9:20 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY JANUARY 25: We’ve hit the midway mark of the week and most books are dealing Eagles -2.5 as an expensive favorite, with the vig indicating a potential move to -3. But as we saw on Tuesday morning, books that tested the waters at a field goal spread took immediate play on San Francisco +3 and moved back to +2.5 within 10 minutes of the adjustment.
With operators reporting one-sided ticket count and handle on the Eagles (DraftKings reporting 77% of money and bets), bookies can tick the spread to 49ers +3 whenever the liability on Philadelphia gets high.
As for the total, after a brief dip to 45.5 with early play on the Under, the number is back to the opener of 46 points and as high as 46.5. DraftKings is reporting 60% of ticket count and 57% of the handle on the Under, which is a drop in money on the Under which was drawing 67% of the handle earlier in the week.
9:45 A.M. ET, WEDNESDAY JANUARY 25: The market was trending high on the Bengals, with Cincinnati -2.5 as the market consensus. However, some sharper sportsbooks were clinging to shorter spreads for the AFC Championship Game before respected betting groups (sharps)grabbed the additional points with the Chiefs +2.5 at home on Wednesday evening.
That influence has dropped the consensus to Cincinnati -1.5 with a number of books dealing Bengals -1. According to DraftKings sportsbooks, which has followed those market moves, they’re still heavy on Cincy action with 77% of bets and 85% of handle on the road team. All eyes are on the right ankle of Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes and if he will practice at all this week after suffering a high ankle sprain in the AFC Divisional Round.
The sharper opinion on KC +2.5 could give a window into his health, with bigger betting groups banking on Mahomes to be mobile enough. The total after moved up on that Chiefs action, jumping from 46.5 points up to 47.5 and sharper sportsbooks, however, there are some 47-point numbers still available. DraftKings is reporting 69% of bets and 54% of handle on the Over in the AFC Championship Game.
i expect this to move again and again as we get closer to game day
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why big moves on spreads for finals
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