). That's a massive difference, and just like the Colorado Buffaloes in the Pac-12, the line movement is coming.
Quickley is projected to score 10.9 points, which actually puts him under Pinnacle's total of 11.5 points but way over PointsBet's total of 8.5 points. With this projection, we can price Quickley at -185 to score more than 8.5 points on Wednesday."
Player prop: Jimmy Butler Under 27.5 points vs. Bucks (+134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"During Game 4, I wagered on Jimmy Butler scoring less than 27.5 points at a betting line of +116, and we all know that didn't work out too well. Butler ended up scoring 56 points, which more than doubled the total of 27.5 points. The truth is, I still think that the line was set too high.
Though Andrew Brennan from SBR might think that Butler will score 40-plus points now, I'm still hopeful that Butler will score Under 27.5 points during Game 5. Even with his big performance last game, if he goes Under during Game 5, I'll still be up 0.34 units by playing his Under during the last two games.
Butler is projected to score 27.4 points on Wednesday, which is slightly higher than his projection from Game 4 (which was 26.8 points), but the betting line has also adjusted from +116 to +134. Based on this projection, Butler can be priced at -115 to go Under the total of 27.5 points.
You might be wondering why I'm choosing the alternate total of 27.5 points. Well, if we bet on the Under for 29.5 points at -115, our expected value is 15%, and if we bet on the Under for 28.5 points at +104, our expected value is 19%. However, if we go for the Under for 27.5 points at +134, our expected value is 25%, which makes it the best bet."
Player prop: Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists vs. Kings (+107 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
"Put this prop in the category of bets that shouldn't be trading at plus money and probably won't be for much longer. If you wait too long to place your bet, the odds will likely change.
Stephen Curry is projected to have 6.7 assists in Wednesday's game against the Kings, so the Over should be priced at -175 instead of +107. Yes, you read that right - the projection is 6.7 assists and a price of -175. This means that the bet has a positive expected value of 31%.
Some of our best sportsbooks like Caesars and BetMGM have already lowered the odds to -104 and -105, respectively, but there are still three that have it listed as a plus-money wager. BetRivers has the highest odds at +107, followed by PointsBet at +105, and FanDuel at +104. Our other best sports betting sites will likely adjust the odds soon, so you'll need to act quickly if you want to take advantage of this opportunity."
Player prop: Andrew Wiggins Over 17.5 points vs. Kings (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
"The Golden State Warriors are facing a crucial Game 5 at the Golden 1 Center - known as one of the loudest arenas in the entire NBA - on Wednesday night. To be honest, Andrew Wiggins has been one of the Warriors' best performers in high-pressure situations, and he's not afraid to shoot the ball when it matters most.
In Game 4, Wiggins scored 18 points despite attempting only two field goals from beyond the 3-point line. It's noteworthy that Wiggins scored more than 17.5 points even though he didn't take as many 3-point shots as usual. This is a positive sign for someone who is projected to score 19.8 points against the Kings, which means we can price this prop at -150.
Not only do the projections favor Wiggins to go Over the total on Wednesday night, but you can also get a great deal with the -115 price point offered by BetRivers. Meanwhile, BetMGM has the Over 17.5 points trading at -130, and DraftKings has it priced at -125."
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