[JIBBBY]

Best odds link -


https://fightodds.io/mma-events/4438...lkanovski/odds

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMAMANIA






145 lbs.: Jack Jenkins (10-2) vs. Don Shainis (12-4)

“Phar” capped off his run in Eternal MMA with a one-sided rout of Rod Costa to defend his Featherweight title. His wins sent him to the Contender Series, where he battered Freddy Emiliano Linares with ground-and-pound to punch his ticket to UFC.
He’ll have an inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach on “Shameless”.
Shainis’ five-fight win streak saw him win regional titles in two weight classes before stepping up to face Sodiq Yusuff in his UFC debut. The Cinderella story was not to be, as Shainis tapped to a Yusuff guillotine just 30 seconds into the first round.
He’s knocked out eight pro foes and submitted two others.
“Shameless” needs to make this as ugly as possible as quickly as possible. Jenkins’ boxing is several levels above Shainis’ and the former has shown off enough wrestling skills to make grinding him out a tall task. Where Jenkins struggles is when he can’t get comfortable, meaning Shainis has a shot if he can put on the same pressure Linares did without allowing Jenkins to bail himself out with wrestling.
I’m not convinced he can pull it off. Jenkins’ ability to go five rounds means Shainis can’t rely on overwhelming him late, and Shainis will have more and more trouble initiating the grind as Jenkins tears up his lead leg and jabs his face off. Jenkins steadily breaks him down for either a wide decision or late stoppage.
Prediction: Jenkins via unanimous decision
Related
I’ve Got The Power! Makhachev Wants A Volk KO

115 lbs.: Loma Lookboonmee (7-3) vs. Elise Reed (6-2)

Lookboonmee put a UFC debut loss to Angela Hill behind her with two straight victories over Jinh Yu Frey and Sam Hughes, only to suffer an upset loss to Lupita Godinez her next time out. She got back on track in 2022 by surviving a late submission attack to beat Contender Series veteran Denis Gomes.
She stands two inches shorter than Reed and faces a 1.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Following a strong reign as Cage Fury Strawweight Champion, Reed stepped up in weight on short notice to fight Sijara Eubanks, who put her away with ground-and-pound late in the first round. Things have worked out a bit better at her natural weight class, where she’s scored upsets of Cory McKenna and Melissa Martinez in her last three appearances.
She’s scored two pro wins by knockout.
The critical element here is Lookboonmee’s takedowns. Reed proved that her long-range kickboxing can overcome high-level strikers when she beat Martinez, and while Lookboonmee unquestionably has the edge in close, it’s not hard to imagine Reed using her height and length to pepper Lookboonmee while staying out of the danger zone.
Thus, the takedowns. Lookboonmee ragdolled a very solid wrestler in Hughes, who ran roughshod over Reed on the mat. Lookboonmee isn’t always the best at using the correct weapons at the correct times, but with such a clear avenue to victory, it’s hard to pick against her. Strong clinch work and wrestling earn Lookboonmee a comfortable win.
Prediction: Lookboonmee via unanimous decision
Related
White: UFC 284 Will Beat Mac, Break PPV Record

145 lbs.: Shane Young (13-6) vs. Blake Bilder (7-0-1)

Young, who had the unenviable task of facing Alexander Volkanovski in his UFC debut, pushed his Octagon record back over .500 by beating Rolando Dy and Austin Arnett. He’s winless since, falling to Ludovit Klein and Omar Morales in back-to-back bouts.
This marks his first bout in nearly two years.
Bilder went 7-0 as an amateur before a pro start that saw him win and defend the Cage Fury Featherweight title. He entered Contender Series as an underdog against Canadian veteran Alex Morgan, but secured a UFC contract via first-round submission.
He’ll enjoy a four-inch reach advantage.
It really is a shame that Bilder is so fragile. He’s admirably aggressive on the feet and delightfully smooth on the mat, but recent efforts suggest that he can’t take the sort of firepower Young dishes out. Though Young has struggled with strong takedown artists before, Bilder lacks the wrestling skill to bring his strong ground game to bear.
In a standup battle, Young’s technique, experience, and durability figure to win the day. So long as he’s not too hampered by rust, he out-wars Bilder to a stoppage before the midway point.
Prediction: Young via second round technical knockout
Related
Whoops! White Forgets Makhachev’s Name While Promoting UFC 284

155 lbs.: Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) vs. Elves Brenner (13-3)

Now entering his 10th year in the Octagon, Tukhugov has managed just eight appearances with a 5-2-1 record. His current 2-1 run features a split decision loss to Hakeem Dawodu sandwiched between losses to Kevin Aguilar and Ricardo Ramos.
He fights for the first time in more than two years.
Brenner, representing Chute Boxe Diego Lima, won his first nine professional bouts before hitting a 2-3 rut. He enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive first-round submissions, the last one coming in March 2022.
He replaces Joel Alvarez, who ran into **** issues, on less than a month’s notice.
I’ve seen my share of young fighters make incredible technical turnarounds out of nowhere, and Brenner better hope he’s one of them. He can’t employ his preferred “takedown to ground-and-pound to submission” approach against a wrestler of Tukhugov’s caliber, and to make things worse, he’s proven vulnerable to the sorts of heavy right hands that Tukhugov just loves to throw.
If the miracle improvement isn’t there, Brenner has to bank on a combination of rust and lack of size on Tukhugov’s part. That’s just too many stars that have to align, especially when Tukhugov’s power and technique advantages give him so much more wiggle room. He levels Brenner with an early overhand.
Prediction: Tukhugov via first round technical knockout



205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas

A red-hot undefeated (2-0) UFC start gave way to a 1-3 skid for Tyson Pedro (9-3). Then, a 3.5-year layoff followed, since which he’s bounced back with quick knockouts of Ike Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, five of them via submission.
After a successful UFC debut against Andreas Michailidis, Modestas Bukauskas (13-5) exited the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion on a three-fight losing streak. He then returned to Cage Warriors, once again claiming the promotion’s Light Heavyweight title by knocking out Chuck Campbell in Dec. 2022.
He steps in for the injured Zhang Mingyang on around 2.5 weeks’ notice.
I’m glad to see Bukauskas get a second chance, especially after that wonky decision against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Fingers crossed they keep him on the roster after this fight goes south.
I’m well aware that Pedro’s current hot streak is smoke and mirrors — Villanueva and Hunsucker were some of the worst UFC Light Heavyweights in recent memory. He still looks to have way too much horsepower for the undersized Bukauskas, and though Pedro can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like few others, I expect another early knockout as he swarms Bukauskas before the latter can get warmed up.
Prediction: Pedro via first round technical knockout
Related
Makhachev Unhappy With Lack Of UFC 284 Promotion

145 lbs.: Joshua Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Joshua Culibao (10-1) struggled out of the UFC gate with a knockout loss to Jalin Turner and a competitive draw against Charles Jourdain. Subsequent efforts have proven more fruitful, and “Kuya” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of consecutive wins over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke and Seung Woo Choi.
He’ll enjoy an inch of height and three inches of reach on Baghdasaryan.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1) made his first trip to the judges on Contender Series, where he cruised past Dennis Buzukja to secure a UFC contract. His two UFC appearances have seen him put away fellow Contender Series veteran, Collin Anglin, with a head kick and outlast LFA champion Bruno Souza for a unanimous decision.
All but one of his five knockouts have come inside the first minute.
The oddsmakers have this a dead heat at time of writing, and it’s not hard to see why. Culibao is a marvelous fighter when all his gears are meshing, but has had his share of issues putting everything together, while Baghdasaryan remains largely untested. It’s an extremely volatile matchup that could be either an excellent back-and-forth striking battle or a weirdly underwhelming grind.
I’ve got Culibao by a hair, largely thanks to his willingness to grapple if necessary. Again, this is the sort of fight that could take any number of bizarre turns, but “Kuya” should be able to keep pace with Baghdasaryan at a distance and muddy it up enough to pull away when both start to gas.
Prediction: Culibao via split decision
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125 lbs.: Shannon Ross vs. Kleydson Rodrigues

Shannon Ross (12-6) claimed the Eternal MMA Flyweight title with a third-round knockout of Paul Loga, but came up short in his inaugural defense against Steve Erceg. After rebounding with a decision over Contender Series veteran, Donavon Frelow, he made his own Contender Series bid against Vinicius Salvador, who knocked him out to cap off a two-round fire-fight.
He’s the taller man by one inch, but gives up that amount of reach.
Kleydson Rodrigues (7-2) went from choking out Eduardo Henrique for the Jungle Fight Flyweight title to dominating Santo Curatolo on Contender Series. This led to a UFC debut against CJ Vergara, who took home a hugely controversial split decision win in Phoenix.
“K.R.” has ended five of his seven wins inside the distance, three of them via knockout.
Admirably game though he may be, the myriad knockdowns Ross suffered against Salvador weren’t an anomaly. The man gets dropped with worrying regularity, which is a pretty bad problem to have against a younger and more versatile striker in Rodrigues. It seems inevitable that Ross will get clipped at some point, especially since he can’t overpower Rodrigues’ wrestling to get it to the mat if things get hairy.
Ross is very difficult to put down for good, but Rodrigues has enough tools in his arsenal to get the job done. Either a big flurry or a club-and-sub will end things by the end of the second.
Prediction: Rodrigues via second round submission
Related
I’ve Got The Power! Makhachev Wants A Volk KO

155 lbs.: Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado

Jamie Mullarkey’s (15-5) UFC run got off on the wrong foot, as he dropped consecutive decisions to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam. He’s 3-1 since, including violent knockouts of Khama Worthy and Devonte Smith.
He sports a three-inch reach advantage to go with his two-inch height advantage.
Francisco Prado (11-0) left his homeland of Argentina to join the Brazilian scene in his fifth pro fight, ultimately settling in the Samurai Fight House promotion. He claimed its Lightweight title in Oct. 2022, then defended it with a 77-second finish just two months later.
All of his wins have come by stoppage, eight of them in the first round.
I respect the hell out of Prado for taking the challenge and firmly believe he’s got what it takes to be a quality UFC fighter. I just don’t see this going well for him; Mullarkey offers a similar mix of high-octane slugging and smothering grappling, with the difference that he’s made it work against much higher-level opposition.
Prado is young, dynamic and aggressive enough to give Mullarkey hell in the early going. Considering Mullarkey’s legendary toughness, though, odds are that he weathers Prado’s best shots and slowly takes over for a late finish.
Prediction: Mullarkey via third round technical knockout

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins -

[JIBBBY]

Wrestling rules in MMA! Going to have to fade Alexander in this one. Really don't like the odds on the fade at -350 though. Alex is just to short and looks small moving up the weight class. Might just take the sub prop for small and just enjoy the main event at better odds.

[Demonata]

Thanks for posting this jibby.

[JIBBBY]

Thanks for posting this jibby.

[Allure]

Alex could be bigger and taller and whatever. Size doesn't even matter in this one. It's no grappling vs 20+ years of elite Sambo. And Volks' TD defence was against guys who can't grapple.

Ortega almost submitted Alex, how the fukk can anyone be comfortably saying that Islam can't keep Alex on the ground. Volk may win on the feet but thinking he has 0.1% chance of survival on the ground is the definition of being a "casual".

[mackave]

forums dead jesus christ, no one posting

[JIBBBY]

forums dead jesus christ, no one posting

I'm posting.. Gotta build it back up. I'll do my part with every event with solid capping information.

[JIBBBY]

Alex could be bigger and taller and whatever. Size doesn't even matter in this one. It's no grappling vs 20+ years of elite Sambo. And Volks' TD defence was against guys who can't grapple.

Ortega almost submitted Alex, how the fukk can anyone be comfortably saying that Islam can't keep Alex on the ground. Volk may win on the feet but thinking he has 0.1% chance of survival on the ground is the definition of being a "casual".

Islam ground advantage is huge in this fight and that can't be over looked. That's why he is the big favorite going in...

[JIBBBY]

Well it's game time! Good luck everyone!

[boss_of_um]

Good luck all!

[Optional]

I parlayed first four big chalks for +167, just to have some rooting interest.

need some tips for better bets.

[Optional]

Well that will teach me.

Could anyone see how Brenner could have won all 3 rounds, 30-27, in that?

[mama whoiscrying]

Appreciate the time you take to post this Jibby
Thanks

[jrgum3]

Well that will teach me.

Could anyone see how Brenner could have won all 3 rounds, 30-27, in that?

I don't think Brenner won the last two rounds but I did think he won the first round based on the damage he did to Tukhugov. I thought Tukhugov won the second and third round based on clinch control and more effective striking so I felt he should have won even though that was close.

[jrgum3]

Wrestling rules in MMA! Going to have to fade Alexander in this one. Really don't like the odds on the fade at -350 though. Alex is just to short and looks small moving up the weight class. Might just take the sub prop for small and just enjoy the main event at better odds.

I agree I played Makhachev ITD at -150. I think this is a fairly safe bet because I see Makhachev getting the fight to the ground and finishing Volk either by locking in a submission or by ground and pound. Can't wait to see how it plays out though because I love Volk and think his best chance to win is by keeping the fight on the feet and winning a striking war. He's more than capable of this because I consider him to be one of the best strikers in the world and all it takes is one punch in MMA to win a fight.

[JIBBBY]

I parlayed first four big chalks for +167, just to have some rooting interest.

need some tips for better bets.

Opti this event at RAC Arena in Perth WA, Australia you should have attended live buddy. Your home town no?

[JIBBBY]

I agree I played Makhachev ITD at -150. I think this is a fairly safe bet because I see Makhachev getting the fight to the ground and finishing Volk either by locking in a submission or by ground and pound. Can't wait to see how it plays out though because I love Volk and think his best chance to win is by keeping the fight on the feet and winning a striking war. He's more than capable of this because I consider him to be one of the best strikers in the world and all it takes is one punch in MMA to win a fight.

Well that's my thinking as well. Volky is hard to finish though. Slight chance it could go decision. That's gambling though either you take the Decision or ITD prop. Flip that coin!

[hwgfb]

Lookboonmee & Della Maddalena M/L Parlay -140 good luck all

[JIBBBY]

First fight was a straight up robbery! I had a few bucks on the dog and not complaining but that was a straight up robbery. Gotta love these UFC judges .

[gauchojake]

Bispbing getting a little hands-y with the Thai chick lol

[pavyracer]

Well that will teach me.

Could anyone see how Brenner could have won all 3 rounds, 30-27, in that?

Look at his face when the fight was over. He didn't have a single scratch. So all the jabs that Young was landing were toothless.

[pavyracer]

I don't think Brenner won the last two rounds but I did think he won the first round based on the damage he did to Tukhugov. I thought Tukhugov won the second and third round based on clinch control and more effective striking so I felt he should have won even though that was close.

Tukhugov had more damage on him than Brenner. The judges notice that too. Who got beaten up the most during the fight? It's not always who landed more shots but who landed the most damaging shots.

[Art Vandelay]

Bispbing getting a little hands-y with the Thai chick lol

Yes he was... Lol

[Optional]

Opti this event at RAC Arena in Perth WA, Australia you should have attended live buddy. Your home town no?

About the same Distance from LA to Atlanta.

Perth wacky west coast people.

[gauchojake]

Bogans

[JIBBBY]

About the same Distance from LA to Atlanta.

Perth wacky west coast people.

Alrighty then. Are you near Melbourne and or Syney then on the East coast? I thought you were from Perth for some reason.


Well, we aaarrre seeing some good competitive fights so far Mateys! I'm liking it so far!

[Optional]

Alrighty then. Are you near Melbourne and or Syney then on the East coast? I thought you were from Perth for some reason.


Well, we aaarrre seeing some good competitive fights so far Mateys! I'm liking it so far!

I lived in Sydney most of my life. Did a tree change and bought a rural property at start of covid. About 4 hours drive north of Sydney now

[Nate rasta]

Rude boy brown

[JIBBBY]

Calling out Patty the Batty might not be a good idea..

[Machba]

Gotta take a shot on Volk at +300 to become champ champ

[Demonata]

Just got back from playing ball. Time to watch some ufc!!! Everyone good luck on your bets! I'm just watching for fun.

[JIBBBY]

One of the better ball shots I've seen in a fight. OUCH! Heel to the family jewels on a wheel kick. You don't wanna feel that!

He came back and won though with the choke.

[Nate rasta]

Gotta take a shot on Volk at +300 to become champ champ

I agree, good luck. Interesting I see the over-under at three and a half rounds if the fight does go that long that's got a favor Volk