[arie1985]

On the 10th of December 2022 Paddy the baddy is going to fight against Jared Gordon.
I've watched them both, but especially Paddy - Paddy is the new Khabib "The Eagle" normagomedov or however you spell his last name (it's like asking me to spell Arnold Sch...... whatever you spell there lol)....

Anwyay Paddy Pimblett is a beast, he's an animal in the cage, Jared Gordon has 0 chances against this guy, 0 chances, it might be over in 10 seconds or less of round 1.

I don't mind to "invest" a big chunk like $10,000 and put it all on the Baddy ...

The trouble is the event is too far away in terms of times, and most bookies don't even have it open and the odds will definitely change against me if I wait....

So I'm thinking, what to do?

The bookies in the UK have it open, especially the betting shops, I can easily go from 1 shop to another all across London, bet £300 on the Baddy in each shop and save those slips and cash them later in December but it's hectic ....

Also some crypto sites have it available but I think I'd be limited to $500 - $1000 max on it.

$10,000 on the Baddy now = $5800 winnings

Trust me, 2-3 weeks from now, $10,000 on the Baddy will yield maybe $3,000 or less, no way they are offering so much on the Baddy now, the bookies just haven't set the odds right yet since the event is in December...

I don't want to lose this opportunity on the one hand, but on the other hand what's the best thing to do? Wait 1-2 more weeks until Stake opens it and then easily bet it all in Stake? (Stake is happily accepting large UFC bets, they are one of the sponsors of the UFC)... I'm just worried the odds will drop to 1.4 or so, so just "sacrifice" $1,000 here for the sake of the peace of mind I can use 1 single site for this large bet?

What do you think?

[Kermit]

I like Paddy, but he is not the new Khabib. I am always a little nervous when I bet on him because he does get clipped and has been in trouble before.

If you think that he is a lock to win and will crush Gordon, then why not bet on him ITD to win more money?

[arie1985]

i like paddy, but he is not the new khabib. I am always a little nervous when i bet on him because he does get clipped and has been in trouble before.

If you think that he is a lock to win and will crush gordon, then why not bet on him itd to win more money?

itd = ?

[Kermit]

itd = ?

Inside the distance.

[arie1985]

Inside the distance.

I don't like taking unnecessary risks - he should win without going to distance, but in case something happens, who knows, you want to protect your investment, not to take a "long shot" with $10k...

For me a straight bet is the best one, no need to further speculate....

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Paddy will win this fight but the next Khabib?

Paddy fights very recklessly and allows himself to balloon up to around 200 pounds between fights.

If he continues on this path, he will lose eventually as he moves up the ranks.

I do like him in this matchup though and good luck on your wager, arie...

[str]

All I know is over time, 1-2 shots in anything, are death valley.

Good luck if you play.

[jjgold]

stay far away he might be more of a hype machine

[magpie878]

DraftKings (NJ) has Paddy's line available. ML only.

Pimblett -165
Gordon +140

[arie1985]

Paddy fights very recklessly and allows himself to balloon up to around 200 pounds between fights.

He actually fights with a lot of consistence (like Khabib - who actually on Youtube as a kid - has a video showing him LOSING!!!!! not in the UFC but it's still a loss - and you learn from it).

Now food-wise:

There's a guy in my office, drinks Diet Coke all the times, all the times, like nuts (and almonds) - he is slim, so slim, and I can't get how ... if I drink 1 cup of Diet Coke in makes me so hungry and I'd gain weight...

So food-wise ... look, every person, every human being is different - if for Paddy eating Pizzas is doing it - who cares? The guy is not fat at all, on the contrary ... he's like Boris Johnson, makes you feel like he's weak but he keeps on winning (just BJ was an ass for his stupid dumb Brexit execution but let's put it asides).

If he had short hair, like Dustin Porier - would you respect Paddy more? The fact he looks funny or act funny is meaningless - the results just speak for themselves.

This guy is a true warrior, I do respect Jared Gordon though, he is humble and he is a good fighter, but i just cannot see how he can win against Paddy, odds of 58% yields don't justify the true odds in my opinion, and Paddy's odds might drop sooner rather than later.

For now I'm staying asides, but I feel like I'd be sorry for it once the odds really start dropping.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

He actually fights with a lot of consistence (like Khabib - who actually on Youtube as a kid - has a video showing him LOSING!!!!! not in the UFC but it's still a loss - and you learn from it).

Now food-wise:

There's a guy in my office, drinks Diet Coke all the times, all the times, like nuts (and almonds) - he is slim, so slim, and I can't get how ... if I drink 1 cup of Diet Coke in makes me so hungry and I'd gain weight...

So food-wise ... look, every person, every human being is different - if for Paddy eating Pizzas is doing it - who cares? The guy is not fat at all, on the contrary ... he's like Boris Johnson, makes you feel like he's weak but he keeps on winning (just BJ was an ass for his stupid dumb Brexit execution but let's put it asides).

If he had short hair, like Dustin Porier - would you respect Paddy more? The fact he looks funny or act funny is meaningless - the results just speak for themselves.

This guy is a true warrior, I do respect Jared Gordon though, he is humble and he is a good fighter, but i just cannot see how he can win against Paddy, odds of 58% yields don't justify the true odds in my opinion, and Paddy's odds might drop sooner rather than later.

For now I'm staying asides, but I feel like I'd be sorry for it once the odds really start dropping.

His eating habits and lack of strategic fighting will catch up to him eventually.

Don;t get me wrong, I like him but he comes out like a bat out of hell and just goes wild berserker mode throwing caution to the wind in his fights....against higher level opponents, he will need to make some changes, just my .02..

[arie1985]

Don;t get me wrong, I like him but he comes out like a bat out of hell and just goes wild berserker mode throwing caution to the wind in his fights....against higher level opponents, he will need to make some changes, just my .02..

I agree, but Jared Gordon, his opponent had a good fight against Charles Oliveiera and Charles had a fight against the no. 1 today, Islam Machashev - who's as closer as possible to be Khabib.

So these are the top level ones, Paddy is there, I wish Islam could fight against Paddy - that is the true main event of the UFC, and that is an event I would never bet on, but Paddy vs Gordon - this is like 'free money' sitting on the table, the bookies will adjust the odds, they would have to, it's on the 10th of December, now is only October, they got time - but they would bring the odds down for sure, no way they would offer on the 9th of December, a day before the event - odds of 1.58 (or 1.61 in DraftKings) on Paddy, they would lose lots of money if they do that.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I agree, but Jared Gordon, his opponent had a good fight against Charles Oliveiera and Charles had a fight against the no. 1 today, Islam Machashev - who's as closer as possible to be Khabib.

So these are the top level ones, Paddy is there, I wish Islam could fight against Paddy - that is the true main event of the UFC, and that is an event I would never bet on, but Paddy vs Gordon - this is like 'free money' sitting on the table, the bookies will adjust the odds, they would have to, it's on the 10th of December, now is only October, they got time - but they would bring the odds down for sure, no way they would offer on the 9th of December, a day before the event - odds of 1.58 (or 1.61 in DraftKings) on Paddy, they would lose lots of money if they do that.

Islam would destroy Paddy...

I agree with you that Paddy should beat Gordon, the only way I can see Gordon winning is if is able to take him down and keep him down. That said, I'm fairly shocked at the line on this fight....figured Pimblett would be a bigger favorite.

[arie1985]

Islam would destroy Paddy...

I agree with you that Paddy should beat Gordon, the only way I can see Gordon winning is if is able to take him down and keep him down. That said, I'm fairly shocked at the line on this fight....figured Pimblett would be a bigger favorite.

Well said.
Would you bet on an event 1.5 months from now at these odds or this is just "too much" to sweat?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Well said.
Would you bet on an event 1.5 months from now at these odds or this is just "too much" to sweat?

I agree with your initial thoughts, the line will probably get worse as the fight gets closer.

Seems best to get your wager down sooner than later?

[arie1985]

I agree with your initial thoughts, the line will probably get worse as the fight gets closer.

Seems best to get your wager down sooner than later?

That's what I think to be honest...



Not sure how to do it in the best way....

[JAKEPEAVY21]

That's what I think to be honest...



Not sure how to do it in the best way....

I'd probably just try to place the wager at numerous REPUTABLE books where you will have no issues getting the money out after the fight.

[arie1985]

I'd probably just try to place the wager at numerous REPUTABLE books where you will have no issues getting the money out after the fight.

[OldBill]

yup sure bet on fixed fights how easy it is to bet on the underdog and take a dive any fighter can do it

[gooner89]

On the 10th of December 2022 Paddy the baddy is going to fight against Jared Gordon.
I've watched them both, but especially Paddy - Paddy is the new Khabib "The Eagle" normagomedov or however you spell his last name (it's like asking me to spell Arnold Sch...... whatever you spell there lol)....

Anwyay Paddy Pimblett is a beast, he's an animal in the cage, Jared Gordon has 0 chances against this guy, 0 chances, it might be over in 10 seconds or less of round 1.

I don't mind to "invest" a big chunk like $10,000 and put it all on the Baddy ...

The trouble is the event is too far away in terms of times, and most bookies don't even have it open and the odds will definitely change against me if I wait....

So I'm thinking, what to do?

The bookies in the UK have it open, especially the betting shops, I can easily go from 1 shop to another all across London, bet £300 on the Baddy in each shop and save those slips and cash them later in December but it's hectic ....

Also some crypto sites have it available but I think I'd be limited to $500 - $1000 max on it.

$10,000 on the Baddy now = $5800 winnings

Trust me, 2-3 weeks from now, $10,000 on the Baddy will yield maybe $3,000 or less, no way they are offering so much on the Baddy now, the bookies just haven't set the odds right yet since the event is in December...

I don't want to lose this opportunity on the one hand, but on the other hand what's the best thing to do? Wait 1-2 more weeks until Stake opens it and then easily bet it all in Stake? (Stake is happily accepting large UFC bets, they are one of the sponsors of the UFC)... I'm just worried the odds will drop to 1.4 or so, so just "sacrifice" $1,000 here for the sake of the peace of mind I can use 1 single site for this large bet?

What do you think?

Are you based in the UK? What I've found in the past is that if you call up one of the online books using their dial-a-bet number, like Paddy Power or Bet365, they'll sometimes allow a larger stake than the website would. This is because those lines are normally manned by traders themselves. Even if they allowed £5,000 each that's only two places instead of the dozens you were thinking of before.

[Machba]

No local casino nearby?
JMO go to local casino and make 4 bets $2500.00 on each
AND GOOD LUCK

[Machba]

Just read you can only put 300 per casino. WTF . Why do they not want action?

[arie1985]

Are you based in the UK? What I've found in the past is that if you call up one of the online books using their dial-a-bet number, like Paddy Power or Bet365, they'll sometimes allow a larger stake than the website would. This is because those lines are normally manned by traders themselves. Even if they allowed £5,000 each that's only two places instead of the dozens you were thinking of before.

Yes, I have some UK accounts to use, I will try them all - thanks!

[arie1985]

Just read you can only put 300 per casino. WTF . Why do they not want action?

Because it's too early and they don't want a huge exposure whilst the odds are not reflecting the true value here likewise.

[gooner89]

Because it's too early and they don't want a huge exposure whilst the odds are not reflecting the true value here likewise.

Also, to add to this, there are tons of betting shops in London, we are talking 100s, but the majority are owned and operated by the same 3 or 4 companies. This could prove a problem when it comes to payout as the companies may feel you tried to bypass the shop's max stake and they would void a lot of the bets.

So you're right, I don't see the £300 per shop as a viable option.

Besides, when they start to see the money coming in, they'll move the odds quicker than you can move from one shop to another.

[arie1985]

Also, to add to this, there are tons of betting shops in London, we are talking 100s, but the majority are owned and operated by the same 3 or 4 companies. This could prove a problem when it comes to payout as the companies may feel you tried to bypass the shop's max stake and they would void a lot of the bets.

So you're right, I don't see the £300 per shop as a viable option.

Besides, when they start to see the money coming in, they'll move the odds quicker than you can move from one shop to another.

Right - that's why I'm talking about placing the bets now and not close to the event which by then won't make the bets worth as much as they are worth now (i.e. 58% yields i.e. 1.58 odds)

[TommieGunshot]

With a zero percent chance of losing, the correct way to maximize earnings is to bet as much as absolutely possible. By only betting $10,000 instead of a lot more, you are actually losing a lot of value and hurting your income.

There is the possible risk that the fight is canceled, and you lose all expenses.

[pavyracer]

This is how you take a flight from the US to UK. You first have to get a passport. Then book a flight from a US airport that has flights to the UK.

You said the fight is on Dec 11. So if you fly today will you stay there until the fight to get paid for your bets? This is like 6 weeks of hotel accomodations plus food, etc. Or do you plan to fly back to the US and then fly back on Dec 11th to cash the tickets?

Either option you choose your expenses will be more than the $5800 payout.

[magpie878]

I never, ever bet this far ahead. But after reading this and looking into it, I feel like I should throw some on Paddy right now.

[jjgold]

-165 is not a big favorite

Crazy bet

[Auto Donk]

-165 is not a big favorite

Crazy bet

exactly, save the ten k for a stone cold lock........

like betting the under, as in under 1 1/2":

[USCPHILLYGUY]

-170 now in NJ

[Optional]

Can anyone sense a forum burial approaching?

[JohnGalt2341]

I hope you Win and you probably will, but just keep this in mind. In MMA, ANYTHING can happen. Back in 2009 I felt the same way about a young and up and coming Jon Jones. This was way back when the Books were pretty terrible at pricing MMA odds. I think I got Jones at -140 or something like that vs Matt Hamill. I had him in several parlays and Round Robins,.... I had several hundred dollars on him. He got called on a bogus DQ that the Ref gave him no warnings about. I was PISSED!!!!

I've also been burned on other MMA bets as well but that one stung the most because he was dominating the fight and I would have won a quite a bit if it wasn't for the damn ref.

[chargers4222]

Hey everyone, have a bit of a dilemma here, need some help.

On Friday, October 28th, a poster on the SBR Forum provided me with the fade opportunity of a lifetime, comparing a hype machine who has fought absolutely no one to one of the top three MMA fighters of all time. He has made this false equivalence, determined this pick to be a "lock," and gone so far as to consider flying across the world to place this bet, as if the linesmakers are not aware of how "short" the odds seem to the average mook such as this poster.

My question is, how much should I fade this with? My entire life savings? Should I sell some possessions first to make even more money, or perhaps steal money from some family members/local businesses to boost the bet amount? Also, where should I retire afterwards?

Any advice is appreciated, thanks in advance.