1. #1
    SBR Andy
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    Overreaction to Packers comeback win?

    Are oddsmakers overreacting to Green Bay's come from behind win against Dallas on Sunday? After closing +4 at home and being down much of the game, they are now -3 on a short week against Tennessee.

    The Titans are no world beaters and did not look overly impressive against the Broncos, but Henry should have success against the Packers' 26th ranked rush D. While the Titans' pass D is a concern, Rodgers looked to be nursing a sore thumb and GB may be reluctant to employ a pass-heavy offense (only threw 20 times against Dallas).

    The TEN +3.5 at DraftKings is tempting in what should be a close game. Any reason to take the Packers?
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  2. #2
    pologq
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    on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.

  3. #3
    USCPHILLYGUY
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    I’m all over Tenn +3.5

  4. #4
    brock
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    Look elsewhere. Coin flip with the spread. Never know about
    the Packers after a win.

  5. #5
    goduke
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    The idea is if Green Bay loses another game(since they will lose to Philly most likely) they are done so every game for them is the season. I think the line is right. I'm on Rodgers, I'd rather take a loss with him on this game then miss him rattling off a bunch of wins in a row on small lines. The reward is worth the risk of backing Green Bay till they lose one

  6. #6
    pavyracer
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    I think this will be a game where the better coach wins as the QB play is equivalent for both teams.

  7. #7
    jackpot269
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    Like the Titians in this spot!

  8. #8
    asiagambler
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    Under looks too obvious but I still expected a number in the 30's

  9. #9
    Nate rasta
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    I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?

  10. #10
    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?
    It's just a reversion to the mean play, the books are aware, most people (like you) who focus on last week usually lose.

  11. #11
    jjgold
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    coin flip like every game

  12. #12
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate rasta View Post
    I agree with this. Also why is Dallas favored in minnesota? Am I missing something?
    minnesota is not a great team. they are good but not great. they also should have lost last week.

  13. #13
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by goduke View Post
    The idea is if Green Bay loses another game(since they will lose to Philly most likely) they are done so every game for them is the season. I think the line is right. I'm on Rodgers, I'd rather take a loss with him on this game then miss him rattling off a bunch of wins in a row on small lines. The reward is worth the risk of backing Green Bay till they lose one


    same. if i go down on a thurs night i go down with rodgers in lambeau. i got it less than a fg so i am happy.

  14. #14
    SamsNCharge99
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    Rodgers at home

    gotta stop the run

  15. #15
    Nate rasta
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    minnesota is not a great team. they are good but not great. they also should have lost last week.
    I agree but I feel like they're a notch above Dallas and Minnesota is at home.just my humble opinion

  16. #16
    SBR Andy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.
    Got that in at the right time. Up to -165 to -170 most places now.

  17. #17
    jjgold
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    every week is a new week
    NFL lines are priced perfectly

  18. #18
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    on a short week i like the packers at home to pull out a win. already bet ML at like -140 sunday night. i think they have some swagger and this is a good spot for them.
    I would bet GB at ML -140. I would also bet Tenn +3.5-110. Both are good wagers.

  19. #19
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    every week is a new week
    NFL lines are priced perfectly
    lolol when? When is it priced perfectly?

  20. #20
    stackz125
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I think this will be a game where the better coach wins as the QB play is equivalent for both teams.
    Whose the better coach?

    Both make bone head play calling

  21. #21
    TommieGunshot
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    every week is a new week
    NFL lines are priced perfectly
    Right now I could bet either -3 or +3.5. It is not possible that they are both priced perfectly. If it is true that there is no value in betting the NFL, there must be value betting when getting the best number.

    Could also bet moneyline -160 or a +163. Or just bet both. Not hard to earn profits at those numbers, especially in the NFL.

  22. #22
    jjgold
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    small play Tenn
    Under

  23. #23
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    lolol when? When is it priced perfectly?
    Most of the games on the board usually look dead on that's why you bet more live.

  24. #24
    Nate rasta
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    Tennessee defense should feast on wounded Rogers

  25. #25
    Booya711
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    GB is beating the Titans and cowboys are beating the Vikings

  26. #26
    JIBBBY
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    Over reaction to both the Packers and Bucs perhaps. They both still have some deficiencies. I will fade them both when they face a really good team.

  27. #27
    SBR Andy
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Over reaction to both the Packers and Bucs perhaps. They both still have some deficiencies. I will fade them both when they face a really good team.
    And to Philly too? The lookahead line at Indy for this week was 10.5. After their upset loss to Washington and Indy barely squeaking by the hopeless Raiders, the spread is down to 6.5. I know Eagles spreads were getting a bit inflated, but that's a big adjustment moving across 10 and 7.

  28. #28
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Andy View Post
    And to Philly too? The lookahead line at Indy for this week was 10.5. After their upset loss to Washington and Indy barely squeaking by the hopeless Raiders, the spread is down to 6.5. I know Eagles spreads were getting a bit inflated, but that's a big adjustment moving across 10 and 7.
    Eagles have a good team but they were plagued with turnovers in their last game loss. I can see them coming back next week and covering. I don't think they are overrated just yet.

  29. #29
    jjgold
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    Dallas gave them the game let’s not forget it

    Another must win Packers

    Weather report?

  30. #30
    SBR Andy
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Eagles have a good team but they were plagued with turnovers in their last game loss. I can see them coming back next week and covering. I don't think they are overrated just yet.
    Yeah I meant overreaction to the loss. Might be a play on spot for Philly to bounce back.

  31. #31
    manny24
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    Titan up

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    texhooper gave manny24 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  32. #32
    GunShard
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    Packers are known to be the best at home. I would only bet the Titans when they play at home.

  33. #33
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  34. #34
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by GunShard View Post
    Packers are known to be the best at home. I would only bet the Titans when they play at home.
    Huh? Titans are 3-2 on the road. Only losses were in KC and buff.

  35. #35
    GunShard
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Huh? Titans are 3-2 on the road. Only losses were in KC and buff.
    Titans 3-1 at home 2022, 6-3 at home in 2021, 4-4 on the road in 2021.
    Aaron Rodgers Packers is still good as Mahomes Chiefs and Allen Bills.
    If I am correct, the Titans lose the spread @KC @BUF @GB

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